District One Predictions

For the record I came about 30 seconds away from completely switching around my team predictions, but in the end I tried to stay strong. Here ya go.

 

AAA

District One, Pennsylvania has dominated the PA running landscape. They have produced the state champion for almost every year this millennium while producing national level talent for both Footlocker and NXN. But this year, D1 seems to be in flux. There is not a dominating North Penn or Henderson team at the front. There are 6 teams that will line up on Friday thinking, “If we have our day, we will win”. That always makes for an amazing meet.

 

Here are the 6 teams that should think they can win the meet this Friday: CB West, Conestoga, CRN, DTWest, Henderson and Pennsbury. Forrest did a nice job breaking down some of the key questions surrounding each of these teams in a recent post, but I’ll throw my two cents in as well. EDIT: And Chris has a nice preview up as well. Wrote this before he did his originally so made this edit.

 

We start with the defending state champion in the West Chester Henderson Warriors. Henderson has won districts every year since 2009, a streak that rivals the dominance of North Allegheny in the WPIAL. That streak is obviously on the line this Friday. The focus for most Henderson haters has been on the 5th man spot, where the team has been weaker than much of its competition in recent weeks. Obviously, at the District One meet, a weaker 5 can get buried in the incredible depth available at Lehigh. However, I’m not quite as concerned as everyone else. Henderson has been steadily improving all season and find themselves holding an incredibly strong top 4 that has been showing consistent improvement from week to week. Their top 4 is probably the best in the district and arguably the best in the state. This is the part of the season where Knapp tends to find his stride while Swart and Barchet are going to challenge 16 minutes in a fast enough race. Smucker is probably the best freshman the team has had since Reiny Barchet (who was 14th at states) and Tony Russell (who won the JV race) so it’s not unreasonable to expect a top 30 finish from him. With this kind of group leading the charge, a finish of around 120th for their #5 gets them through to states (but it’s close). A finish of around 90th gets you in the hunt for a top 3 finish.

 

Stoga was the #2 team from Districts a year ago and returns many of their key pieces. They have had a bit of an up and down season this year after running excellent at some early season meets against DT West, Pennsbury and Henderson, dominating Pennsbury at McQuaid and then faltering against LaSalle at Manhattan. Despite all these races, it’s still hard to see the real Conestoga. There first full 5k of the season was at Central Leagues, which they dominated. The Central League isn’t as strong as it has been in year’s past, but they scored 31 points and took care of business. It was a slightly less dominate performance than O’Hara had against almost the same field. At all of their meets this year Stoga seems to be missing a piece or two, holding out Cruikshank multiple times as well as Cooper. When they had their main 5 toe the line at McQuaid we saw their potential.  This Stoga team reminds me very slightly of the 2012 Henderson team. That Henderson team in 2012 was determined to do one thing: win states. They rested key runners at Chesmonts and Districts and put all their eggs in one basket at states. Maybe that is a version of what Stoga is doing this year? Hard to say for sure.

 

Marston has been a stud this year and should get a nice PR at Lehigh. Killian Nelson has been really strong as well with Manhattan really his only disappointing race. Murray, Cooper and Cruikshank are all close to 16:10or faster on the right day given their resumes. I also like Iffert as a 6 who is ready to come in and clean up the pieces of things start to go wrong for a top 5 guy. The thing that always excited me about Stoga was how good their 5 guys could be on the right day. They had an off day at Manhattan, just look at their results compared to FM, who they were much more competitive with at McQuaid. I’m not about to jump off the bandwagon here at Districts. I’d be surprised if Stoga doesn’t win, and stunned if they don’t make states. But hey, that’s why you run the races.

 

Council Rock North is likely the biggest lock for states. They always find a way and, as usual, they are starting to turn things on when it matters. They edged Pennsbury at leagues and will probably take another step this week at Districts. While I won’t rule out them sneaking in and grabbing the district title, I don’t expect it. Not because I don’t think this CRN squad is good (because clearly they are), but because I don’t think they are all that interested in it. I think this team wants to do it’s best running at the state championships and that’s where things will click. This week should just be another step in the right direction. I’ll be most interested to see if Griswold can prove he is a top 40 threat at states at this meet. For CRN to challenge for a top 3 spot (and maybe even top 5 spot) in Hershey, they need to get a second front runner to go with Arita. Their pack is clearly starting to develop into a top group, but somebody will need to break out to solidify that top 3.

 

DT West is probably the only team I could see beating Stoga. They have a front runner in Sappey who I think probably won’t be more than 2 or 3 points away from Marston, negating part of his advantage. Then they have a really solid pack of 5. Ryan Barton needs to keep Nelson in his sights and the rest of the pack needs to compete hard with Cooper, Cruikshank and Murray. If Charlie Barton can continue to have success like he did at Chesmonts, this team is scary.  I worry about youth much more at states than districts, although it can still play a role at a significant meet. Overall, I’d be surprised if DTWest doesn’t punch a ticket to states. I’m pretty surprised that so many people are worried about DT West and Henderson. I’m just not seeing many weaknesses here.

 

(Is it a times thing? People get so hung up on times, but it’s Cross Country! The Chesmont kids ran on a very different course than Lehigh. The Lehigh kids each ran in very different types of races. Same goes for the Central League. Throw times out the window people, they score the meets based on place not time!)

 

Pennsbury and CB West are my two bubble teams for Districts. CB West I feel probably has the higher ceiling, if everything clicks they could easily end up a top 3 team, but Pennsbury seems like a safer bet. I am a huge fan of the CB West team. They have done an excellent job developing a good, young pack. Plus it’s worth noting that Fortna is an underrated front runner. He’s been really solid this year, mixing it up consistently with guys like Arita, Ryan James and Connor McMenamin. I would be surprised if he isn’t sub 16 this year weather permitting. Most of their guys will be back next year to give this another shot if they don’t squeeze into states this year. It hurts me to leave these guys out of the state title race, but I have Pennsbury slipping by. Webb is a great front runner and Sauer is an excellent #2 who I think could race with Fortna on the right day (Sauer’s PR is sub 16 from last year). Bortman, Wick and Tokar match up fairly evenly with McDonald, Davies and Mass with the latter being better on the right day. However, Pennsbury is an experienced team that made it to states a year ago. They have a lot of older runners who have their backs against the wall this time around and I think they edge their way in. But I expect things to be very, very close. Tokar and Mass will probably be the key runners to watch. I’m a little worried about Mass’s health (missed a dual meet, rough day at Tennent, rough day at Leagues after a fantastic start to the season) so I give the nod to Pennsbury.

 

As consolation, however, in my latest round of predictions, I snuck Ian Davies into states as the final qualifier. As the Senior leader of that squad, I’m rooting for him to have a big day and get a chance to compete at states.

 

Individually, we should be in for a real treat. What Jake Brophy and Casey Comber did this past week was absurd. Think about it. The two were just in a one on one race around Lehigh, a course meant to hold hundreds upon hundreds of runners. By themselves, they managed to push each other to 15:08 and15:12! Those times are incredibly fast for a league meet. They are significantly faster than Miles ran during his Footlocker Regional champ year. Brophy ran faster than Russell’s15:11 as a Junior. Comber’s time is faster than Hibbs, Quinn, Magaha, and Campbell have ever run. They are the two fastest league meet times I can ever remember. After a performance like that, sub 15 is on the table and both guys have to be in the state title conversation (although Abert is still a heavy favorite).

 

Admittedly, I am a little concerned about these two being pretty tired, thus leaving the door open for Webb, Marston or Power to upset for Gold. Power is coming off a disappointing team finish at conferences and has already bested Brophy this year at the state course. Marston nearly became the course record holder at McQuaid and beat Bryce Millar there (a guy who ran almost 12 flat at Manhattan). Marston has killed it this year and, yes, Power is a strength runner, but keep in mind Power ran 15:36 here last year to Marston’s 15:50. So I think people are underrating Power’s speed. Webb has been quiet all season but his sub 15:50 mark at leagues apparently came off a very fast close. I’ve been a huge fan of Webb for years so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him steal the district title this year, but he doesn’t have the impressive marks of Power, Brophy, Comber or Marston to back up that kind of prediction.

 

Sappey and Knapp (and Diestelow) are the sleeper picks for the title. Sappey is the conference champion for the always impressive Chesmont league and, although the race was close, I got the impression Sappey had some left in the tank. Knapp ran sub 15:40 this race last year, so a low 15:30s type of performance isn’t out of the question. Diestelow is gaining momentum as a sleeper pick for individual champ this year based on his solid progression. I’m not quite on board the bandwagon, but he is one of the few runners the past two years who has broken the 16 minute barrier both times, running 15:50ish and 15:45ish. He could be in shape to run 15:30s as well.

 

A few key potential state qualifiers were MIA this weekend, but I included them anyway, just at a slightly reduced position in case sickness or injury is involved. Those include Perlman, Josh Smith and Scarpill. I like all of those guys to make states if healthy and Perlman and Smith could be well under 16. Dylan Eddinger is one of my sleeper picks to have a big day for Boyertown. I’m also high on Connor McMenamin to contend for a top 10 finish.

 

Team wise, 6-12 is going to be very exciting in it’s own right. CB East is the favorite as Brophy and Sands give them a very nice start out front in a big meet. Behind them, I expect North Penn and Horsham to have bounce back days. Horsham is another program that knows how to peak at the right time and could be dangerous in a big meet with a front runner, especially if Timm steps up at the 2 spot. North Penn has really big potential. Collins and Tung are both sleeper picks for sub 16 and Cooney has been much stronger this season than what he showed at leagues. I really like their top 4, and their 5-6 punch has been developing quite well in recent weeks. If this team gets on the line feeling strong and healthy, they should turn heads. Spring Ford has the impressive low stick in Power and then a variety of young guns who are looking to avenge their conference meet loss. Rustin and Coatesville looked great at Chesmonts.

 

(Note: Team Scores are probably a bit on the low side, I would expect those numbers to be higher on race day)

 

1       Conestoga       137

2       DT West 173

3       CR North        169

4       Henderson       194

5       Pennsbury       200

6       CB West 206

7       CB East

8       North Penn

9       Rustin

10      Spring Ford

11      Bensalem

12      Hatboro Horsham

13      Coatesville

 

1       Brophy          CB East

2       Comber  Hatboro Horsham

3       Power           Spring Ford

4       Webb            Pennsbury

5       Marston Conestoga

6       Sappey          DT West

7       Knapp           Henderson

8       Diestelow       West Chester East

9       Arita           CR North

10      Fortna          CB West

11      McMenamin       Souderton

12      Perlman Lower Merion

13      Hanna           CR South

14      Sauer           Pennsbury

15      Conway  Owen J Roberts

16      Nelson          Conestoga

17      Eddinger        Boyertown

18      R. Barton        DT West

19      Barchet Henderson

20      Sands           CB East

21      Swart           Henderson

22      Tung            North Penn

23      Griswold        CR North

24      Carmody Rustin

25      O'Reilly        DT East

26      Murray          Conestoga

27      Smucker Henderson

28      MaGuire CR South

29      Scarpill                CB South

30      Mays            Bensalem

31      Collins         North Penn

32      Sickman Harriton

33      Kirshenbaum     Methacton

34      Galligan        Sprinfield Delco

35      Ilgenfritz      Avon Grove

36      Marcelis        Wissahickon

37      J. Smith        Avon Grove

38      Cruikshank      Conestoga

39      Davies          CB West

40      Maxwell Kennent

41      McDonald        CB West

42      Laitman CR North

43      Ebby            Harriton

44      Bullock         DT West

45      Shah            Bensalem

46      Haas            CR North

47      C. Barton        DT West

48      Ettien          Coatesville

49      Heinz           CR North

50      Smith           Spring Ford

 

AA

The AA District One race is going to be a dog fight of it’s own. Pottsgrove is the two time defending champs of AA and has also finished as a top 2 team in the state the past two years. Meanwhile Holy Ghost Prep has given them all they could handle at districts for back to back meets but ended up with nothing to show for it. It’s unfortunate that this district has and only will be sending one team to states despite the talent.

 

Further complicating matters is the addition of Bishop Shanahan to the equation. BS had a solid showing at Chesmonts against the larger schools and Breslin took steps to prove he is a strong front runner and possibly even a title contender at Districts. He is joined by Kolimago, Yoquinto, Fromhartz and Kelly who have formed a solid pack behind their leader.

 

HG Prep held favorite status for most of the year, but Pottsgrove asserted itself as dangerous once again at the PAC championships, defeating Perk Valley and Spring Ford. Derek Lopez is having a fantastic season after medaling at states a year ago and will be joined by Wurtz and Underwood as potential top 10 finishers. Neeson and Eaton will likely round out the top 5. If Prep is going to defeat Pottsgrove and Bishop Shanahan they will not only need to assert themselves at the front with McLoughlin and Lennon, but also continue to develop their pack. Last year Connell and Kardish ran excellent races at districts, but Pottsgrove was still able to win because of their superior pack running. If HGP wants to avoid déjà vu, they will need Dineen, Donahue, and Flood to compete for top 15 spots.

 

In the end, although I really like both Shanahan and Holy Ghost’s teams, I think Pottsgrove is a strong, experienced team that is confident and clicking at the right time. That gives them a slight edge in my mind for the team title and the lone states spot.

 

Individually, beyond the front runners from these teams, Keiper from Upper Perk has a chance to compete for the district title. His teammate, Detweiler and inner conference rival McGinnis from Phoenixville will also hope to mix it up for a top 10 finish and a spot to the state championships.

 

1       Pottsgrove              45

2       Holy Ghost              54

3       Bishop Shanahan 55

 

1       Lopez           Pottsgrove

2       McLoughlin      Holy Ghost

3       Breslin         Bishop Shanahan

4       Wurtz           Pottsgrove

5       Keiper          Upper Perk

6       Lennon          Holy Ghost

7       Underwood       Pottsgrove

8       Kolimago        Bishop Shanahan

9       McGinnis        Phoenixville

10      Detweiler       Upper Perk

11      Donahue Holy Ghost

12      Smiley          Phoenixville

13      Yoquinto        Bishop Shanahan

14      Fromhartz       Bishop Shanahan

15      Neeson  Pottsgrove

16      Dineen          Holy Ghost

 

A

New Hope Solisbury narrowly defeated Jenkintown a year ago for the only spot to states out of this district in one of the most exciting team races of the week. This year, New Hope looks to defend their title behind individual favorite Greg House. House has been solid all year and has been a solid leader for his squad as well. The pack of men behind him includes the Cammarratas and Nuemann who have each helped as key contributors to their top 4.

 

Jenkintown will look to avenge last year’s loss behind Geer and Jackson, but may lack the 4-5 depth needed to upend the reigning champs from their throne. Church Farm School has had a solid year as well behind Jaw-yoonis and, probably my favorite name in the history of names: Slam Dunkley. Yes, I have seen it like that in multiple results now. If it’s a type-o, it’s the best type-o ever. If not, it’s the coolest name ever. Good luck to Slam and company.

 

Individually, this is House’s race to lose, but Watson from Devon Prep, Geer from Jenkintown and Gunden from Christopher Dock are among the runners trying to pull off the upset. Also in the mix will be Harvey from Delaware County Christian and Stemler from Philmont.

 

1       House           New Hope Solisbury

2       Watson  Devon Prep

3       Geer            Jenkintown

4       Gunden  Christopher Dock

5       Harvey          Delaware County Christian

6       Stemler Philmont

7       Jackson Jenkintown

8       Slam Dunkley    Church Farm School

9       Jaw-yoonis      Church Farm School

10      Kennell         Christopher Dock

11      C. Cammarrata   New Hope Solisbury

12      Logie           Delaware County Christian

 

1       New Hope Solisbury      57

2       Jenkintown