District Week Previews: District Three

by Jarrett Felix

Click here for a full breakdown of all the state qualifiers from this district

District 3 Championships 10/29

A (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

New this year, District 3 will be getting an extra helping of A squads. Defending state champions Camp Hill should be back to defend their title, but another spot is up for grabs in 2016. I’d guess this spot will go to Tulpehocken, a solid squad that has been overshadowed by the nice stretch Camp Hill has had in recent seasons. Jacob and John Cox along with Tanner Schlater should help pull this team into a state qualifying position.

Camp Hill is the favorite for both golds this weekend as Ian Gabig will be trying to keep the trophies in house. Gabig just missed out on a state medal last year, but seems like a top 10 threat in the state based on his early season performances this fall. He rolled through the competition at the Big Spring Invitational and seems like a safe pick for the title here. That being said, Caleb Sneller of Dayspring and Evan Schlosser of York Catholic have each shown flashes of big potential in recent weeks. I also like Morgan Morrison of West Short Christian as a potential sleeper.

I’m hoping to learn a little more about Camp Hill’s chances at the state championship this weekend. We know they lost some key pieces from last year’s team to graduation (and the blog picked one of them up), but they return Gabig and top 5 threat Dan Shank with Matt Little and Patrick Dorsey who, at the very least, have experience in high pressure situations. A dominate win this weekend could indicate this team is a top 5 threat at states. Especially when you add in that at least one District 4 and District 2 contender that could have been there last year will not be there under the new qualifying system.

AA (3 Teams, 15 Individuals)

Last year’s AA District 3 Championships were loaded. But, for the most part, they were loaded with seniors. The top 7 runners were all seniors and 16 of the top 22 have graduated in total. Of those 6 returners, three of them ran for York Suburban, including the top 2 returners in Bryce Ohl and Jarrett Raudenski. So it’s not hard to guess who this year’s district favorite is. YS won the Foundation meet for the second straight season and stormed through their schedule to date. Peter Wagner has looked excellent so far this season and Josh Kerr has really made a nice leap. This could be a big chance for a statement victory for YS heading into the state meet where they will have revenge on their minds against Dallas.

But Wyomissing is hoping to give them a strong challenge. Earlier in the season at PTXC, Wyomissing hung tough with York Suburban, leaning on a very strong top 3. Freshman Ben Kuhn will be a big x-factor for them in this match up. How will he handle the pressure of the big stage?

I’ve got Trinity grabbing the third and final qualifying spot this year. Milton Hershey could potentially challenge as they’ve been close in the past and come up just short.

Individually, the title should stay with Wyomissing for another season. Junior Joe Cullen has been on fire this year. He won in the Blue Race at PTXC and finished second at the Foundation Invite behind only Isaac Davis. He’s fresh off a runaway victory at his league championship meet and still looms as a sleeper pick for state gold if he can keep close enough to the front runners to use his 1:54 speed. Behind Cullen, I’m expecting a trio of York Suburban runners to challenge and also Chad Long of Bermudian Springs who looked excellent at his league meet against those YS runners.

A sleeper pick here could be Silas Buckwalter of Donegal. He had a big breakthrough on this course when he finished first out of the AA runners at the Big Spring Invite earlier this fall. I also like Bradley Filler of Gettysburg and Ismail Kirkwood of Big Spring (running at home) as guys to make noise toward the middle/back of the state qualifying window.

AAA (4 Teams, 20 Individuals)

Well, we are here folks. We have finally reached the best district in the state in 2016. And yes, feel free to check, but this is indeed the District 3 Preview. Barring something impressive this weekend, District 3 will have the individual and team favorite for the state championship in house. They also have a ton of the top individuals in the state according to etrain’s top 50 rankings.

And here’s an interesting fact that should be mentioned. AAA District 3 has really struggled at the state championship in recent years for whatever reason. I’ve always speculated that it was due to the fact that D3 used to have to run Hershey back to back weeks. Our own Sean Collins noted to me on a podcast a few years back that he felt much of the disadvantage had to do with the change in schedule that came from racing mid-week and then going back to Saturday. Well, this season District 3 has finally eliminated both the mid-week race and the back to back Hershey course issues. Those factors being cleared away plus one of the greatest groups of talent for the district in recent history could be the perfect storm for the middle of the state.

As for this race in particular, I’ve got Noah Affolder winning the district title just as he has done all season. That being said, I believe he will be coming off getting his wisdom teeth removed and may be looking to conserve a little something for states. If Nate Henderson goes after this race from the gun at a super fast pace, it wouldn’t completely surprise me to see Noah hang back and take second. The only problem with that theory is that Noah is competitor and I doubt he will want to lose under any circumstances. He will likely give it everything he has to get first and score that 1 point in the team standings as well.

I’m excited to see Sam Affolder and Zach Lefever match up for the first time. I’ve gone back and forth on who I think would win in a match-up of these two and I think both are ultra-talented. This should be a great battle, especially if Lefever is over his recent sickness.

Then we have a ton of potential state medalists to sort through in the standings. Morgan Cupp and Alex Tomasko of Mechanicsburg have been very consistent all season long and seem like safe bets to place in the top 10. The Lower Dauphin duo has also been excellent, but their normal rotation got a bit of a shake up last race at Mid Penns when Kyler Shea finished as the team’s #3. Throw in Isaac Kole and Hempfield #1 Nick Norton and you have a mess of guys who will all be shooting for sub 16 on this tricky course (weather permitting). Yahya Soliman of Cumberland Valley had a terrific district championship performance at this meet last year and he can’t be ignored as a sleeper to break into the top 10.

There’s a ton of other excellent names at the top that I don’t want to waste a ton of time mentioning individually, so I highly suggest you click on the link at the top for the full breakdown.

Now, let’s talk team battle because that, to me at least, will be far more interesting. I personally feel like this team battle is going to be one of the best we see all season, even including the state championship. Carlisle should be able to take the victory. They have a reliable 1-2 punch that allow them to race 3 on 5 and their 5-6-7 runners have looked really solid as of late. I’d be surprised to see them outside first place and stunned to see them outside the qualifying group (top 4). Considering they made it in the past two seasons with, essentially, less talented versions of the same team, I’d have to say they’ve got good odds.

Cumberland Valley seems to have a knack for making states every year, no matter the circumstances. While this will surely be their toughest challenge, it’s hard to bet against the pack they have on paper. Higgins and Soliman are strong front runners and I’ve always thought Andrew Brown was a strong runner. If Nick Demario runs the way he did at Mid Penns, they will be tough to leave out of the state qualifying picture. If they get Gleeson back even better. There just seems to be enough depth here to get the job done, especially when so many other teams have depth concerns in this district.

Now those two teams are who I am most confident about. After that my feelings are a bit shakier. A couple of these top teams were missing someone at their league championships. Hempfield appeared to be missing Coby Mattes and Patrick Willig and, as a result, they got jumped big time by Manheim Central. Mechanicsburg was missing Michael Vigliano at Mid-Penns and, because they have a large gap between him and their #6, their score slipped a bit as well. Assuming that those runners return to the line-up, these two schools are my picks for the last two spots. That being said, I have a weird feeling that only Hempfield will be at full strength for this match up and, therefore, I’ve got them in and Mechanicsburg out.

I’ll say this real quick before I move on. The way Knepper and Sulon are running right now for Mechanicsburg, if Vig does come back, this team could potentially win the district and, therefore, potentially win the state championship.

Moving on. Lower Dauphin seems like a smart pick for this 4^th spot. But I have my reservations. Their top 3 is unreal, but I’ve been burned by that top 3 before. In year’s past, they’ve had this kind of low scoring top group and still failed to advance on to states. This year might be different, particularly because their 4^th runner Mark Walsh is crushing it recently. Still, Walsh is just a freshman so he may struggle at the most important point of the season. If he doesn’t, LD is in. If he does, that opens the flood gates.

I’m not ready to count out Manheim Central or Hershey. Both of these teams have fantastic top fours and are just a #5 away from being really dangerous. Manheim Central’s top 4 guys crushed this course when they came here back in September. I’d like to see a couple things from them if they want to advance. First, whoever their top guy is really needs to be knocking on the door for the top 10. MC can’t let teams like Lower Dauphin, Hempfield and Mechanicsburg put 3 guys in before their #1 runner. Then, they need to round out the pack. Hershey is a similar formula. Plus, they’ve had some demons at districts after big performances at Mid Penns. Maybe this year it flips.

But the team is Twin Valley. They are the school that I think could really mess up the whole equation (like Wilson last year and almost Twin Valley). This team had a killer pack at their league championships without their top runner. If he comes back, they have a front running presence to pair with a great pack that could tilt the landscape. On paper, it just feels like that pack is going to be too far back of the leaders to really make a dent in the standings. But don’t forget, Twin Valley finished 5^th last year despite the fact that they had no finishers inside the top 30 at the district meet. This year, you can make a case the pack is better. But is the rest of the district better as well? Maybe that will keep TV on the outside looking in this year.

Ultimately, I’m picking Carlisle-CV-Hempfield-LD for my top 4 teams. But boy it is going to be fun to see who proves me wrong.