Oh, We Talkin' Teams: Week Two

By Jarrett Felix

Well boys and girls, for the first time this season, I’m revealing my state rankings. I threw in some “Commenter Hot Takes” and some “Past Comparisons” to help keep things fun and interesting. (Although I ended up changing the exact wording of both of those once I actually started writing) Hopefully, you guys like it. If not … well … there’s not anything I can do about it really at this point. So that’s kinda the end of that.

I’m ranking only teams that have raced an invite so far. Just to clarify, that means I’m only ranking the teams that have raced an invite so far. So any team that hasn’t raced an invite so far, they aren’t going to be in the rankings. 

12. Seneca Valley

Historical Comparison

2010 Great Valley

The Reader’s Hot Takes

(none)

Etrain’s Thoughts

Look at this! I couldn’t even find any blog commenter hot takes for this team! That’s how under the radar they are flying right now. The boys from SV, who finished second a year ago at the WPIAL championships, put together a very nice 1-2 punch at RWB behind sophomore Sam Owori running sub 17 (something no NA Tiger did remember). Seth Ketler, another sophomore with big potential, and Luke Bellack (junior) took the 3-4 spots with Christian Resch and Max Weaver rounding out the sub 18s.

Only Razanauskus is a senior, so they are definitely young. And they lost their marquee low stick from last year, Mike Kolor. But they were a sneaky deep track program last year that qualified for states in the 4x8 and was all state indoors in the DMR (Kolor anchored big, but the other guys really set him up). Don’t forget about this team down the stretch and for years to come. They are young for sure and it’s unclear if the WPIAL is as deep as it has been in the past, but they will contend for another top 2 spot which makes them a top 10 contender come states.

11. CB East

Historical Comparison

2010 North Penn

The Reader’s Hot Takes

“I feel the experience last year at states and being around Brophy will make them competitive week after week.”

“To me, experience is oh so vital when trying to match up with the big boys at districts.”

Etrain’s Thoughts

I think I might call these guys the early season favorite for a new award I’m cooking up to pair with the Etrain Award (see weekend recap part 2). I’m calling it the Uncle Drew Award. For those of you who haven’t seen the Uncle Drew commercials, 1) youtube search it, they are fun and 2) notice the way Kyrie says “Young Blood” a lot. CB East is the “Young Blood” squad with a ton of talent in the sophomore class and a strong supporting cast of upperclassmen to push them. David Endres looks like a legit #1. He’s going to get more consistent with time as he grows into this front running role, but he’s got a shot to be a state medalist come November and that’s a legit low stick.

But they are just so young it scares an old guy like me. Let’s see how much they learned from Jake and Josh (not to be confused with Drake and Josh) when they go up against some of the real big dogs in the coming weeks.

10. Mount Lebanon

Historical Comparison

2012 Great Valley

The Reader’s Hot Takes

“Big mention of the meet goes to Mount Lebanon’s JV team who beat North Allegheny’s JV.”

Etrain’s Thoughts

Do you think the Lebo guys ever wonder what it would be like if North Allegheny wasn’t in the WPIAL? After losing their top 3 runners from the state meet a year ago (a top 3 that was one of the best around and helped carry them into the top 10), they once again emerge as contenders in District 7 to make yet another state championship. And they’ve really developed the depth nicely behind Bryce Brandenstein, a big talent entering his junior season with a lot of experience. Their JV team deserves props for their run, but let’s not overlook the varsity crew here. Cameron, Dewitt and a very talented freshman in Patrick Anderson really impressed as the makings of a capable pack in a box and one scenario. This team is not ready to go away quietly.

9. Mechanicsburg

Historical Comparison

2009 North Penn

The Reader’s Hot Takes

“Also shout out to Mechanicsburg putting together a race for 6^th place!”

Etrain’s Thoughts

This might be bold. It might be a little crazy. But I’m in on Mechanicsburg. I think if they make it out of District 3, they have really good odds at a top 10 finish and an outside chance at top 5. Now that’s relying on a few key assumptions. I’m banking on Tomasko and Cupp as medalists this season. I think Cupp has a chance to be an animal this year (top 10-15 at states) and seeing Tomasko with him is a great sign. I also think Sulon has the chance to be a very solid #3. Seeing the arrival of an up and coming sophomore Michael Vigliano at the #4 spot to pair with Knepper (who showed some real flashes of brilliance last season) could be a sign that they will piece together a capable 4-5, especially as the young guns continue to grow and mature.

The upside here is substantial and this team is built perfectly for the state meet. Look at 2015 O’Hara, 2014 Easton, 2012 LaSalle, 2009 Unionville, and 2009 North Penn and tell me you couldn’t potentially see Mechanicsburg following their blue print and making noise.

8. Spring Ford

Historical Comparison

2014 CB West

Reader Comments

“Spring Ford is a lock to be a state qualifying team IMO.”

“Like DTW, they’ve got a tight spread, but if they can find a top 25 finish at districts in someone like Smith, then they’ll be in business.”

Etrain’s Thoughts

I’m ready to go higher on this team, but I’ll hold back a bit until they get a 5k under their belt. This young team showed some serious pack running ability in 2015, nearly carrying a tight spread to the state championships out of district one. They had three sophomores in their top 5 a year ago, but those youngsters are now juniors who could make big jumps. Zach Smith has been the best of the bunch on the grass, but it’s worth noting that Jake McKenna had a monster track campaign this spring. He might be a breakout star in ’16. I want to see exactly what they have at the 5, 6 and 7 spot, but from what I can make of the splits at Quad XC, they seem to have a very nice balance. It’s depth few teams can boast about at this early stage of the game.

7. Parkland

Historical Comparison

2009 Conrad Wesier

The Reader’s Hot Takes

“I am feeling strong about them being in the top 7 teams right now.”

Etrain’s Thoughts

I’ve been a bit skeptical of Parkland heading into this season. I wasn’t ready to put them in the top 10. And considering some of the schools that haven’t raced yet, maybe they won’t stay here. But it’s hard to deny the depth this team had on a hilly Centaur course. It’s also worth mentioning that Parkland’s pack has been to states each of the past two seasons with the goal of fighting for a top 10 spot. They didn’t quite get there the past two, but they did gain a ton of experience on the Hershey hills. That paid off in a big way for Michael Geiger who, now a senior, is potentially a medal threat, something that would really help push their pack up the field.

Morgan proved during track he’s a tremendous talent and a clutch performer who could make a jump entering his junior season and Bower really impressed at Centaur as Parkland’s #2 runner (just a sophomore). Steve Kaleycik and Riley Williamson are also back after racing at states a year ago. 

6. Cumberland Valley

Historical Comparison

2011 CR North

The Reader’s Hot Takes

“This is a notable top 3 now … I like this front 3 pack and now we see a solidified 4-5 from this team. I would move them into the top 10 team rankings.”

Etrain’s Thoughts           

Cumberland Valley is kind of like the Council Rock North of District 3. Every year, you can basically pencil them in for a state qualifying spot and you know they will make a gun run at a top 10 spot. But they have yet to truly scare the top 5 in the state. Part of that is likely due to the fact that they used to have to run Hershey back to back and, for the second year in a row, they won’t have to worry about that this time around. Seeing Josh Higgins and Yahya Soliman out front at PTXC was huge for this team as those guys are probably 2 of the more talented runners they’ve had in recent history. If they are healthy and strong this year, they both have top 30 potential in the state. But Andrew Brown has been their most consistent performer of late and may be the most important.

I’m a big proponent of the top 3 theory (a team’s #3 runner is the biggest indicator of future success at states) especially this early in the year, but I also like this squad’s potential to develop some magic at the 4-5 spot. Their most recent track season was extremely encouraging as well and, often times, that momentum carries straight through to the fall.

5. State College

Historical Comparison

2008 CR North

The Reader’s Hot Takes

“State College looked pretty good through 4.”

Etrain’s Thoughts

SC has quietly become an XC powerhouse. Altoona used to rule the district with two top 5 finishes at states in 2009 and 2010, but now the Little Lions are controlling the one qualifying seat and have added their own top 5 finish (4^th in 2013) and three different state medalists in three years. One of those state medalists, 1:53 open 800 runner Nick Feffer, is back this season and has already faced some top notch competition and race admirably. SC’s Owen Isham and Mitchell Etter have taken a big leap to join Owen Wing (1:56/4:23 type) in a potent top 4. This group finished in the top 10 in both of their first invites (although Etter ran JV in week one) and, although there is a bit of a drop off to the 5 spot, there are very few teams who have proven they go five deep. But even if they don’t get a world beater at the 5 spot, I really like what I’ve seen from their top 4 so far and I think they will contend for the top 5 at a state championship meet that should favor their front loaded squad.

I still need to see these guys against a deep AAA field to know just how potent that top 4 is, but I’m high on these guys. Let’s see how they continue to progress heading toward Foundation.

4. DT West

Historical Comparison

2006 WC East

The Reader’s Hot Takes

“DTW is DTW and far and away the top Chesmont squad.”

“They really lack the power up front that they had last year, but Barton, O’Neill, Bullock is a monstrous 1-2-3.”

Etrain’s Thoughts

I think I’ve covered the whole “defending champion” angle when I broke down West’s chances in the preseason. So far, they’ve really impressed me with respect to their depth. It looks like the program has developed some young guys who are excited to chase spots on varsity for the two-time defending chesmont champs. As was mentioned, their top 3 is sneaky good and Bullock is the big reason why through two meets. The most important thing for this team in my opinion is consistency. That should bring confidence heading into the postseason for the newcomers.

The battle for the 5-7 spots on this team seems really exciting and maybe one of Bullock-O’Neill-Barton-Alansky will even be treading water to stay in the starting line-up. That’s a great sign and a real testament to the depth of a squad that lost 4 of their top 5 from last year’s state championships.

3. Council Rock North

Historical Comparison

2011 North Penn

The Reader’s Hot Takes

“They didn’t wow at PTXC, but Keller is developing as a real ace for the team, and when you have a program like that with that much depth, no team has stepped up enough to take this #1 (in the district) spot.”

Etrain’s Thoughts

North has been one of the most consistent programs in the state over the past decade, qualifying for states every year out of the loaded District One. But they’ve yet to break into the top 2 at states during any of those seasons, peaking at 3^rd place in 2012 behind a monster top 3. This year’s team might be good enough to flip the script. It was great to see Bryan Keller burst onto the scene as a front runner at PTXC and Haas was one of the more noteworthy performances as well.

The thing about North is they always start slow. I can’t emphasize this enough. Always. I’d have to double check the specifics, but when they placed 3^rd at states in 2012, I’m fairly sure they placed 2^nd or 3^rd at the Viking Invitational behind Pennsbury (who didn’t end up qualifying for states) in their season opener. So to start of the year with a strong run at PTXC could indicate a big year.

Honestly, I won’t know how good this team is until probably leagues. But I like what I’ve seen so far. If they can tighten up the pack just a little bit, they will contend for gold come November.

2. North Allegheny

Historical Comparison

2009 LaSalle

The Reader’s Hot Takes

“Don’t get me wrong, a 7 second spread is insane and they’re the only program in the state who could do that. But they didn’t have anyone break 17.”

“Proved that this team has depth and solid pack runners. It is NA so I think one or two of the runners will eventually step up.”

Etrain’s Thoughts

I’m big on the Tiger bandwagon in 2016. They were my preseason championship pick and I have a hard time letting go of that first instinct. But their first race was a big surprise for me. I wasn’t expecting that kind of spread, but I also wasn’t expecting to see no Tigers in the top 10 overall. When I saw the results, it’s hard not to jump to a few past Tiger squads, both of which were very successful. That would be the 2013 Tigers, who placed 2^nd behind an all-time great Henderson squad, and the 2008 Tigers who finished 3^rd at states but 12^th in the nation. Both of those teams were built on pack running with drooled over spreads like the 7.6 we saw in week one.

But those teams each had three top 30 finishers at the state championship. Right now, the Tigers pack is on the outside looking in for that position. Of course, they have plenty of options for a step up performer. They have exciting new comers in their top 5 and proven veterans in 6 through 8. However, if they put no runners in the top 30 (something they haven’t done in the last decade), they will really struggle to make up the big deficit back to Carlisle.

Last year, across all 3 divisions, Northeast Bradford was the only team to finish ahead of another school that had three runners in before their first. They defeated Winchester Thurston on a 6^th man tiebreaker. 

1. Carlisle

Historical Comparison

2011 Cardinal O’Hara

The Reader’s Hot Takes

“Top 3 really impressing me, 4 is solid. This team most importantly looks to have found decent 5-6 to close some gap.”

Etrain’s Thoughts

At this point, I have a tough time slotting anyone ahead of the Herd. The Affolders are every bit as good as advertised and there’s a chance Noah doesn’t lose a race all season. That includes the National Championships. The team’s near them on the list (NA and CRN) are certainly powerhouses, but as of now they will struggle to break up that top 3. The way to beat Carlisle will be on the back end with a tight pack, but the 4-5-6 spots have been strong for the District 3 crew. I will be watching Jack Wisner in the coming weeks to see how he continues to develop. He’s still just a sophomore with a ton of talent and a lot of times the young guys don’t really come on until late in the year. Jack was the #1 frosh at AAA states a year ago, having one of his best races in one of the biggest moments. That’s the kinda guy who swings state championships.

Interesting note, all of the AAA XC state champions (both individual and team) have come from either District One or North Allegheny. No District 3 team has even cracked the top 5 at states during that time period, but Carlisle came the closest of anyone in 2013 when they finished 6^th (one spot behind CR North).