And You Know, We're On Each Other's Team: Week Four

 by Jarrett Felix

It's a truly remarkable year in the team title race, so doing these team rankings is quite interesting. A few very strong teams didn't even make the 12 team cut this week which is wild to think about. Because everyone is such a strong team, I decided to list out a "Keys to Winning a State Championship" for each team. As you will see, it's not an exact formula. It's just supposed to be a fun little comment to get you thinking. Hope you enjoy.

12. Winchester Thurston

Mid-Season MVP: Ben Littman

Key to Winning a State Championship: Stay Healthy

The first small school team to crack my list this season is Winchester Thurston. It’s not the team most of us probably expected to get here first, but they definitely earned it with a dominant performance at Foundation. I think Forsythe is for real as a contender and Littman and Hay seem like they could get on the medal stand as well. They have more depth than the past two years as well (one of those years, they won states) and although they will have to lean on some young guys, I think they will handle themselves well. Now they just need to stay healthy and avoid injuries down the stretch (which have hurt them in the past) and they could roll to a second state gold in three years.

11. Mechanicsburg

Mid-Season MVP: Michael Vigliano

Key to Winning a State Championship: Prove They Belong

Mechanicsburg is not one of the traditional super powers in District 3 and right now I’ve got them ranked in the dreaded 5^th spot (only 4 teams go to states from D3). So if they want to be a top 10 team in the state, they are first going to have to prove they belong at the state championship. Cupp and Tomasko are absolute studs to lead the charge and Sulon has always been a consistent performer. The breakthrough has come from sophomore Michael Vigliano who has been fantastic thus far and ran right with Sulon at Carlisle. If they get a mini leap from Knepper (94^th at districts last year as a frosh, so he’s got the potential), then they have a very realistic shot at advancing to states. If they get there, their team set up is ideal for making a run at a top 7 spot.

10. Hempfield

Mid-Season MVP: Max Lessans

Key to Winning a State Championship: Push Districts Peak to States

There’s a lot to like about this Hempfield team. Most notably, the past two years they have peaked at the right time and won the District 3 Championships. However, they haven’t quite been able to match that excellence come the state championship. I think this year may be different as guys like Norton, Groff and Mattes who ran varsity the last two seasons use that extra experience to their advantage. Adding Lessans to the equation as a top 5 guy was big for a team that looks like it is going to have to rely on a pack, similar to what they did in 2014.

9. Cumberland Valley

Mid-Season MVP: Josh Higgins

Key to Winning a State Championship: Get Everyone’s Best at the Same Time

Cumberland Valley always finds a way. In 2014, they were a top 10 team in the state. In 2015, despite a streaky regular season, they turned it on at the perfect time to grab 2^nd at Districts (just 26 points back of Hempfield). This year, they’ve looked much stronger than a year previously and are boasting a monster top 3 with a solid, experienced 4-5. When Higgins, Soliman and Brown are each on, they are monsters. However, it’s been rare to see all three guys at their absolute best on the same day. If it all clicks at districts or states, watch out for these guys to go shooting up the standings.

8. Seneca Valley

Mid-Season MVP: Sam Owori

Key to Winning a State Championship: Run Above Their Age

Could North Allegheny’s WPIAL reign of terror finally be coming to an end? Seneca Valley certainly hopes so after they edged out the Tigers at the Foundation Invitational. SV was led by a pair of sophomores at the front in Sam Owori and Seth Ketler, both of whom will need to prove they can handle the big meet pressure at states if they are going to contend as a top 5 team. The good news is that both guys competed for the varsity squad a year ago (that placed 11^th) and Ketler also ran the lead off leg on their indoor states DMR (that placed 4^th). This program has come on strong in the last three seasons, but now, with a team that includes just one senior, can they topple the traditional powers of the state?

7. North Allegheny

Mid-Season MVP: Clark Smith

Key to Winning a State Championship: Increase their spread

Usually, a team’s goals are not to increase their spread. But we have a rare exception when it comes to the North Allegheny Tigers. Despite a sub 30 second total spread through three weeks (yes, that’s three week’s worth of invitationals, combined, sub 30 seconds), the Tigers were just 4^th at the Foundation meet and were bested by another WPIAL squad as well. But the Tigers were not far away from being the #2 team at Foundation and, considering they have 7 or 8 guys all within 15 seconds or so of one another, they have plenty of guys to choose from to become the breakout star. And maybe the development of one guy, pulls the development of the others?

In 2014, Jacob Stupak was 45^th at Foundation and then 45^th at the State Championships. That’s the kind of development that makes me wonder if I’m doubting this program a little too much.

6. O’Hara

Mid-Season MVP: Gavin Inglis

Key to Winning a State Championship: Embrace the Rivalry

The O’Hara boys won a tight race at Briarwood and then followed that performance with a second place finish at Foundation. Those are two strong performances back to back. However, losing by 75 points to your PCL rivals probably left them with a bitter taste in their mouth all the same. The 44 team race at Foundation did cause a bit of trouble for O’Hara (who had a 1:41 spread), but keep in mind their #4 was right next to Seneca Valley’s #4 and at Briarwood their #4 was ahead of LaSalle’s #5. So if they can get 3 guys in the top 35 at states (like they did in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014) and get solid performances from the #4 and #5 spot, they will be competing for a top 3 position in the state yet again.

The best thing that could happen to them at this point in the year is a big defeat at the hands of LaSalle. These two programs contrary builds should make for an awesome battle all year round that will, ideally, bring out the best from both teams when they return to Hershey in November.

5. Lower Dauphin

Mid-Season MVP: Mark Walsh

Key to Winning a State Championship: Survive District Three

Having an impressive top 3 is nothing new to Lower Dauphin. In 2014, their top 3 crushed the district course with 3 of the top 11. In 2015, they had 3 of the top 16. But both years, their team finished outside of state qualifying (6^th and 9^th). Now this year, the top 3 is probably the best it’s ever been (three guys in the top 25 on my current rankings), but LD will have to avoid déjà vu at districts at the #4 and #5 spots. I thought their 4-5 guys raced great at Carlisle and I really like the track season this team had and what it means for their depth. Just like Mechanicsburg, if they survive the district, they have a great team structure for the state meet. They could conceivably put three guys on the medal stand which would practically guarantee them a top 5 finish in the team standings and could even push them onto the podium.

4. LaSalle

Mid-Season MVP: Brendan Price

Key to Winning a State Championship: Just Be Yourself … But a Tiny Bit Better

Here’s the deal. LaSalle always seems to have an army. They do a great job getting their spread down and their pack roles through the season, peaking very well for the most important meets. All the signs are there for yet another run at a top 5 finish at states (where they were in 2008, 2009, 2012 and 2015). The top 3 is developing very well and the back half of the varsity team took a big step forward at Foundation (and don’t forget about that JV depth). However, LaSalle has just one set of team medals (silvers in 2008) and hasn’t pulled down that coveted gold. Despite their great packs, they haven’t had enough firepower out front to beat the other top programs (their best year out front they placed 5^th with just 5 runners behind 2 all-time great teams). The key will be getting guys on the medal stand and with a returning top 50 finisher (Paul) a sub 4:20 miler (Addison) and a veteran who can do it all from 800 to 5k (Price) maybe they can get it done this year.

3. CR North

Mid-Season MVP: Sam Early

Key to Winning a State Championship: Run as a Team

CR North is always a contender. You don’t make it out of District One by accident. Let alone make it out of District One ten years in a row. North was 5^th as a team last year, using a strong pack to jump up the standings. It was a young pack then, but now the team is a year older, a year more experienced and a year faster. It looks to me like they have a couple medal contenders and lots of guys with top 50 potential. I think if this team progresses like past North squads have and keeps the pack tight at states, they could put 4 guys in the top 50 (Early may have a junior year Arita like finish in him). They’ve definitely still got a shot at the title, even if they didn’t race one of the big meets this past weekend.

2. DT West

Mid-Season MVP: Shaun Bullock

Key to Winning a State Championship: Don’t Let the Race Be 3 on 5

I was wow-ed by this team this past weekend. I’m really just amazed at their incredible depth and their incredible size. They just have so many guys. Now depth alone doesn’t win you state championships, but it sure helps. It looks like no team (besides probably North Allegheny) will be able to lose a top 5 guy and still chug along at a similar pace in the standings. But West could do it. After Alansky’s big race this past weekend, they have 4 guys who at least have the potential to be state medalists.

But that’s the thing. They need to get some guys up into the medal mix because we know Carlisle is going to have at least 2 (and it’s looking like 3). For some reason, I just have this feeling DT West is really going to shine at Hershey assuming they make it there in November (don’t forget, they’ve had their fair share of struggles at Lehigh before). If they can tighten the gap between 1 and 4 (doable) and get a little more out of their 5 (also doable), I think they win states. Honestly, they might be my pick right now.

1. Carlisle

Mid-Season MVP: Isaac Kole

Key to Winning a State Championship: Don’t Stop Chasing

But depth doesn’t win the state championship. You only need 5 guys and right now Carlisle has a heck of a 5. The Affolders look like monsters similar to the Hoey’s that DT West had a year ago. Kole isn’t quite at Sappey’s level (although he ran the same kinda time at Carlisle this year), but he’s no slouch of a #3. I like Jack Wisner as a #4 and Tyler Hallman has been consistently improving so far this season. If he’s a “weak link” it’s only relative to the unbelievable set of front runners the team has. Really, the key will be to not get comfortable. They will need to stay hungry, stay healthy and keep striving for more. Also worth noting, the state course is narrow early for a long time and Carlisle likes to go out conservatively. Will that play a role at all in the Hershey final?

That’s why you can’t stop chasing.