PA HS XC Top 50: Week Four

By Jarrett Felix

A ton of guys raced this weekend so if you were idle, you probably got bumped from the list despite not doing anything wrong! Sorry to those guys, but I expect most of those guys to be active this coming weekend and they will have their shot to climb back onto the list.

Because there were just so many fast times this past weekend, I’m going to share five big movers from this weekend who jumped way up the list but not quite into the top 50.

Drew Alansky (DT West), Sam Owori (Seneca Valley), Ryan Thursh (Brookville), Frankie King (Greensburg Salem), Christian Groff (Hempfield)

Now to the list. As I’ve done in the past, I bolded the guys who raced this past weekend. There’s a lot of bold …

50. Eric Kersten, Sr Pennsbury (1 AAA)

I’m excited for Kersten’s upside this year. Last year, I believe, was his first year running XC and he showed some flashes of brilliance. He crushed the Hershey course this past weekend and should run something quite fast when he gets to utilize that 1:55 speed on a flatter lay out.

49. Nate Romberger, Sr Red Land (3 AAA)

One of the sneaky big performances over this weekend, Romberger won the Champions race at Carlisle at 16:05. He may have been able to break 16 in the extremely competitive challenge race which would have put him in elite company for the course’s history. But until Nate goes head to head with the big names in District 3, I’m not ready to declare him a medal contender for states just yet.

48. Patrick Jacobson, Sr Dallastown (3 AAA)

47. Josh Higgins, Sr Cumberland Valley (3 AAA)

46. Eric Kennedy, Sr Kiski Area (7 AAA)

45. Evan Addison, Jr LaSalle (12 AAA)

Nice bounce back race from Addison this weekend at Foundation. LaSalle had a big day at Hershey and moved themselves up the contenders list for a team title, but a lot of their success may hang on Addison (and Stephen Paul who just missed this week) jumping into the medals.

44. Bryan Keller, Sr CR North (1 AAA)

43. Mark Brown, So Greensburg Salem (7 AA)

42. Nick Norton, Sr Hempfield (3 AAA)

Hempfield has had a top 50 finisher each of the past two seasons. They’ve also won back to back district championships. After a strong showing at Carlisle, you have to keep this team in mind as a sleeper, led by the experienced Norton.

41. Andrew Sullivan, Jr Hershey (3 AAA)

Sullivan ran 4:21 for 1600m last year. That’s a monster time. I believe this is first season of XC so, as we saw already, he will grow a lot with each race. Carlisle was already a big jump from PTXC so this may just be the beginning of his ascent.

40. Ryan Campbell, Jr CR North (1 AAA)

39. Matt Scarpill, Sr CB South (1 AAA)

I’m excited to watch Scarpill this season. He’s been consistently in the 4:20s for 1600m and he broke 16 last year in XC as a junior while also having a sneaky good regionals race in the post season. If he can improve his consistency in 2016, he’s going to be a real force.

38. Ben Littman, Sr Winchester Thurston (7 A)

Although Forsythe has dominated a lot of the headlines, the senior Littman has been extremely consistent dating back to last track season. He has two XC state medals, an outdoor 3200m state medal and now two top 3 XC finishes to start 2016. Considering Littman is a guy who tends to do his best running at the year’s most important meets, he’s got some nice upside looking ahead.

37. Evan Hutton, Sr William Tennent (1 AAA)

36. Avery Lederer, Jr Penncrest (1 AAA)

35. Matt D’Aquila, Sr Lower Merion (1 AAA)

Who’s the top dog in the Central League this year? On this list, James Abrahams has been ranked in the top spot, but these two both made big statements about their potential to challenge him before the year ends.

34. Shaun Bullock, Sr DT West (1 AAA)

33. Noah Curtin, Sr Mercyhurst Prep (10 A)

32. Jonah Powell, So Grove City (10 AA)

31. Gavin Inglis, Sr O’Hara (12 AAA)

Inglis has had a huge start to the season. He has been 4^th and 5^th in his first two meets, losing only to top 20 guys on my list on both occasions. The kid has made a huge jump from mid-pack guy to front-runner and will need to continue to run confidently in that position if O’Hara is going to finish where they want as a team.

30. Seth Slavin, Sr Pleasant Valley (11 AAA)

29. James Abrahams, Sr Haverford (1 AAA)

28. Spencer Smucker, Jr WC Henderson (1 AAA)

27. Casey Conboy, Sr Baldwin (7 AAA)

26. Aaron Pfeil, Sr South Fayette (7 AA)

25. Joe Cullen, Jr Wyomissing (3 AA)

Cullen put on a big sprint finish to beat out Pfeil to the line at Hershey and jump him in the overall rankings, but these guys are certainly neck and neck right now. Between Cullen’s big performance and Romberger’s win at Carlisle (plus York Suburban’s team victory), the Blue Race at PTXC looks like it was, quietly, a pretty stacked field.

24. Connor Walsh, Sr Cambridge Springs (10 A)

23. Jared Giannascoli, Jr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)

22. Isaac Kole, Sr Carlisle (3 AAA)

21. Alex Tomasko, Sr Mechanicsburg (3 AAA)

20. Colton Cassell, Sr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)

Over the last few years, District 3 hasn’t had a ton to brag about at AAA XC States. Last year, the district had just two medalists and only one medalist in 2012 and 2011. But this year, we could potentially see six medalists from two schools (Carlisle and Lower Dauphin) and 8 from three (throw in Mechanicsburg). This is a compelling pack of swing medalists who will all likely provide a big impact on the district and state championship title races as well. Plus, they all ran at least in the low 15:50s at Carlisle (no joke of a time). For those wondering, District One had 12 medalists in AAA last year and has led the state in AAA medalists every year in the past decade plus (although the WPIAL played them tough a couple times). In 2006, they had 19 of the 25 medalists. But this year, the rankings have District 3 AAA individuals slotted for 10 of the top 25 spots while District 1 has 9.

19. Nick Feffer, Sr State College (6 AAA)

18. Ben Bumgarner, Sr Waynesburg Central (7 AA)

Conboy and Bumgarner absolutely crushed the AJ Everhart course this past weekend. It wasn’t a big name meet so it didn’t draw a ton of attention, but they dueled well under 16 minutes on that course, taking it to a territory unlike anything it had seen in recent history. Can’t wait to see Bumgarner take his head to head shot against Skolnekovich (as well as Pfeil and ideally Forsythe) at some point later this year.

17. Morgan Cupp, Jr Mechanicsburg (3 AAA)

16. Tristan Forsythe, Jr Winchester Thurston (7 A)

15. Liam Conway, Jr Owen J Roberts (1 AAA)

14. Isaac Davis, Jr Jersey Shore (4 AA)

The junior class is beginning to hold its own among the seniors on this list. Forsythe and Davis picked up huge wins at Foundation that really impressed me. I’ve been a fan of Davis as a sleeper pick in XC for a while (kid is just a grinder), but Forsythe looks like he’s taken a big step from solid runner to championship runner. Since the move to 3 classifications, there has always been at least one individual junior state champion. Could one of these 4 keep the streak alive?

13. Mark Provenzo, Sr Franklin Regional (7 AAA)

12. Connor McMenamin, Sr Souderton (1 AAA)

11. Kyler Shea, Sr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)

10. Rusty Kujdych, Jr Neshaminy (1 AAA)

9. Ryan James, Sr O’Hara (12 AAA)

8. Liam Galligan, Sr Springfield DELCO (1 AAA)

7. Zach Skolnekovich, Sr Quaker Valley (7 AA)

6. Zach Lefever, Sr Ephrata (3 AAA)

5. Nick Dahl, Sr GFS (Independent)

It tentatively looks like Dahl, Lefever and Galligan will all be at Paul Short battling for a chance to move up the list. That’s going to be a critical match up for list purposes.

4. Josh Hoey, Jr Bishop Shanahan (1 AAA)

3. Sam Affolder, So Carlisle (3 AAA)

2. Nathan Henderson, Sr JP McCaskey (3 AAA)

1. Noah Affolder, Sr Carlisle (3 AAA)

Not much should be too surprising here as the top 4 PA runners at Carlisle capture the top 4 PA spots in this week’s Top 50. You have to be impressed by what Sam Affolder has done this season as a sophomore. He and Josh are both redefining what that class can do at the state level. I think a 1-2 finish for the Affolders is very possible at Hershey this year (when’s the last time a pair of teammates has taken 1-2 at states?). Let’s see what Josh and Nate have to say about it.