District 12 Predictions

AAA
O’Hara has made a name for itself in recent years. They have put up top 3 finishes every year since 2010 and totaled at least one state medalist in each of those years. They came two coin flips away from being back to back state champs and they have the second best national finish ever, finishing 5th in 2012. But still they are missing that all important state championship. This year both Kevin James and his O’Hara teammates will look to change that.
 
At Districts, it will be about taking care of business and organizing the pack for states. Their top 3 have proven they are extremely dangerous as Kev James, Ryan James and Rob Morro are all potential medalists in Hershey, however, Pastore and Donovan (and maybe Pat James) will have to continue to improve to keep pace with North Allegheny. Donovan had a nice race at PCLs which is very encouraging. If he and Pastore can come close to cracking the top 50 in Hershey, they will be in excellent shape to win a state title.
 
For the record, I think the O’Hara pink unis are in my top 5 favorite uniforms I’ve seen, maybe even my favorites. I’m assuming those won’t last until states (October is Breast Cancer Awareness Month), but if they wear those jerseys on the starting line I am warning you know I will be completely biasedly rooting for them.
 
(For those who care, other favorites of mine include the classic Henderson maroon, the Tunkhannock tiger uniform, the Upper Dublin red and black because it was my team uni probably, North Penn’s classic jerseys, the Coatesville all black, and the list goes on)
 
Look up the definition of wild card in the dictionary and you will likely see a picture of the 2014 LaSalle Cross Country team. I have seen massive potential in these guys since their early season PCL meets: their depth is amazing. But only 5 guys score and some of those 5 guys have to be low sticks if you are going to do damage at the important meets of the season. LaSalle has their work cut out for them this weekend. They are basically running another dual meet against O’Hara and if someone takes 1-2-3 in a dual meet it’s over right then and there. Patrick Grant has now had back to back runs as their #1 and Sean Princivalle is a beast on the hills this season. Ryan Mitchell and Eddie Goebel have each been the team’s top guy at some point during the season as well. Price and Paul round out a very capable top 7, giving this team excellent insurance in case of a bad day and an extra boost in a 6th man tie breaker.
 
These guys could go either way at States. They could end up like the 2008 LaSalle team which had their top guy at just 25th overall, but rode a tight pack to a stunning upset of North Allegheny to grab 2nd at states. They could end up like the 2009 LaSalle team that had a roughly 15 second spread and 5 guys in the top 50, but couldn’t get anyone on the medal stand and they ended up being upset by North Allegheny. This District meet should give us a peak into their potential, especially if they can squeeze some guys in between KJ and James/Morro.
 
The real drama of the team race will probably come for third. St. Joe’s Prep is the third best team in the district and they hold an outside chance at “pulling a LaSalle” this week, i.e. qualifying for states using 5 individual qualifiers. Unlike LaSalle in 2012, SJP has to get 5 or more guys into the 10 non O’Hara and LaSalle spots which, in my opinion, is much more doable. But it’s still no cake walk. Piscano and Fisher are both top 10 guys in this field on the right day and should be the first two individual qualifiers to states barring an upset. I think Piscano has a big day this weekend and bounces back well from PCLs. Dempsey had a strong sub 18 run at PCLs as well and he is a name in the mix for one of the individual spots. I did not see Richard Murphy in the results at Leagues, but if he is healthy he has been a solid 3 for these guys all year and could definitely sneak into the top 24. That would give SJP 4 guys. Then it would be up to their 5 to find a way past a group that likely includes Kosher from Franlkin, Flinn from Wood, and Lawson from Ryan. It’s very possible on the right day that someone like Kane can pull that off for Prep. As of now, I have them just one spot short of the mark, but on the right day those tables can turn.
 
1       K. James        O'Hara
2       R. James        O'Hara
3       Morro           O'Hara
4       Grant            LaSalle
6       Princivalle     LaSalle
8       Goebel          LaSalle
9       Mitchell        LaSalle
10      Hendry          Frankford
11      Pastore O'Hara
12      Driscoll                LaSalle
13      Ortiz           Wood
14      Donovan O'Hara
15      Paul            LaSalle (6)
16      Kosher          Franklin
17      Flinn           Wood
18      Brown           Roman Catholic
19      Price           LaSalle (7)
20      P. James        O'Hara (6)
21      Taraborelli/Nolen       O'Hara (7)
23      Lawson          Ryan
 
1       O'Hara  31
2       LaSalle 39
3       St. Joe's Prep  83
 
AA
With the movement of Archbishop Wood and Franklin, Bonner has to be feeling good about its chances of reclaiming the district title. Bonner has a fantastic 1-2 punch in Rasatter and Sullivan, both of whom will be in the hunt for individual gold. After that tandem, Bonner has the most depth of the district and will likely be able to win with under 30 points. Cromity, Whitfield and Lulther are among the names expected to compete for top 10 spots for Bonner.
 
The second team spot looks like it will go Archbishop Carroll. They have their own 1-2 punch in Zwairoski and Fohner and the youngster Clay should chip in nicely at 3. They don’t quite have the depth to get an edge on Bonner, but their front running should allow them to beat out teams like Lansdale Catholic and Simon Gratz.
 
Beyond the PCL guys mentioned above, be on the look out for Jihad and Francis of Neumann Goretti as well as Jefferson from Swenson.
 
1       Rasatter        Bonner
2       Sullivan                Bonner
3       Zwairoski       Archbishop Carroll
4       Fohner          Archbishop Carroll
5       Jihad           Neumann Goretti
6       Cromity Bonner
7       Whitfield       Bonner
8       Gataleda        Lansdale Catholic
9       Jefferson       Swenson
10      Clay            Archbishop Carroll
11      Francis         Neumann Goretti
12      Lulther         Bonner
13      Collins         Swenson
14      Minor           Engineering and Science
15      Johnston        Gratz
16      Burnett Gratz
17      Foley           Bonner (6)
18      Kraynak Lansdale Catholic
19      Drabinski       Bonner (7)
20      Brunson Bishop McDevitt
21      Madden  Lansdale Catholic
22      Curtis          Gratz
 
1       Bonner                  28
2       Archbishop Carroll      77
3       Gratz
 
A
Masterman looks poised to dominate this meet once again. Julian Degroot-Lutzner is the heavy favorite and will try and continue his dominance out front. Behind him teammate Joe Previdi will look to make it a 1-2 finish. Masterman should fill the majority of the top 10 spots with Loufman, Parks, Sims and Thomas all looking to be involved. Hopefully they can build positive momentum towards states where they will try to improve on their runner up finish last year.
 
The battle for the second team spot is a complete toss up. Conwell-Egan, Science and Paul Robeson all have some nice pieces, but no one is pulling away because each team has question marks at the 5 spot. Conwell-Egan may have the best front runner in Kelly and they were the #2 team in last year so that confidence and experience could help. Science has their own front running threat in O’Donovan and may have the best 5, which could really swing the competition. Robeson has a really strong top 4 with Mills and Clement set to lead the charge out front and Nelson and Fletcher running solid at 3-4. If they can sure up the 5 spot, then they will be team #2 to states.
 
There is a chance one of these teams could “Pull a LaSalle” and get 5 guys in the top 10 individual qualifying spots, especially if Robeson ends up pulling out the 2nd team spot. In theory there is a situation where all 4 teams can make it to states, but it would require a top 20 or so that was entirely Masterman, Robeson, Science and Conwell-Egan. It’s not impossible, but odds are someone would sneak in, especially Dunbar from Roxborough. Regardless the team battle should be very exciting.
 
Individually, JDL should take home the double gold and he may have company from Previdi if he continues to improve. However, the interesting individual battle will revolve around Kelly, O’Donovan and Mills who are all trying to get to the state championships as both individuals and teams and every point will count.
 
1       Masterman       24
2       Conwell-Egan    72
3       Science         75
4       Paul Robeson    78
 
1       Degroot-Lutzner Masterman
2       Kelly                   Conwell-Egan
3       Previdi                 Masterman
4       O'Donovan               Science
5       Loufman         Masterman
6       Mills                   Paul Robeson
7       Parks                   Masterman
8       Sims                    Masterman
9       Clement         Paul Robeson
10      Thomas          Masterman (6)
11      Mauer                   Masterman (7)
12      Jeffcoat                Science
13      Chekay                  Conwell-Egan
14      Kim                     Conwell-Egan
15      Dunbar                  Roxborough
16      Nelson                  Paul Robeson
17      Fletcher                Paul Robeson
18      Courtney                Science
19      Bucko                   Roxborough
20      Harris                  Science
21      Richardson              Conwell-Egan
22      Perezza         Science

5 comments:

  1. In the AAA race, Tim Kosher is not from Franklin,but instead from Franklin Towne Charter. He has qualified both times out of AA as an individual but is not a certainty this Thursday..he'll figure to be one of the last 5-6 guys fighting for 2 spots.

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    1. I tried to save myself some typing and abbreviate the school as just Franklin, but overlooked the fact that would be quite confusing, thanks for clarifying!

      It will be interesting to see what FTC and Wood can do now that they are in AAA

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    2. FTC has a new coach this year and things are slightly in flux for them. The old coach has moved on due to issues with the administration. The new coach has done a decent job but has struggled to get the same numbers out as Coach New did (he was the most popular teacher in that school).

      One note now since by the beginning of next week, D12 will be getting loads of crap from outside. Many charter schools claim to have a team and in fact submit their money to the PIAA as though they will. When push comes to shove, they oftentimes never field one. Since they told the PIAA that they would, those schools are included in the count that determines the number of qualifiers for the District. It is not the fault of the kids that run and will qualify out of the District (some who will be much slower than would occur in D1, 3, 7, or elsewhere). I just want to put it out there as to why this happens since there will be some who talk bad about those kids or even the District as a whole as if it is D12's or the Philadelphia Public League's fault these schools pay for a team then don't field one. I'm trying to put this out there much like the reader explained the situation out in D8, so as to foster some understanding.

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    3. Thank you or sharing this! I didn't find it odd that, especially for A, they were sending two teams instead of one. Always nice to have clarification on this point. Do you know if there is a time standard like they mentioned there was for D8 individuals?

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    4. No time standard, but teams/coaches are encouraged to be realistic if they have a qualifier who may not just be last but get embarrassed up at Hershey to perhaps not run them. This tends to be a much smaller problem with the Catholic League teams than the Public League teams.

      As for the oddity of 2 teams in A, it comes down to 18 teams being a part of the District. That said, I can tell you the following teams never once showed up to a meet this season: Eastern U. Academy, First Phila. Prep, KiPP Dubois, Phila. Mennonite, Wold Comm. Charter. In AA, you have only 1 school that I can see that never showed up: New Foundations. That said, many schools will not be able to field a full team. As someone mentioned over on the D8 comments, people from outside the city can have no idea how hard it is to get kids out running longer than 100m, let alone a 5k, and have them train for it in the "concrete jungle". Oftentimes you'll get partial teams so you may find 7-10 teams finishing but there will be a bunch of individuals from other schools in the race. This is true in all the classes.

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