District 3 Predictions

AAA

 

Ah, District 3. This is going to be the wackiest of the District meets for all the AAA schools. I’m about 96% sure of that (small chance that it’s D2 and I suppose a chance it’s D1. But D1 always steals the spotlight so enough about them!). Here’s the honest truth. I’ve tried really hard to figure out which four teams are going to states and I feel like I’ve probably only confused myself more. Here is what I have decided.

 

Cumberland Valley will be going back to states. Not only have they proven that they are the best team from the District the past two weeks, but they are a consistently strong program that always gets their guys to the state meet. They are a complete team with five very strong guys, led by two runners who have broken 16 minutes before. I don’t see a way these guys slip through the cracks and end up on the outside looking in. Now that being said, I’m not guaranteeing they will win a district title. Cumberland Valley is focused on peaking at states and not districts so they may hold back a little bit. They have a bit of a drop off between their 5 and 6-7 so if a guy or two struggles (like at Carlisle) they could be vulnerable. Plus they have no guaranteed top 10 guy who will be money as a low stick. But all of that is pretty much knit picking at this stage in the game. They are my de facto pick to win the District title.

 

After Cumby, I think Hershey is the next best team. Demko has been an animal in recent weeks after his 15:40 at Paul Short. The kid has been good for a while, but he’s taken the step into the elite category. He and Sponaugle are a great 1-2 punch to lead the charge. Peter D’Amico has quietly been climbing the District 3 power rankings as this squad’s number three. His steady improvement could mean he is on the verge of a breakout race. Then Hershey offers a diverse pack at 4-7. They had 6 guys in the top 40 at Mid Penns including Sophomore Grant Geyer (34th), Trevor Ruddle (37th) and Adam Rabbon (38th).  Throw in Michael Corado (16:40s at Paul Short), at this team has 7 very capable guys. That’s incredibly important at a course like Hershey where bad days are bound to happen. My favorite thing about this squad, 6 of their projected top 7 guys are Seniors. That may be just the motivation the team needs to climb the mountain and get to states. For them, this is their last chance.

 

But after those two squads I’m stuck. I think there are 8 teams in the district that are deserving of a spot to states. It’s just that loaded. The 6 teams I grappled with other than the two squads above were Carlisle, Hempfield, Lower Dauphin, McCaskey, Red Land and Twin Valley. It was brutal. I first decided to drop McCaskey out of the state spot hopefuls. I really like their top 3 (sophomore Nathan Henderson is a name on the rise) and they have a solid 4 in Perez, but I feel their 5 may end up buried in this kind of field. Admittedly, they handled that just fine at the Carlisle Invite (they beat Cumberland Valley, Carlisle, and Hempfield that day) but it still makes me nervous. I slotted McCaskey painfully at the 8 spot.

 

Keep in mind that I made projections for this District meet and the next 5 teams I’m about to talk about finish within 12 points of one another. All 5! So at that point the numbers didn’t help me much, I had to just go with my gut and intuition. I dropped Hempfield out next. Here’s the thing, Hempfield didn’t impress much at Carlisle or Paul Short, but they were missing key pieces at both meets. Duncan Brady (16:12 at PS and second at Lebo Lancaster) was missing at Carlisle and Nick Norton (10th at Lebo Lancaster) was missing from Paul Short. When they had a full squad (with the possible exception of Harrison Kline) they looked fantastic. I really like their potential and they have a serious X-factor in Christian Groff who I think will have a big day at Districts. Ultimately, I just think they fall a little short of these other squads. Painfully slotted them at 7.

 

Now it was down to 4. I gave Twin Valley one of the two remaining state spots. I really like their pack running and depth. They have 5 really strong guys and Josh Faber, their #6 on paper has filled in quite well when one of their top 5 has had an off day. I expect a big bounce back from Coakley and I think Digiacomo will run the states course well as he did a year ago. These boys made it to states last year and return that whole squad. Their projected top 5 is all Seniors which is always encouraging at this stage.

 

The final three squads all had one thing in common, they have a killer top 3 but I’m nervous about their 4-5 (for the record if Hempfield gets through to states, it will be because their pack beats out these front loaded squads, which is quite possible). I think Red Land has the best top 3 of the bunch. Seiger was my pick to win districts even before Mid Penns and that only boosted my confidence in him. I think Red Land had a bit of an off day at Mid Penns and looked much better at the other invites. I expect a bounce back performance from them and they are the squad I think will make it to the state championships, just barely edging out Lower Dauphin and Carlisle (who were the best two teams in the District a year ago, and could easily run their way into states).

 

Overall it was a brutal process but that’s the conclusion I came to. The points are the projected points from my “mock meet”, but as mentioned above with the scores so close I took my gut instincts into consideration.

 

1       Cumberland Valley       106

2       Hershey         147

3       Twin Valley             177

4       Red Land                189

5       Lower Dauphin           182

6       Carlisle                        180

7       Hempfield               185

8       McCaskey                247

9       Governor Mifflin        293

10      Wilson                  273

11      Chambersburg            298

 

Oh yeah, there is going to be an individual race too! I’ve been picking Seiger to win this one for a couple weeks and nothing in his recent performances has given me reason to doubt him. He runs the hills well and I think he knows every point counts for Red Land if they want to grab one of the team spots to states. I see both Seiger and Wilkinson having big days to set the stage for guys behind them.

 

What I find interesting is most of the top individuals in the race are also on bubble teams for states, meaning there is not going to be a lot of room to hold back. I’m sure someone like Brehm would like to run a relaxed race this week to give himself a shot at the title the next time out, but I’m not sure he can afford to if Carlisle wants to advance. Same goes for Seiger, Demko, Weidner, Henderson and maybe even someone like Jacob Connors from Wilson. I don’t see Wilson as a state qualifying threat, but they are a strong team and if I was their coach I’d be putting the idea in their heads.

 

With this in mind, I think it’s like that Gebhardt and possibly Delaney take relaxed runs on race day and get a qualifying spot without going for the win. But they may also feel chasing a district championship is more important, especially for a Senior like Gebhardt. I actually am big on the Delaney bandwagon for this week; I think he could be a sleeper pick for an upset win. A couple young guns to watch would be Henderson, the sophomore from McCaksey and Cupp the freshman from Mechanicsburg. LD also has a pair of sophs in Casell and Shea who could do damage. The true wildcard is sophomore Yahya Soliman from Cumberland Valley who I think has the potential for a top 10 day, but has been a little too inconsistent for me to place him that high.

 

1       Seiger          Red Land

2       Brehm           Carlisle

3       Gebhardt        New Oxford

4       Delaney Manheim Township

5       Demko           Hershey

6       Weidner Lower Dauphin

7       Henderson       McCaskey

8       Wilkinson       Red Land

9       Connors Wilson

10      Sponaugle       Hershey

11      Wasko           Cumberland Valley

12      Wilson          Central Dauphin

13      Brady           Hempfield

14      DeAngelo        Carlisle

15      Soliman Cumberland Valley

16      Seeber          Cumberland Valley

17      Hopkins McCaskey

18      Cassell         Lower Dauphin

19      Mills           Governor Mifflin

20      Shea            Lower Dauphin

21      Higgins         Cumberland Valley

22      Wisner          Carlisle

23      Cupp            Mechanicsubrg

24      Coakley Twin Valley

25      Mills           Red Land

26      Guiterez        McCaskey

27      Tomasko Mechanicsubrg

28      Yurchak Hempfield

29      Coleman Chambersburg

30      Schott          South Western

31      Kearns          Northern

32      D'Amico Hershey

33      Geary           Twin Valley

34      Kiousis         Kennard Dale

35      Burkholder      Penn Manor

36      Geary           Twin Valley

37      Wurtz           Chambersburg

38      Gatchell        Red Lion

39      Digicomo        Twin Valley

40      Mahon           Wilson

 

AA

 

This will be an important year for the “Is Running Hershey Back to Back Weeks a Disadvantage?” argument. AAA is very deep and has a slew of talented teams and individuals that will be attempting to make a very difficult bounce back. But AA has always had an easier time with the transition than AAA has, producing a slew of individual state champs in recent years (Beveridge twice, Gruschow, Welsh, Todaro). Last year’s district champ, Dan Green had a somewhat disappointing state meet after winning the district title. This year, if he wants to defend his title, he likely won’t be able to coast. Brady Wilt and Donovan Mears have looked extremely strong for York Suburban and Wilt is the defending A district champ. In addition, there is the dangerous duo of Kyle Shinn and Jack DiContino of Wyomissing lurking and ready to strike. Shinn was in the top 5 at states a year ago and DiContino is coming off an impressive upset win in the Berks League. I had dropped DiContino as low as 12th on this list after a series of somewhat underwhelming races, but he made a big statement this past weekend and now finds himself a serious district title contender.

I think Dan Green is going to win this race yet again and make a serious statement over Wilt, Mears and the Wyomissing duo. That being said, this weekend isn’t the real test for Green. I think it’s fair to say he’s got the best shot of knocking off Hockenbury for the title in AA and, honestly, I think you can make an argument that he has been better this year overall. But winning both meets is tricky so there is always going to be some doubt. If he cruises this first go round at Hershey, he might be my pick to win states. Some sleepers include Dan Filler from Gettysburg and Sam Signor from East Pennsboro.

 

Quick shout out to Donegal High! We have some serious family ties there (my Uncle John is the principal) so I’ll be rooting for the duo of Burkholder and Miller, a couple guys I see as bubble guys for individual qualifying spots.

 

In the team race, York Suburban will look to continue their impressive season. At their league meet, they continued to look impressive. They have real depth for a AA team and two excellent front runners leading the way. I’ll be interested to see how their freshman Oleh handles the big stage. He ran quite well at Pre States, so he shouldn’t be phased by this district course. York Suburban has the potential to get 5 guys in the top 20 if this break right. But again, the question for YS will not be if they can win districts, but if they can pull of the double victory on back to back weeks at Hershey.

 

Behind YS, Manheim Central and Palmyra should take the final two state spots. I heard that Manheim Central may be AAA this year which may completely throw off my predictions, but I slotted them in AA like last year. They were the winners of the Champions race at Carlisle and are one of the more underrated teams in AA. Palymra has been steadily improving and arguably has a better pack than MC, which should make this thing close.  Palymra has nice rotation at the front with Cole and Daniel both developing as nice leaders. Manheim has been led by Sunderland and Lachman this year, but Sunderland did not race at their league meet which could be a cause for concern. They will need both of their big guns to set the tone for their teammates. Merkey, Fitzkee and Dise will have to run solid to get the team 2nd.

 

A few teams have an outside chance at breaking up this top three party including Wyomissing (strong top 2 with a quickly developing 3 in Cullen), Conrad Weiser and Anville Cleona.

 

Here’s what I predict will play out:

 

1       York Suburban                   43

2       Manheim Central*                109

3       Palmyra                 114

4       Wyomissing

5       Conrad Weiser

 

1       Green           James Buchanon

2       Wilt            York Suburban

3       Shinn           Wyomissing

4       Mears           York Suburban

5       DiContino       Wyomissing

6       Signor          East Pennsboro

7       Filler          Gettysburg

8       Oleh            York Suburban

9       Sunderland      Manheim Central

10      Wagner  York Suburban

11      Lachman Manheim Central

12      Daniel          Palmyra

13      Drawbaugh       Trinity

14      Cole            Palmyra

15      Stabolepszy     Schuylkill Valley

16      Inman           Anville Cleona

17      McGranaghan     Berks Catholic

18      Merkey  Manheim Central

19      Lofties         York Suburban

20      Ramsay  Conrad Wesier

21      White           Eastern York

22      Bitner          Boiling Springs

23      Barkley         York Suburban (6)

24      Perry           Palmyra

25      Robinson        Palmyra

26      Maloney Oley Valley

27      Geisler         Trinity

28      Burkholder      Donegal

29      Stutzman        Lancaster Mennonite

30      McKenzie        Northeastern

 

A

 

I won’t pretend I have a strong grasp on the many of the A districts, but I do know that Camp Hill has been the team to beat out of District 3. It’s a relatively small race and I think Camp Hill has the best two runners in the field in Beheny and Leslie, with Beheny my current pick to grab the district title after his impressive Mid Penns run. Camp Hill is also the defending champs as a team, narrowly defeating Veritas last year. What appeared would be their primary competition this season, Biglersville, took a big hit when they lost Brady Wilt and now lacks the front running power they need to compete with Camp Hill. Delone Catholic is one of the few teams who could pull the upset, let by Greene and Mall who will be in the individual hunt for states as well.

 

1       Camp Hill               42

2       Delone Catholic

 

1       Beheny          Camp Hill

2       Leslie                  Camp Hill

3       Greene          Delone Catholic

4       Bender                  Veritas Academy

5       Morrison                West Shore Catholic

6       Baringer                Harrisburg Christian

7       Mall                    Delone Catholic

8       Gabig                   Camp HIll

9       Sneller                 Dayspring Christian

10      Hagarman                Delone Catholic