District 7 Predictions

AAA

North Allegheny is beginning to reassert itself as state title favorites. Their big three looked fantastic at the league championships in CAL and they bested district rivals Mount Lebanon in the process. NA was the preseason favorite, but the transfer of Seamus Love last year combined with a tough loss to O’Hara at Pre States suddenly made NA seem vulnerable. However, in recent weeks their 4-5 (and 6-7) have come on very strong to give the squad some assurance behind their front running trio.

 

McGoey has also continued to impress this year. He has been dominant on the District 7 scene and his only real blemish on his resume is a 4th place finish at Pre States (behind three phenomenal performances). Wharrey has been fantastic as well. He has shadowed McGoey all year and as a result, his performances have not gotten quite the credit they deserve. Last year NA came out blazing at Pre States but faded a bit at stats so this year they may have switched things up to help them peak later in the year. An attempt at the NXN regional meet may also be on the schedule, which would mean these guys still have over a month of training to go.

 

Lebo’s best chance at dethroning the nearly decade long streak of North Allegheny at WPIALs is a tight pack. Gunzenhauser and Baun having both had their moments in recent weeks as front runners, but NA’s 3 has been able to put a serious gap on Lebo’s (typically Harris or Brandenstein). That gap has to shrink, which means Lebo needs to file in after their front runners and keep their spread down close to 30-40 seconds. They also will look for a bounce back race from Matt Stone or continued improvement from their 6 and 7. I think this race could end up closer than most people think, but NA should get the W.

 

The race for 3rd is highly compelling to me. I’ve never been quite sold on North Hill’s 4th and 5th runners, however, the teams I have chasing them have not quite impressed me in recent weeks. The district meet could result in two extremes for North Hills. 1) They get a strong performance from their 4-5, their top 3 duplicate their recent performance at Pittsburgh Central Catholic, and they contend with Lebo for 2nd. 2) Their 4-5 are a bit underwhelming and their top 3 don’t have a big enough day to carry them past the pack for Pitts CC or the sleeper pick in Canon Mac (who has it’s own big three that is making noise). In the end I think North Hills holds on, but if VanKooten can set the tone with a win out front Pittsburg Central Catholic will make things interesting.

 

Individually, McGoey has given us no reasons to doubt his fitness. He wrecked the Cal Course this past week and no one has really been close to him all year from the WPIAL besides his teammate Wharrey. Those guys are poised for a 1-2 finish once again, however, I think someone sneaks in and breaks up. The list of names that could do this is fairly long: Heinauer, VanKooten, Susalla, and Graca come to mind with Gunzenhauser a possible sleeper. I worry a tiny bit about Wharrey at Coopers (he had a tough race there last week) as opposed to somewhere like Hershey (fantastic race last year) and Heinauer has run fantastic this season. Van Kooten has been a little rocky in recent weeks, but he has the talent to contend for the title if things fall into place and he can stay on his feet. Graca faced some midseason hardships, but has shown signs he will bounce back in the coming weeks. TGunz has been quickly picking up steam the past few weeks and Lebo is hungry for revenge this weekend.

 

Ethan Linderman is a strong name that should be remembered this weekend. Nick Wolk from Peter’s is another potential top 5 guy on the right weekend. Tanner Quiggle and Mike Kolor for Seneca Valley were key members of the stud 4x8 that SV put together last outdoors and Quiggle was top 20 or so at this meet a year ago. Kolor was a 4:20 miler who I expect to have a big breakthrough this week at Districts. Some of the guys I was super high on early in the season (i.e. TGunz, Dom Perretta, Dylan Eddinger, etc.) have started to come on in recent weeks. Kolor was another one of the guys in that group.

 

1       North Allegheny         54

2       Mount Lebanon           91

3       North Hills                     141

4       Pitts CC                                164

5       Canon Mac                       189

6       Fox Chapel

7       Baldwin

 

1       McGoey  North Allegheny

2       Heinauer        North Hills

3       Wharrey North Allegheny

4       VanKooten       Pitts CC

5       Graca           Fox Chapel

6       Susalla         Plum

7       Gunzenhauser    Mount Lebanon

8       Seel            North Allegheny

9       Linderman       Canon Mac

10      Baun            Mount Lebanon

11      Wolk            Peters Township

12      McNally North Hills

13      Kolor           Seneca Valley

14      Conboy  Baldwin

15      Burchlaw        North Hills

16      Quiggle Seneca Valley

17      Burkhardt       Bethel Park

18      Harris          Mount Lebanon

19      Trottier        Franklin Regional

20      Migliozzi       North Allegheny

21      Halawski        Fox Chapel

22      Stupak          North Allegheny

23      Brandenstein    Mount Lebanon

24      Mansfield       Canon Mac

25      Young            Pitts CC

26      Deible          North Allegheny (6)

27      Westrick        Chartier's Valley

28      Laugherty       Norwin

29      Strosko         Canon Mac

30      Schleicher      Pine Richland

31      Krist           Hampton

32      Beveridge       Butler

33      Stone           Mount Lebanon

34      Terrell         Penn Hills

35      Connolly        Gateway

 

AA

The AA and A District 7 playoff pictures are wild. Quaker Valley has been the top squad in the District in recent years and they seem to have the pieces to win another district title this year. Zach Skolnevich is a sleeper pick for the AA state title and a favorite to grab a win here at Coopers, giving QV a big time low stick. Lang, Hubsch and Cooper will look to provide strong runs behind him to compete with some of the excellent packs that will be competing for District gold.

 

The best of those packs at this point appears to be Knoch. These boys ran strong at Pre States and their league championships. They have excellent front runners in Grumski and Carlsson (a sleeper in this race) and add nice depth with runs like Freyermuth and Ejzak just behind. That’s a killer top 4. A big day from their #5 and I think they will be district champs.

 

South Fayette will look to get back to the state championships this season, relying on their big three of Pfiel, Sandala and Snodgrass. They have one of the deeper rosters of this group which should help them compete for a district title, especially if their front runners can crack the top 10. Mars looks like they sat a few of their top runners at their league meet, so hopefully there are no injuries here. Knox and Mrdjenovich could be top 10 guys, health permitting and that would be the lift Mars needs to sneak by Beaver and Hopewell, both of whom have been fantastic in recent weeks and will be gunning for the final spots to states.

 

Individually, the stud sophomore Skolnevich is favored to bring home the title. Sean Hilverding was a top 5 guy at states a year ago in a surprise run and he added an early season sub 16 mark to boost his resume. He struggled here at WPIALs last year and will be out for revenge. Meanwhile, Noah Smith of Ringgold has been fantastic this year, competing hard with many top runners from AAA, AA and A in District 7. Zack White is a sleeper pick to steal the title from West Allegheny.

 

1       Quaker Valley   100

2       Knoch           104

3       South Fayette   119

4       Mars            132

5       Beaver Area

6       Hopewell

7       West Allegheny

 

1       Skolnevich      Quaker Valley

2       N. Smith        Ringgold

3       Hilverding      Waynesburg

4       Bickerton       South Moreland

5       White           West Allegheny

6       Knox            Mars

7       Grumski Knoch

8       Mrdjenovich     Mars

9       Lott            Elwood City

10      Bumgarner       Waynesburg

11      Lamison Beaver Area

12      Lenze           Indiana Area

13      Nero            Hopewell

14      Lang            Quaker Valley

15      Pfiel           South Fayette

16      Sandala South Fayette

17      Hubsch          Quaker Valley

18      Ross            Blackhawk

19      Carlsson        Knoch

20      Cicone          Hopewell

21      Snodgrass       South Fayette

22      Freyermuth      Knoch

23      Cooper          Quaker Valley

24      Carei           Uniontown

25      Ejzak           Knoch

26      Rendar          Beaver Area

27      Artinger        West Allegheny

28      Porter          Mars

29      Klatt           Uniontown

30      L. Pittner      Beaver Area

31      Pettit          Knoch

32      Faser           South Fayette

33      J. Pittner      Beaver Area

34      Kominski        Hopewell

35      Cusick          South Fayette

36      Harr            Derry

37      Wahl            West Allegheny

38      Bowser          Freeport

39      Pusateri        Trinity

40      Schrott         West Mifflin

 

A

There will be a mad dash to the line in A for the 3 state qualifying spots. There are 5 teams that likely have hopes of claiming one of those spots including defending district champs and reigning Pre State champs Avonworth. Avonworth has been consistently strong with a good pack led by Joyce. Domencic and Noethiger have been nice 2-3 runners as well and they go 7 deep, something not many A teams can say. Sacred Heart also has strong depth and Ballou is an underrated talent out front. Sewickley has arguably the best front runners of the bunch with Griffin Mackey poised to compete for the district title and Clouse and Hansen each having had big moments this season. Sewickley seems like they have rarely run at full strength this season so there potential is compelling. Hopefully there are no injuries to worry about and they can compete for the district title.

 

I think those three teams are the clear top 3 and should all be within a couple points of each other at Districts (my projections currently say about 5 points). Winchester Thurston has a chance to break things up, but they have had some injury issues of their own. Loevner has not been 100% this year and I haven’t seen Delaney much in recent weeks. Those two and Littman, when all are healthy, create a killer top 3 that no other team can match. But they are not incredibly deep through 5 guys like their competitors and as mentioned, health is a concern. Vincentian is a sleeper team that could potentially get involved. Koryak is a front runner with district champion aspirations and Adams and Reed are great pieces at 2-3. They have a deeper squad than many realize so if one or more of the top teams falter, they could potentially sneak in and surprise.

 

Individually, I think this should be a fantastic race between sophomore Griffin Mackey and Junior Dom Perretta. Perretta got the better of Mackey last time out and seems to be rounding into form, but Mackey has been consistently solid all year. I think he gets his revenge here at districts, especially considering the team title is on the line. I believe Perretta is a week away, maybe at states he does something big, but I’m not all in on him just yet. Colten Trimble from South Side has been consistently solid as well, cut from the Noah Smith mold. Landin Delaney and Will Loevner were fantastic track runners last year and if both are healthy they will contend for the title. Koryak is a strong 800m guy who has the closing speed to pick some big names off at the end of the race.

 

1       Avonworth                       85

2       Our Lady of Sacred Heart        89

3       Sewickley                       90

4       Vincentian Academy              124

5       Winchester Thurston             150

 

1       Mackey  Sewickley

2       Perretta        Beaver Falls

3       Trimble South Side

4       Koryak          Vincentian Academy

5       Ballou          Our Lady of Sacred Heart

6       DiVecchio       Burgettstown

7       Delaney Winchester Thurston

8       MaGuire Trinity Christian

9       Joyce           Avonworth

10      Loevner Winchester Thurston

11      Kocent          Our Lady of Sacred Heart

12      Clouse          Sewickley

13      Leech           Shady Side

14      Hansen          Sewickley

15      Domencic        Avonworth

16      Leber           Shenango

17      Noethiger       Avonworth

18      Wisniewski      Northgate

19      Littman Winchester Thurston

20      Adams           Vincentian Academy

21      Bauerle Avonworth

22      Michalenko      Our Lady of Sacred Heart

23      Fritts          Avonworth

24      Hoffman Our Lady of Sacred Heart

25      Conrad          Freedom

26      Gonsowski       Riverview

27      Cahlan          Our Lady of Sacred Heart

28      Hanlon          Sewickley

29      Salem           Shenango

30      Reed            Vincentian Academy

31      Bonnent Northgate

32      Zentgraf        Riverview

33      Shannon Vincentian Academy

34      Ziegler         Our Lady of Sacred Heart (6)

35      Magee           Sewickley