Cross country is such a hard sport to analyze. As I mentioned in one of my posts earlier this summer, there are tons of factors that can play a role in how we view cross country performances. Temperature, altitude, hills, terrain, and so much more all play a role which makes comparing individuals and teams that much harder (and more fun).
At the end of the day, we analyze and enjoy the sport because we are looking to see who has the best shot at winning a national championship. Speculation is helpful to an extent. But numbers? Well as the saying goes, "the numbers don't lie". Let's look at some past history and see what we can determine about our 2016 NCAA team champion.
Below is a list of every NCAA team champion and how many team titles they have won. The list covers the past 77 years of recorded competition. 1943 (for some reason) was omitted.
| # | University/College | No. of National Team Titles Won | % of National Team Titles Won |
| 1 | Arkansas | 11 | 14.29% |
| 2 | UTEP | 8 | 10.39% |
| 2 | Michigan State | 8 | 10.39% |
| 4 | Oregon | 6 | 7.79% |
| 5 | Colorado | 5 | 6.49% |
| 5 | Wisconsin | 5 | 6.49% |
| 7 | Villanova | 4 | 5.19% |
| 7 | Oklahoma State | 4 | 5.19% |
| 7 | Stanford | 4 | 5.19% |
| 10 | Drake | 3 | 3.90% |
| 10 | Indiana | 3 | 3.90% |
| 12 | Syracuse | 2 | 2.60% |
| 12 | Penn State | 2 | 2.60% |
| 12 | Iowa State | 2 | 2.60% |
| 12 | Western Michigan | 2 | 2.60% |
| 12 | San Jose State | 2 | 2.60% |
| 17 | Notre Dame | 1 | 1.30% |
| 17 | Kansas | 1 | 1.30% |
| 17 | Rhode Island | 1 | 1.30% |
| 17 | Tennessee | 1 | 1.30% |
| 17 | Oregon State | 1 | 1.30% |
| 17 | Houston | 1 | 1.30% |
| TOTAL: | 77 |
Right off the bat, we can see that Arkansas is the All-Time leader in team titles with 11. UTEP and Michigan State have a total of 8. Traditional cross country powerhouse programs like Colorado, Wisconsin, Oregon, Oklahoma State, and Stanford are all among the top 10 in the team title count.
If you count the total number of teams, you'll realize that in the 77 year history of NCAA championship running, only 22 teams have won team titles. That is a lower number of teams than there are programs that annually qualify for nationals (31).
Based off the numbers, it seems pretty clear that the team title winners are very concentrated within very few programs. In fact, the top 6 teams hold over half of the team titles (55%). But at the other end, we see that there are only 6 teams in the past 77 years that have only 1 team title. This means that, on average, once every 12 to 13 years there will be a new team champion who has never been crowned before.
If the last program to win their first ever team title was Colorado in 2001, then we are 2 years overdue for another new team title in 2016. Could Georgetown, Iona, or NAU finally get that team win? History says they could...
Of course, past success is not indicative of future performance which is pretty obvious when you consider the last time some of these teams won a national championship. Arkansas hasn't won since 2000, UTEP hasn't won since 1981, and Michigan State hasn't won since 1959. If we look back at just the past 20 years, here is what we see...
| # | University/College | No. of National Team Titles Won Past 20 Years | % of National Team Titles Won Past 20 Years |
| 1 | Colorado | 5 | 25.00% |
| 2 | Stanford | 4 | 20.00% |
| 3 | Arkansas | 3 | 15.00% |
| 3 | Oklahoma State | 3 | 15.00% |
| 5 | Wisconsin | 2 | 10.00% |
| 5 | Oregon | 2 | 10.00% |
| 7 | Syracuse | 1 | 5.00% |
| TOTAL: | 20 |
Only 7 teams have won the team title during the past 20 years. Colorado and Stanford are the only programs who have won all of their team titles in the past 20 years making them the most relevant in today's conversation of powerhouse programs. Arkansas has still earned a trio of titles during the late 90's/early 2000's, but don't currently hold the national dominance they once had (despite consistently being a top 10 team every year).
With the way things are looking now, it seems like Syracuse is the favorite to win another team championship in 2016. Syracuse defending their title would continue to prove just how condensed and concentrated the talent is in the NCAA.
Of course, there are factors that play a role into why teams are so dominant at certain times. The reason for that can largely be explained by coaching...
| # | Coaches of Team Title Champions Past 20 Years | Team | Year Position for XC Started | Final Year in Position | National Team Championships Since 1996 | Years Since Position Started to Win Team Title |
| 1 | Mark Wetmore | Colorado | 1995 | N/A | 5 | 6 years |
| 2 | Dave Smith | Oklahoma State | 2006 | N/A | 3 | 3 years |
| 3 | John McDonnell | Arkansas | 1972 | 2008 | 3 | 13 years |
| 4 | Vin Lananna | Stanford | 1992 | 2002 | 3 | 5 years |
| 5 | Andy Powell | Oregon | 2005 | N/A | 2 | 2 years |
| 6 | Chris Fox | Syracuse | 2005 | N/A | 1 | 10 years |
| 7 | Mick Byrne | Wisconsin | 2008 | N/A | 1 | 4 years |
| 8 | Jerry Schumacher | Wisconsin | 1998 | 2007 | 1 | 8 years |
| 9 | Andrew Gerard | Stanford | 2003 | 2004 | 1 | 1st year |
| 10 | Chris Miltenberg | Stanford | 2011 | N/A | 0 | N/A |
| 11 | Chris Bucknam | Arkansas | 2009 | N/A | 0 | N/A |
Only 9 coaches within the past 20 years have earned a team title. Coach Miltenberg (Stanford) and Coach Bucknam (Arkansas) are the only current coaches of a powerhouse team that haven't earned one. They are, of course, the newest of the bunch.
But the numbers above just go to show just how much change a coach can make (and just how good these coaches truly are). Oklahoma State had one team title to boast way back in 1954. 3 years after Dave Smith joins, OKST is one of the best programs in the nation. The same goes for Mark Wetmore who turned the Buffalo's into one of the best programs ever after he entered the program in '95. All of these coaches (with the exception of John McDonnell) all earned at least one team title within 10 years of starting out as head coach which seems to explain their recent success. Only Stanford and Wisconsin have two coaches to earn team titles in the past 20 years. Those coaches are Jerry Shumacher and Vin Lananna. Both are considered as one of the best coaches in the nation (in their respective time).
So what have we taken away from all of this? We now understand just how concentrated national championships among teams. Only 22 teams have ever won a national team title. Now-a-days, teams racing at nationals can safely predict that Syracuse, Colorado, Stanford, Wisconsin, Arkansas, or Oregon will come out with the crown.
If a team running at nationals has never won a title before, then they essentially have to wait an average of 12 to 13 years to have a legitimate shot. If that doesn't work out, then follow the trend of powerhouse programs and get a new coach. If he (or she) is going to make the team a powerhouse program, then it will take him/her roughly 5 to 6 years to earn that first national title.
But at the end of the day, numbers are just numbers. They may tell the story, but they certainly don't write it.
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