District Week Previews: District Seven

By Jarrett Felix

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District 7 Championships 10/27

A (3 Teams, 15 Individuals)

Sewickley Academy has won the past two district championships, but it appears this year a new champion will be crowned. The big favorites heading into the meet are Winchester Thurston, who has already won the Foundation Invite and nearly swept during their last trip to Coopers Lake. The team was missing two important pieces (Tristan Forsythe and Shaun Hay) in their last meet at Freedom so this race is still worth tuning into, but if those guys are healthy, I’d be surprised to see WT toppled. At the very least, this race will serve as big confidence builder as Winchester Thurston prepares one last time before Hershey where they will face a field of times eager to knock them off their perch.

The battle for second and third is a bit more wide open. As things stand right now, I’d bet on Riverview and Avonworth to punch tickets. Avonworth, the district champs in 2013, have been left out of the state championship picture the last two seasons. However, after a very encouraging track season that featured a medal worthy 4x8 relay, Avonworth has carried the momentum nicely through the season. Michael Noethiger has led the way for this team and should provide a strong front running presence. As for Riverview, they were the third qualifiers a year ago behind Sewickley Academy and Winchester Thurston and return a lot of firepower. Most notably, Ben Barnes is back after a 9^th place finish at Districts last year as just a sophomore.

We can’t count out Sewickley Academy. Although we haven’t seen much from them this year, there’s always the chance they saved up a little something extra for district championships. Their wins the past two seasons have both been upsets (in my opinion) and they return their entire district championship squad from 2015 on paper. Who knows if anybody is healthy, but even if they are missing a key piece or two, this team has proven they can peak at the right moment and grab a state spot.

Last year, the 3^rd and final state qualifying spot was decided on a sixth man tie breaker between Riverview and Shenango. And 5^th place was just 1 point back of the other two (and ironically had the fastest sixth man). We can only hope we get a finish just as thrilling this time around.

Individually, assuming he is healthy, Tristan Forsythe has emerged as the clear favorite for the title. He ran sub 15:40 at Paul Short, but also cruised to victory at Foundation. The junior is a state medalist for both indoor and outdoor track as well. He’s got all the skills needed to win gold. If he doesn’t toe the line, his teammate Ben Littman may be the next logical choice for victory. Littman finished 8^th a year ago and has medaled at states each of the past two seasons. However, this year has clearly been his best. After medaling in the 3200 on the track, Littman has cranked things up a notch during XC and has rarely been bested by anyone not wearing his same jersey.

Outside of the 1-2 punch from Winchester Thurston, there is still the rest of the WT pack with runners like Shaun Hay, Sean Heintzleman and Gordon Pollock who each have top 10 potential based on their last Slippery Rock performance. However, I’m thinking a few guys come in and break up their sweep. Most notably, Washington’s Ben Heim should be up in the front pack. Heim finished 10^th last year and is coming off a career year on the track. Ben Barnes, Chris Kocent and Jarrett Boyd are all also in the mix for a big day.

And hey, we should at least mention the three returning stars on Sewickley Academy’s roster: Griffin Mackey, Ben Clouse and Henry Meakem. If any of those guys are healthy and running near their best, they are contenders for the top 3.

AA (3 Teams, 15 Individuals)

Earlier, I discussed how District 2 AA might be, pound for pound, the best district in the state. Well, this season the AA WPIAL will be looking to change that narrative. Especially now that they are down to just 3 teams and 15 individuals.

Individually, this district could pour a ton of guys onto the medal stand. Out front, you already have five guys coming back who finished in the top 13 at states last year. Yes, you read that right. The WPIAL boasts four of five of the first six returners from last year’s championships (only Isaac Davis breaks it up). They also bring back state medalists in Samuel Lenze (21^st) and Gannon Leech (A medalist last year). But wait! There’s more! We also have a trio from Greensburg Salem in Frankie King, Mark Brown and Cameron Binda who all could be state medalists if things break right.

This race is going to be spectacular. Leading the way, going for a three peat, is Zach Skolnekovich of Quaker Valley. He’s run away with titles at each meet this season and was 2^nd at states last year both in the fall and the spring. A big stretch run to his season and he will go down as a PA All-Time great. But he should have his hands full with Waynesburg’s Ben Bumgarner. The senior has been a tear this season, taking a mini leap from a guy who was already a top 10 runner in the state to a full-fledged title contender. Bumgarner struggled a bit at Coopers last year so he may be more vulnerable on this course than Hershey (where he excelled). But he’s still got an undefeated record to put on the table. And either he or Skolnekovich will lose that record this week.

The next tier of top talents will all team implications in the overall battle. Just three teams get to go to states and those teams will likely be Greensburg Salem (took the first five AA spots at Tri-States), Knoch (two time defending champs) and South Fayette (proven program with two top 10 guys in the state in Pfeil and Snodgrass). Greensburg Salem has looked phenomenal this season their top 3 is running really well. I want to see them throw down a statement victory this weekend and show me something in the 4-5 spot (which have looked great recently). They have a chance to be state champs in Hershey and a confidence building win this week could go a long way.

The other two programs will likely lean on their front running as well. I know the top guys on those schools are strong so I’ll be watching the packs. If those packs falter, there may be room for Uniontown or Indiana Area to slip in. Uniontown somehow always peaks well for this meet. They have a knack for showing up. Even when it seems like all their top guys have graduated, they rally a new squad and contend. This year they have Evan Klatt and freshman Sam Killinger leading the charge and keeping them in contention. They looked solid at Tri-States but were buried in the shadow of Greensburg Salem. They won’t be able to get to states if GS puts 5 in front of their 1 again, but I don’t think that’s happening this time around.

Meanwhile, Indiana Area has a very strong front runner in Samuel Lenze (kind of an under the radar type guy). Lenze really runs well on this Coopers course and has a couple top 5 finishes in the district already on his resume. Plus the Indiana Area team has a strong young pack who have grown a lot this year. Rocco Fanella qualified for states last year as a sophomore and is a great #2. If the pack behind him steps up, maybe they surprise.

And, of course, I’m sure Zach Skolnekovich would like to lead his Quaker Valley team back to the state championships. It’s been a surprisingly long drought for this team who was state champs back before the three classification move happened. Skolnekovich should start them out with a low stick, then it’s a matter of if they can beat out other top teams racing 4 on 5.

AAA (3 Teams, 15 Individuals)

I don’t think this has ever happened before in the history of my predictions. For the North Allegheny Tigers, I was extremely tempted to just write “NA 1, NA 2, etc.” instead of the actual runners names. Considering that A) I don’t even know for sure which seven are running and B) they all finished less than 10 seconds away from one another last weekend, I think it would have been a weirdly appropriate way to predict. Of course, I didn’t do that because, well, it seemed like cheating, so I took a stab at it. But I think that paints a picture of just what this NA team has looked like this year.

As I’ve said before, it’s hard to imagine a team running that closely together even if the goal was for everyone to run together, let alone if everyone is gunning all out. It’s just an epic display of competitive fire and team work. The pack has been both the down fall and the secret weapon for the Tigers as it has to be not only a mathematic advantage (they have one of the best 5s, 6s and 7s around) but also a mental one (imagine being on a competitor and being passed by 7 or 8 NA guys all at the same time!). They used it to their advantage at Tri-States, beating Seneca Valley and setting up the narrative of “Look out! Here comes NA and their pack!”

I personally love packs. I just find them really cool and it speaks to the team nature of XC that, in many people’s eyes, makes it so much better than track. But I will say, that I’m still a little apprehensive about picking the Tigers to win the WPIAL championship yet again. I won’t lie, I picked the Tigers (how can you go against that history?), but I think that Seneca Valley has a really, really good shot at beating them.

The loss to NA will only give Seneca Valley a little extra motivation and hunger going into this meet. And I really think they can improve in a couple spots. If Trey Razanauskus runs a little closer to Ketler and Owori, that’s a big swing. In their dual meet, Trey defeated all the NA Tigers. At Tri-States, Trey was behind 8 of them. That’s the potential for a massive swing as each Tiger he passes, not only gives him back a point, but pushes the others back one point each. And don’t forget, the SV 4-5 runners have been excellent in recent weeks. Alex Dixon and Christian Resch finished 18^th and 21^st at Tri-States, not far removed from the Tiger pack. They could hop in there and push them back a couple points.

The other big factor is, my favorite new term, the inflection point. Where are the dips in talent going to be? At Tri-States, there were just 2 places between Seth Ketler and NA #1 Dan McGoey and just 4 places between Owori and McGoey. At WPIALs, I think that gap is going to grow a bit more as you add in some top names from schools like Franklin Regional, Kiski, Fox Chapel, Hampton, Pitts CC, Norwin, etc.

But all that being said, I still picked the Tigers. They can survive an off day from one of their runners and still hold up strong. They have a freshman leading the charge, but they also have a slew of guys who were on a state championship team in 2014 and a state runner up team in 2015. All it takes is one step up day from somebody in that pack to lift them to new heights. I think it will be close, but I lean toward NA.

The third team spot has been penciled in, by me at least, for Mount Lebanon basically all year. That being said, they were missing usual #1 Bryce Brandenstein at Tr-States and that opened the door for an upset by Butler in the team standings 90-115. I assume Brandenstein will be back, but even if he is, Butler will be confident and hungry for that state birth. And just as hungry will be teams like Pitts Central Catholic (awesome top 4), Fox Chapel (intriguing 1-2 punch) and Canon-Mac (has pulled this sort of upset over Lebo before). A big day from any team could jump them ahead of Lebo in the standings even with Bryce back.

So basically, this team battle has it all.

Individually, there’s certainly a clear favorite in Mark Provenzo. Provenzo ran sub 16 on this course already this season, joining a pretty exclusive club. And Provenzo has yet to be bested by anyone within the AAA class this season in the WPIAL. However, you can make an interesting case for Butler’s Noah Beveridge after his big win at Tri-States over Casey Conboy of Baldwin. Beveridge has shown consistent, steady improvement this season and we already saw him take over a race at Coopers once this season. I’d put my money on Provenzo, but Beveridge has a chance to make things interesting.

Conboy will also have a chance to spring the upset. He hasn’t beat Provenzo yet, but he’s hung around better than anyone else this season. Tri-States may have just been an off day for him and he could potentially come right back after Beveridge at Coopers looking for revenge. Regardless of how it shapes out, I’d be surprised to see anyone else break into that top 3.

Of course there are guys who could do it. To me, it feels like there is one runner each year who sort of comes out of left field to break into the top 3-5 and carries the momentum through to states. Mike Kolor, Jake Susalla, Mark Provenzo come to mind as guys who made nice leaps into impressive WPIAL runs. This year, it seems like Sam Owori is a good pick after his recent successes at Foundation and Tri-States, but I also like Matt Busche of Franklin Regional as a sleeper. He trains with Provenzo and has made huge leaps since the start of the season. This guy is on a roll. There’s also Kiski’s Eric Kennedy who is a huge talent, especially on the track. As far as I know, this is one of the few times we’ve seen him make it to this point in the season completely healthy and strong. That could be trouble for the rest of the WPIAL.

This year also has a chance to be the year of the freshmen. There’s Dan McGoey of North Allegheny who has grabbed some headlines (Matt McGoey was district champ back in 2014), but we have also seen Christian Fitch of Fox Chapel and Zach Leachman of Mars put up some really impressive marks. Fitch had a fantastic race the last time he hit Coopers (3^rd behind Provenzo and Conboy only) and Leachman just torched a difficult Tri-States course (4^th overall). Throw in Patrick Anderson of Lebo and we are looking at four freshmen who all have top 20 potential.

Last thing I will say is keep an eye on Hamptons top couple guys. Maybe it’s just my imagination but Hampton always seems to have a great day at Coopers. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the surprises of the meet comes from Hampton.