Wisconsin/Pre-Nats Previews and Predictions

By: Garrett Zatlin

This weekend will be one of the most exciting times in NCAA cross country racing. Wisconsin and Pre-Nats will bring in nearly every top team in the nation so that they may go head-to-head and see how each program stacks up against each other. Although the Penn State Open will draw in some top-tier teams (Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Mississippi) most of the action will be centered around what happens in Terre Haute (Pre-Nats) and Madison (Wisconsin).

The predictions below are based on racing styles of each individual and team. They are not necessarily based on ranking. The Projected Points extend beyond the top 30 or top 50 individuals that are shown. The top five from every predicted team is taken into account. 

A few notes...

-Eastern Kentucky and Portland are signed up for both Wisconsin and Pre-Nats. We will assume that they will run at Wisconsin. 

-Teams like Stanford and Eastern Kentucky haven't always run their best squads at these meets. These predictions assume that they will run their seven best runners.

-Guys like Chartt Miller, Jacob Burcham, Ben Flanagan, and a few others have yet to compete this season. It is assumed that they aren't injured or redshirting and will be competing this weekend.

WISCONSIN

Place	Team	Projected Points
1	Syracuse	152
2	Georgetown	162
3	Iona*	177
4	Northern Arizona*	177
5	BYU	191
6	Wisconsin	194
7	Colorado State	203
8	Stanford	205
9	Portland	224
10	Iowa State	277

Place	Individual	Team
1	Justyn Knight	Syracuse
2	Futsum Ziensellassie	NAU
3	Sean McGorty	Stanford
4	Jerrell Mock	Colorado State
5	Malachy Schrobilgen	Wisconsin
6	Morgan McDonald	Wisconsin
7	Grant Fisher	Stanford
8	George Parsons	NC State
9	Jonathan Green	Georgetown
10	Colin Bennie	Syracuse
11	Kieran Clements	Iona
12	Chartt Miller	Iona
13	Scott Carpenter	Georgetown
14	Colby Gilbert	Washington
15	Nicolas Montanez	BYU
16	Cory Glines	NAU
17	Harry Mulenga	Florida State
18	Jefferson Abbey	Colorado State
19	Dallin Farnsworth	BYU
20	Amos Kosgey	EKU
21	Ryan Robinson	Michigan State
22	Dylan Lafond	Illinois
23	Erik Rotich	EKU
24	Sherord Hardt	Michigan State
25	Gilbert Kirui	Iona
26	Philo Germano	Syracuse
27	Michael Williams	Washington State
28	Nick Tuck	Penn
29	Joel Reichow	South Dakota State
30	Nathan Weitz	NAU
31	Kasey Knevelbaard	Southern Utah
32	Darren Fahy	Georgetown
33	Jeff Thies	Portland
34	Matt Welch	Minnesota
35	Nicholas Raymond	Eastern Michiagn
36	Michael Vennard	Boise State
37	Andrew Gardner	Washington
38	Michael Clevenger	Georgetown
39	Rory Linkletter	BYU
40	Garrett Sweatt	Stanford
41	Tim Ball	Portland
42	Stephen Muhlrein	Portland
43	Jesse Reisser	Illinois
44	Olin Hacker	Wisconsin
45	Sam Levora	Washington State
46	Andrew Jordan	Iowa State
47	Ferdinand Edmund	UCLA
48	Brenden Shearn	Penn
49	Iliass Aouani	Syracuse
50	Thomas Pollard	Iowa State

Individuals

Wisconsin provides the most storylines as the crowded field will surely be an exciting one. Individually, it's going to come down to Knight, Futsum, or McGorty. It's really anyone's to win. Last year, it seemed like Knight was going to edge out McGorty for the win until an incredible kick from Marc Scott had them finishing 2nd and 3rd. However, the addition of Futsum to the 2016 field will most likely make the pace a bit more honest than last year's kick-down.

Other top 10 names like Malachy Schrobilgen and Jonathan Green will also be in the mix. Green will look to avenge his sub-par Paul Short performance while Schrobilgen has his eye on avenging his injury-filled 2015 season.

There are also a few wildcards to keep an eye out for. Michael Vennard and Dallin Farnsworth had pretty poor openers and they've shown that they can do better. I'll be interested to see what kind of performances they can put together in a big-time race. 

Sleeper picks include Harry Mulenga, Erik Rotich, and Nico Montanez. Can they continue the strong performances they've had as of late? They could be the new emerging stars to make their way into the top 50 after this weekend.

Teams

The team scoring will be tight and it will essentially come down to who has the best 5th man. Nearly every top team at Wisconsin is strong through 4 runners. However, there is plenty of uncertainty for at the fifth spot for teams like Syracuse, Wisconsin, NAU, and Georgetown. Luckily, they have strong front-runners pushing the team scoring down. 

While those teams may have some elite front-runners, others like Portland Iowa State will rely on their tight packs to get them through the weekend. However, the lack of a true low-stick in a race like this can come back to hurt some teams. A breakout race from one individual may be necessary for them to break into the top 5 teams. 

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PRE-NATS

Place	Team	Projected Points
1	Oregon	99
2	Colorado	108
3	Arkansas	140
4	Michigan	161
5	Furman	165
6	Indiana	190
7	UTEP	192

Place	Individual	Team
1	Edward Cheserek	Oregon
2	Edwin Kibichiy	Louisville
3	Lawrence Kipkoech	Campbell
4	John Dressel	Colorado
5	Jonah Koech	UTEP
6	Amon Terer	Campbell
7	CJ Albertson	Arizona State
8	Jacob Burcham	Oklahoma
9	Ben Saarel	Colorado
10	Andrew Ronoh	Arkansas
11	Matthew Maton	Oregon
12	Troy Fraley	Gonzaga
13	Matthew Schwartzer	Indiana
14	Kyle Eller	Air Force
15	Aaron Baumgarten	Michigan
16	Dillon Maggard	Utah State
17	Ben Flanagan	Michigan
18	Alex Short	San Francisco
19	Robert Brandt	California
20	Joe Klecker	Colorado
21	Sam Prakel	Oregon
22	Antony Kosgei	UTEP
23	Frankline Tonui	Arkansas
24	Alex George	Arkansas
25	Troy Reeder	Furman
26	Frank Lara	Furman
27	Tanner Anderson	Oregon
28	Trent Brendel	California
29	Michael Ward	Bradley
30	Andrew Johnston	Air Force

Individuals
Even during one the biggest weekends of the year for distance running, the one thing we can all agree on is that Edward Cheserek will win. He did, however, lose to Tommy Curtin of Virginia Tech last year.

While Ches may be the heavy favorite, he'll have to deal with two gutsy runners in Kibichiy and Kipkoech who enjoy taking the pace out hard. He'll also have to watch for Jonah Koech who is known for his speed on the track which typically contributes to a lethal kick.

It will also be interesting to see if the Colorado boys run. There's been a lot of questions as to whether or not they will be redshirting this season, and after this weekend we should have close to a definite answer.

Because so many teams have transitioned to running at Penn State or Wisconsin, the field is a touch smaller than it has been historically. That should leave the door open for some crazy breakout races. Some of the best sleepers to watch for are CJ Albertson and Troy Fraley who have quietly dominated smaller invitationals leading up to now.

Teams
Team-wise, this is Oregon's race to lose. In comparison to the most competitive teams, they have the best low-stick in Eddy and Ches as well as a lot of quality depth to back him up. There's not really any other team in the field that has shown the kind of team dynamic that the Ducks bring to the table.

Colorado (assuming they run Dressel and Saarel) will look to at least scare Oregon as they may have the best top three in the field. Arkansas will also be chasing the Ducks, but will need all of their runners to perform well on the same day to even come close to pulling off a win.

Other programs such as Michigan, Indiana, and UTEP have some great runners up-front, but don't seem completely safe at their fourth and fifth scoring positions. Whoever has the most complete team will finish higher at a meet like this.

The Furman Paladins are another team to watch out for as their group running and pack mentality will cause problems for teams who lack depth.
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Grab your popcorn ladies and gents, it's about to be one heck of a show.