by Jarrett Felix
Not as
big of a weekend as the previous two, but still plenty of results to influence
the rankings for this week. No honorable mentions this week unfortunately as I
was pretty comfortable with the way the list turned out. Sorry to those who
come to this post for the honorable mentions.
50. Sam Snodgrass, Jr South Fayette
(7 AA)
Really
starting to hit his stride after a quick performance at Slippery Rock this
weekend. He finished just behind teammate Aaron Pfeil who is a proven top 30
guy through the first couple meets. By the end of the season, I could Snodgrass
beating out his teammate at WPIALs/states so 50 may end up way too low.
Ironically, I believe he started the year at #50 as well.
49. Sean Rahill, Jr William Tennent
(1 AAA)
I
wanted to know that the Paul Short result was not a fluke before Rahill made
the list. Well, he actually topped his PS performance with a fast 3rd
place run at his home invite this weekend, defeating teammate Evan Hutton and
CRN’s Bryan Keller. If he keeps this up, he’ll be a state medalist in Hershey.
48. Brandon Hontz, Sr WC Rustin (1
AAA)
I don’t
get how I could only find spot #48 for Hontz. I think the kid is a big talent,
has great speed, and is leading his team to some inspired running. He was
second at Ches-monts and will get his first chance against a deep field when he
goes to Districts at Lehigh. That’s when we find out just how good this guy and
his team really are.
47.
Mark Brown, So Greensburg Salem (7 AA)
46.
Andrew Sullivan, Jr Hershey (3 AAA)
45. Ryan Thrush, Sr Brookville (9
A)
This
guy was the state champion in the 400 last spring. The 400! And now he’s one of
the best small school guys around. He won over Zach Wortman of Elk CC this past
weekend to keep his name in the mix with the best A guys.
44.
Matthew Scarpill, Sr CB South (1 AAA)
43. Donovan Myers, Sr Seneca (10 A)
Another
one of those top A guys, Donovan Myers crushed a loaded field at Harbor Creek
and ran in the low 16s. He was 9th at states last fall, a state
medalist as a sophomore and anchored the state championship AA 4x800m with a
1:54 carry this past spring. Donovan, Connor Walsh and Noah Curtin are among
the D10 A runners who are preparing to do battle at the upcoming district
championships at Buhl Park. The winner of that race could very well end up the favorite
to win states.
42. Stephen Paul, Sr LaSalle (12
AAA)
41. Shaun Bullock, Sr DT West (1
AAA)
40. Patrick James, Sr O’Hara (12
AAA)
These
three guys will likely have a big say in the team title race in November. Patrick
James had the best performance of the weekend in my opinion with his 3rd
place finish at DELCOs, running a very quick 16:09. Paul and James will go head
to head at PCLs in an exciting battle for the team crown. Bullock will be
waiting for Districts (a course that he runs well) for his next shot to advance
on the list.
39. Ben Littman, Sr Winchester
Thurston (7 A)
Winchester
Thurston is looking really good right now. They might have 3 of the best 10
guys in A. They’re kind of this year’s DT West of small schools in that
respect. Littman was 10th two years ago and is running really well
right now. He just won at the District course this past weekend in a A race
where WT took 1-2-3-4 without their best runner.
38. Ryan Campbell, Jr CR North (1
AAA)
CRN has
a knack for getting guys on the medal stand and, after finishing outside the
top 20 at PTXC, Campbell has stepped up as North’s #1 runner at each of the last
big invites, including a runner up finish at William Tennent this weekend. Last
year, Campbell’s best race came at states. If he duplicates that this year, he
will be a top 15 kind of guy.
37.
Matt D’Aquila, Sr Lower Merion (1 AAA)
36.
David Haines, Sr North Pocono (2 AA)
35. Evan Addison, Jr LaSalle (12
AAA)
34. Evan Hutton, Sr William Tennent
(1 AAA)
33. Gavin Inglis, Sr O’Hara (12
AAA)
32.
Jonah Powell, So Grove City (10 AA)
31. James Abrahams, Sr Haverford (1
AAA)
30.
Seth Slavin, Sr Pleasant Valley (11 AAA)
29. Joe
Cullen, Jr Wyomissing (3 AAA)
28. Avery Lederer, Jr Penncrest (1
AAA)
Lederer
continues to be a tough, gutsy performer. He’s mixed it up at the front of
every major invite he’s raced, but has come up just short of the title in each
one (besides his home invite which he won by a landslide over his teammate). A few
years back Penncrest had a junior named Chris Kazanjian who finished 20th
at states. I believe Chris is Penncrest’s only medalist in the past 10+ years
(he also medaled as a senior, placing 6th). Can Lederer add his name
to the list?
27. Isaac Kole, Sr Carlisle (3 AAA)
26. Aaron Pfeil, Sr South Fayette
(7 AA)
25.
Connor Walsh, Sr Cambridge Springs (10 A)
24.
Jared Giannascoli, Jr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)
23. Spencer Smucker, Jr WC
Henderson (1 AAA)
Smucker
is starting to look healthy and ran a terrific race at Manhattan to finish as
PA’s #3 runner. With plenty of time to recover before districts, can he get
back on the medal stand for a 3rd straight season? Vince McNally is
the only AAA 4 time state medalist in the past 10 graduating classes. There
have been 19 three-time medalists during the same span. Spencer Smucker and
Nate Henderson are the two guys who have a chance to add their name to the 3x
list at this year’s championship.
22. Casey Conboy, Sr Baldwin (7
AAA)
Conboy
has looked sharp in his last few races, edging out Lederer at Salesianum and
holding his own with Provenzo at Slippery Rock. Baldwin has not had a top 20
finisher at states in the past decade (the closest was Bobby Bishop as a
sophomore in 2010). Conboy is also ranked #2 among AAA WPIAL runners right now.
The WPIAL has put up a combined 16 medalists over the past 3 seasons.
21.
Colton Cassell, Sr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)
20.
Nick Feffer, Sr State College (6 AAA)
19. Ben
Bumgarner, Sr Waynesburg (7 AA)
18.
Alex Tomasko, Sr Mechanicsburg (3 AAA)
17.
Tristan Forsythe, Jr Winchester Thurston (7 A)
16.
Liam Conway, Jr Owen J. Roberts (1 AAA)
15.
Isaac Davis, Jr Jersey Shore (4 AA)
14.
Morgan Cupp, Jr Mechanicsburg (3 AAA)
13.
Kyler Shea, Sr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)
12. Connor McMenamin, Sr Souderton
(1 AAA)
In
major 5ks this year, McMenamin has only been bested by Ryan James and the Affolders
from PA. He has built a house under 16 minutes in major invitationals, is
running course records in dual meets and his helped to improve Souderton’s
overall team, bringing together a potent top three. The focus has been on the talented
juniors in District One, but I think it’s time to start thinking about
McMenamin as the potential district champ out of D1.
11.
Liam Galligan, Sr Springfield (1 AAA)
10. Mark Provenzo, Sr Franklin
Regional (7 AAA)
9. Zach
Skolnekovich, Sr Quaker Valley (7 AA)
8. Nick Dahl, Sr GFS (Independent)
7. Josh Hoey, Jr Bishop Shanahan (1
AAA)
Hard to
know exactly what to do with either guy. Obviously, based on their Paul Short
and Carlisle results, they’ve got a ton of ability to finish near the front of
the field so I won’t read too much into one poor race. However, I’d definitely
like to see Dahl do some more racing on hilly courses that don’t favor his
track speed as much. I’m hoping he drops an awesome time at Belmont for Independent
states. As for Josh, it sounded like he’s sort of looking past XC towards track
in his most recent interview. Maybe that means he won’t have the same kind of
season he did last year. On the other hand, he won Ches-monts with a big kick
just two days after Manhattan (for the second straight year) and is still a
15:30s guy in 2016 (and a Penn Relays Mile champ). We won’t see him race again
until districts (which is a long way off) so there is plenty of time for him to
crank things up a notch.
6. Rusty Kujdych, Jr Neshaminy (1
AAA)
5. Ryan James, Sr O’Hara (12 AAA)
Since
their hard fought loss to Galligan at Briarwood, both of these guys have been
on absolute tear. Ryan James’s 15:44 at DELCOs was very impressive and I like
the way he runs the Hershey course. He has a high ceiling come states.
Meanwhile Kujdych is the top runner from District One on the list. The top
District One runner at states the past 10 seasons? 1st, 1st,
1st, 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st,
1st, 1st, 1st
4. Zach
Lefever, Sr Ephrata (3 AAA)
3. Sam Affolder, So Carlisle (3
AAA)
Affolder’s
time at Manhattan was pretty strong and put him ahead of some really strong PA
runners (like Chris Aldrich, a Foot Locker finalist). I’m a little nervous
about projecting him as a top 3 guy in the state considering he’s only a
sophomore, but he’s done nothing this year to prove he isn’t incredibly
deserving of this spot. I want to see him race Lefever though as I feel like
that could potentially be a good match up.
2. Nate
Henderson, Sr JP McCaskey (3 AAA)
1. Noah Affolder, Sr Carlisle (3
AAA)
You
have to appreciate Noah’s dominance this season. He’s seemed kind of bored so
far this season with the way he’s walked away from top notch fields at McQuaid
and Manhattan. The only possible concern I have for him is the fact that he
will apparently be getting his wisdom teeth out mid-season (I think he said just
after Mid Penns). Probably won’t matter and I’m sure they’ve planned this out
well.
1. CR North (25% Chance of Winning the Title)
ReplyDeleteYou might be thinking, big shock (sarcasm) that ForrestCRN (it's in the freaking name) is picking his school as the best team in the state. But hear me out a moment. First we saw Carlisle, DT West, and LaSalle heat up on a 4k course that benefits the speed of runners like Addison and Kole. I think if North is at this race with Earley and Keller's speed CR North scores as low as 250 points. They are always ready to peak, and i believe that Keller will beat both Tennent runners (Rahill and Hutton) at districts and Campell will run about 15:30. Campbell looked so strong and smooth in that race video at the finish. I think this team averages at worst 15:56 at districts and at best 15:50. Their team average from Tennent was 8 seconds faster than CB West last year who ran an average of 16:35 at States. At the beginning of the season I said if CR North runs an average between 16:24-27 at states they will have the strongest shot of winning. (I'm with Etrain on Ryan Campbell... I currently have him placing 14th overall at States, but no other medalists on this team). The biggest downfall is as Etrain and others have pointed out that their 6-8 development has not been nearly as strong as i expected and that 45 second gap really hurts them in a tie breaker (especially against LaSalle or DTW).
2. Carlisle (20% Chance)
You have got to love the top 3 on this team. The issue is i also really, really love the top 3 of Lower Dauphin and O'Hara. Isaac Kole did not run as well as I had expected this weekend, but if he bounces back and is top 20 at states (I currently have him at 22nd taking home 9 team points). I think District 3 championships and Mid-Penns will give us a really great chance to see how their 3-6 runners will be matching up against PA runners. All of this said they have defeated DT West twice now by just under 10 points at big invitationals and their front runners will be greatly rewarded with low team points at the state meet.
3. Cardinal O'Hara (20% Chance)
Like I said, I really like top 3's. This team reminds me so much of CR North from 2012 with Wilson, Zingarini, and Emery up front all in the top 26. Right now I have O'Hara's boys at 3, 23, and 30, but I have a bad feeling in my gut that these spots are too low for these runners. I can't wait for the District 12 meet to see how O'Hara's 2-3 match up against LaSalle's Addison. Billy Donovan is the key piece to this team in my opinion. He was 3rd on their team last year and ran a clutch 17:08. If he dips near 17 minutes again this team's chances raise to about 35%. Watch out for him.
Pshh. Big shock that Forrest is picking his school as the best team in the state.
Delete4. DT West (20%)
ReplyDeleteYes, 3 teams are ranked with 20%. DT West looked really great though. I'm loving the pack mentality, but they will need to tighten it to about 20 seconds if this team is going to win a title.... that OR Ryan Barton steps up like we know he can. Barton had such a big sophomore campaign, but it seems he has been unable to reach that form again. If he begins to run with their top 2 guys again this team sheds 10-20 team points and they are taking this state title.
5. LaSalle (10%)
I was just looking over LaSalle's race at Foundation and holy cow they looked unbeatable in that race. They crushed O'Hara even if you say Donovan and James a bit higher the best I can really get O'Hara down to points wise is 131 to Lasalle's 101 (had to add 5 points because James would have been ahead of Addison and the rest of that top 5 as well). 30 points ahead of O'Hara?!? We have to remember though that everyone in this race gets counted for team points, which really hurts O'Hara's back two, but still, if LaSalle has a type of race they did at Foundation they will be difficult to beat. They had a team average of 16:53 at Foundation, but I think it will take at least a 16:25 average (obviously will be much lower for Carlisle if Affolder runs hard, which Henderson will make him) to win this thing, and I am having a hard time imagining this squad or O'Hara dropping 30 seconds as a team over the course of the season, but it is possible folks.
6. Lower Dauphin (5%)
Like I said, I love top 3's and as of right now LD's top 3 for Etrain are all in the top 25. I have them taking 10th, 16th, and 24th for 4, 7, and 11 team points. That might be a bit low as well. I think we could see all of these guys in the top 17 at best. Cannot wait to see them match up against Issac Kole and Carlisle at Districts. I'll be honest I'm having trouble placing their 4-5 runners right now, which is a fault of my own and means that this team is probably better than I have placed here.
I don't know if it's that teams in the east have a lot more chances to run on fast courses skewing bias, that the D7 AAA guys just haven't raced that hard/frequently, that there's an eastern PA bent due to location of writers or some combo of all three but I'd be willing to bet a large sum that there will be more than TWO guys from D7 AAA in the final top 50 based on recent history. I know every district has to have a down year but...
ReplyDeleteFor the record, I agree with this completely. For me personally, I just have little to no feel about which D7 guys are best right now. I need to see more western racing from the top guys head to head. I particularly want to see Seneca Valley race one more time. Anyone have dual meet results they can share from the west?
DeleteI also am in agreement hear. This is one of the reasons I didn't put out a top 10 this week, because I am so unsure on the best ways in which I can rank Mount Lebanon, Seneca Valley, and North Allegheny right now and to whom can they best be ranked against? WPIAL's is going to be an incredible race though, and in my opinion probably the best district meet to watch this season... although the Affolder (post surgery) vs Henderson and the 4 qualifying teams from district three might be the bigger headline here... and for very good reason).
DeleteCentral League championships should be very fast as we get to see Galligan racing again for the first time in 3? to 4 weeks. He opened very well at Briarwood when taking down James [ET#5] and Kujdych [ET #6]. Without him racing his health status is unclear, but I think it is fairly safe to say he will take the victory here. Close behind, however should be Abrahams and Lederer battling again after DELCO's last weekend when Lederer beat Abrahams. It is 1-1 between the two of them in big invitationals. I think there is a very likely chance we will see the two of them battle three more times before the season is out.
And then we get to watch just how good Carlos Shultz has gotten over the past two weeks. If the day is quick at Lehigh in two weekends I do not down he will break 15:50 which is a heck of an accomplishment, and frankly i hope he goes 15:45 and he might well be capable. That began said he will have a tough battle with Matthew D'Aquila who has been fairly quiet this season, but has proven his chops on the track. His Lower Marion squad will be looking to repeat as champions this year, but Conestoga is young and may present a tough challenge.
Now, McGoey from NA did not run in the tri-meet against NA (sick), and SV went 1-2-3. Would he have made a difference when they have such a tight pack? Not sure he would have been able to break up SV's top 3 as they ran 16:32, 16:34, 16:35.
DeleteNA and Seneca Valley will square off in a week at Tri States. Lebo only ran their girls last year, not sure if they'll do the same this time around. Also should get to see an interesting Conboy vs. Beveridge battle up front at that meet.
DeleteBack to NA and SV, I've got a little inside info on their recent tri meet with Hampton. These aren't official results/times, but they're still fairly accurate.
Owori (SV)- 16:32
Razanauskas (SV)- 16:34
Ketler (SV)- 16:35
Lutz (NA)- 16:37
Greco (NA)- 16:45
Case (HAM)- 16:54
Smith (NA)- 16:56
Phillips (NA)- 16:56
Resch (SV)- 17:01
Hartigan (NA)- 17:04
Dixon (SV)- 17:07
Robinson (NA)- 17:09
Turkovich (NA)- 17:10
Cafaro (HAM)- 17:12
My biggest takeaway is that NA finally had some guys run under 17. They are really gonna need some frontrunners to make the noise they usually do. It’s even more impressive that it came at Hartwood Acres. For reference, I’ve only ever heard of 1 other guy (Brian Shields) go sub-17 in the past 4 seasons or so. Could be more, but just saying the course is no joke.
Also, really impressed with SV’s 4-5. We now know that they at least have potential at those spots to compete with the stellar pack of NA. WPIALs is gonna be a showdown.
Wish more top D7 guys would race Carlisle Invite. It's not that bad a drive from there and would give us a chance to see how they stack up.
Delete