The A title race is sure to be one of the most exciting team battles of the 6 races. Already teams with state title hopes like Avonworth, Sacred Heart and defending champions Saegertown have been stunned at Districts and left without a state starting box. That means this race is deep and on any given day a number of teams could run their way into the history books. Here are my predictions for the top 10 A teams.
10. Greensburg Central Catholic (7)
They have a solid front runner in Mirigliano and a decent pack behind him with some strong Senior leadership as well. This team came out of left field for me last week at Districts so it’s hard for me to get a strong read on them. However, I saw them mix it up with a pair of teams that have a realistic shot at winning a state title (and they beat two more that would have been in that same conversation) so they deserve the respect of being a top 10 team. If anything, they are under ranked here at spot 10.
9. Camp Hill (3)
The Camp Hill boys very quietly threw down a dominating performance at districts. Beheny and Leslie dominated that field and ran close to 17 flat. Considering the weather, even on a sans Poop-Out course, those time suggest medalist potential at states. They have 5 solid guys and averaged about 18 flat on the course, which puts them right in the thick of things with the top teams. Last year they struggled to bounce back from districts and Beheny got hurt, which buried their chances of finishing top 10. This year, with an extra year’s experience, the team looks poised to crack the top 10 (and they have bigger goals than that). The downside here is the fact that this is a district 3 team battling back to back weeks at Hershey. They are still relatively young (they return their entire scoring 5 for next year), although that’s not a big concern because they have strong Hershey experience. But I think those top two might have ran a little too hard at districts (they dominated the race and who knows how necessary that was) so I cautiously slot them at 9.
8. Mercyhurst Prep (10)
Mercyhurst was 5th last year at states and have arguably a better team this time around. Sebastian Curtin is likely going to finish in the top 2 or 3 team scorers and his little brother Noah Curtin has quietly become a medal threat. Their top 2 is lethal and they have a solid pack behind them that can potential surprise at states. I went back and forth on just how high to place these guys, but ultimately decided I like some other team’s depth a bit better than I liked MP’s front running. They end up here at the 8 spot.
7. Masterman (12)
Masterman is a real wildcard for me this year. They have the front runner (stud Julian Degroot-Lutzner) and they have a strong #2 in Joe Previdi. They absolutely dominated the District 12 meet, scoring in the teens for points; however, that field was not near the quality we will see this weekend at states. That’s why it’s tricky to get a read on just how good these guys are. They have pieces to produce a solid states run and they have handled this course well in recent years. They were a hard fought second to Saegertown last year, and they were third at the Pre States meet in 2014 after winning in 2013. Ultimately, I feel like this team has improved enough since that Pre State race to warrant a spot in the top 7.
6. Penns Valley (6)
Like I’ve said before, I’m a sucker for impressive pack running. Penns Valley showcased their stuff by putting 5 guys in a row at their district championship (and all 5 guys were ahead of the second best team’s #1, Jacob Schulte of Bishop McCourt). However, those 5 guys weren’t up at the front of the race, dominating a district 6 race that was missing the previous year’s champ (Central Cambria): they had no individuals crack the top 9. However, I still am very excited about this squad’s potential. Chris Colwell, a freshman, had been their #1 man the meet before districts, yet he was #4 at districts. Mothersbaugh has had some impressive performances on the Hershey course and he was their #5 at districts. Griffiths, their #6 at districts, is capable of filling in for any down performances from a member of their top 5. They need a break out run from Fuller, Colwell or Mothersbaugh to pull the pack along, but if they get it, this team will surprise a lot of people.
5. Winchester Thurston (7)
This the first of 5 teams that I feel have very realistic shots at winning a state title. I wouldn’t be surprised if Loevner or Delaney ended up in the top 10 at states. Their 1-2 punch is the best in the state. But it’s possible that neither of those guys could end up as the team’s #1. Ben Littman has had a phenomenal season and continued to impress with his top 10 finish at Districts. He gives WT their 3rd potential medalist. All three of those guys had valuable learning experiences last year at states. At #4, they will need another big day from freshman Tristan Forsythe who gave WT another top 12 guy at districts and cemented their trip to the state championships. On a great day, WT could end up with 4 guys in the top 35 finishers. You would be hard pressed to find a team that pulled that off and didn’t win a state championship, especially in A and AA. However, there is a fairly large drop off to #5 and he is just a freshman. That means their two most important pieces are freshman that have never run this course before. That scares me enough to drop them here to 5, but if the youngsters have a big day this team will be on the podium.
4. Elk Lake (2)
Elk Lake is basically Penns Valley 2.0. They have a great pack of guys with depth and no weak links. Elk Lake is a historically great program that competed for and won state championships even when they were a small school in AA. The team was a little too young and inexperienced to make a title push last season, but this squad has grown since that defeat. Like Penns Valley, they will need someone to emerge to drag their pack up the rankings; however, they have proven they can successfully accomplish this (2nd at Pre States this year without emerging freshman superstar Cody Oswald). I like Dan Bell and Hunter Bedell as sleeper medal picks and Cody Oswald is a real wildcard who their top man at districts as just a frosh. They have the depth to win a state title, they just need to secure the power up front.
3. Seneca (10)
Seneca, like basically all the top teams this year, is a fairly young squad as well, but they had an excellent learning experience when they qualified for states last year and finished 6th. Their best runners, the Meyers twins, were in excellent position at 2 miles, but faded over the last stretch. Now they are a year older and as sophomores instead of freshman I expect them to improve substantially. Phoenix Meyers has been impressive all season and Donovan took a big step when he ran to a second place finish at districts. Their top 4 were very solid at districts (all taking top 20 in a loaded D10 A field) and their 5 (freshman Nick Post) was behind a bit, but he got the job done and got Seneca a district title. The district 10 champs last year (Saegertown) went on to become state champs and had a sneaky good performance at states (in merged results they would have beat all the AA schools). I think this team has shown signs they can be a title team as well, however, 3 sophomores and a freshman in their top 5 guys is scary. If they can win a state title with this crew, we may be seeing a dynasty emerging in Seneca. Look out.
2. Sewickley Academy (7)
This was a tough call to drop Sewickley to second and the silver medals. They have been the best team in District 7 A all year with some dominating performances and an impressive district championship run. They have nice depth and a very potent top 5. On the right day their top 4 can hang close with Winchester’s which is saying something. Griffin Mackey will be in the title hunt this year and will look to give this team a low stick out front. Hansen, O’Neill, Hanlon and Clouse are the likely remaining members of the top 5 but Magee at 6 is nice insurance in a close race. Clouse and Hansen have each shown signs they can compete for medals at states. This team has a great combination of front running and depth. I expect things to be incredibly tight at the end of this race so the deciding factors could be very small details. My main concern with Sewickley is not necessarily their youth (they have plenty of Senior leadership), but their lack of state experience. They didn’t qualify for states as a team last season and they didn’t travel to Hershey for Pre States. I’d be curious to see the last time a team won a state championship after not qualifying for states as a team the previous year, it might be more common than I think. Regardless, that’s the history Sewickley will be fighting.
1. Northeast Bradford (4)
These guys won the title in 2012 and were third a year ago, meaning they are probably the greatest team in A history (which is admittedly just 2 years). They had Sam Williams and Curt Jewett in the top 10 medalists in 2012 and they had another pair of medalists in Devonshire and Garrett Smith last year. Smith is back to help lead this team with Levi Upham who was a key contributor on last year’s team and the state title team in 2012. This team put 4 in the top 10 at districts and has 2 guys that I expect to be in the medals at states. They also have 3 guys capable of contributing as a scorer in the 5-6-7 spots. This team is well coached and has experience and motivation after the heart break of missing out on medals last year. Upham knows what it takes to be a state champion and his leadership could be the x-factor in an exciting, down to the wire, state title competition.
With a bunch of great, young teams leading the charge, this could be a historically exciting state championship. And next year could be just as fun.
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