District Week Previews: District Twelve

by Jarrett Felix

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District 12 Championships 10/27

A (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

Historically, this district has belonged to Masterman. They rolled through the championships a year ago behind Joe Previdi, the district champion. Although they graduated some of that core, they return enough pieces to give me confidence their dominance is not finished. I’m not predicting quite a 1-5 sweep like last year, but I do think they can put this one away with under 30 points.

Individually, however, the title could be up for grabs. At the public league champs, Daniel Bici of Masterman was 3^rd overall and clearly #1 in A (46 seconds ahead of Josue Marcelin of Paul Robeson). However, at the Catholic League champs, speedster Kamil Jihad ran within 15 seconds of Bici. It’s possible that the speedster (1:52 800 runner as a sophomore last year) could hang around and throw down a kick to upset Bici on championship day. It will be a classic matchup of strength and speed on a hilly course that will make for an honest fight.

Now there are two spots and 10 individuals up for grabs so there should be plenty of intrigue on race day beyond Masterman and Jihad. I’ve got Paul Robeson taking the #2 spot behind a very talented top 3 that includes the Marcelins and Anthony Clement. Some individuals who could make noise include Joey Lounsberry of Bishop McDevitt and Camilo Ruiz, a sophomore from Science and Leadership.

AA (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

At the front of this field, we have some familiar jerseys. The boys from Bonner have had a strangle hold on the District 12 AA title in recent years and in 2016 Anthony Harper and Dave Whitfield look like they should help keep at least one gold in house. Harper had an excellent Foundation Invite performance and Whitfield, already a solid XC runner, has had one of the most consistent progressions in the district, recently culminating with a 14^th place finish at PCLs.

However, the team title appears much more up for grabs. Despite their 1-2 punch, Bonner had no one else in the top 60 finishers at PCLs. The front running advantage that helped them topple Conwell-Egan and Lansdale Catholic will be neutralized in a smaller, less talented field out front. So the question becomes, can Conwell-Egan and Lansdale Catholic use that tighter spread to slip ahead of Bonner (Egan had 5 in front of Bonner’s 3 at PCLs, LC had five in before their five)? Or will Bonner’s pack step up to fill in behind a likely 1-2 finish from their top two? It’s going to be tough for any other team to topple Bonner when they are essentially racing 5 on 3.

I picked against Bonner in this one because I’m a little nervous about their spread, but I could definitely see them advancing. I could also see one of the Philly public schools like Motivation breaking into the mix. Ultimately, I went with Conwell-Egan and then Lansdale Catholic so hopefully that provides a little motivation (if you will excuse the pun) for any of the other schools reading this to take care of business.

Individually, I mentioned Harper and Whitfield at the top and I expect a 1-2 finish out of them. Filling in some of the other 10 spots, watching for Steven Lebron of Creative & Performing as well as teammate Jeremy Fincham.

AAA (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

Speaking of motivation, I’m interested to see what kind of motivation O’Hara and LaSalle have at the district championships this weekend. These two schools faced off for a much more coveted title, the PCL championship, this past weekend and fought tooth and nail for the victory. Ultimately, LaSalle pulled out a narrow win by just 2 points. This week, I don’t think either cares much about the title, they would just like to make sure they qualify for states, which neither should have too much trouble doing. These teams will both be actively involved in my state championship preview, so I won’t touch too much on them here when the drama is a lot lower, but I will make a couple quick points.

First, you have to like what you are seeing from O’Hara. Patrick James is looking a little bit more consistent, Ryan James could be a top 3 guy in the state and the 4-5 guys are coming on strong. Ryan James’s front running advantage should be more beneficial at states with more talent out front, but to be fair, LaSalle’s tight spread would also get some help at a larger meet. If O’Hara is going to jump LaSalle in two weeks they will need to 1) really take advantage of that top 3 and 2) keep things tight with LaSalle’s pack.

On the flip side, LaSalle continues to showcase an absolute army of bodies. They have so much talent on that roster its impressive. However, this team has had quality packs before. What they will need to win states is front running. Well, that front running did work at PCLs as Evan Addison took 2^nd overall and Stephen Paul finished 4^th. For all the talk about depth, those two match-ups against Inglis and Patrick James decided the championship. I’m also very excited to see the first of LaSalle’s unreal freshman duo in the varsity line up. Vincent Twomey showed up big time in his debut and I think there is a chance we see Ethan Maher next week as well (he won the freshman race by 41 seconds in 17:18, a time that would have been 13^th in the varsity race without factoring in the lack of competition).

Both teams should still have championship aspirations for Hershey. But that likely means they will try and coast as best as possible in this one.

Interestingly, there’s a chance the PCL produces three teams for the state championship this year. No need to double check the “2 Teams” part of the above, it’s accurate. But St. Joe’s Prep would qualify for states as a team if they have at least five runners who qualify through the individual selection process. Basically, if you throw out O’Hara and LaSalle, St. Joe’s needs at least 5 of the top 10. It’s possible, but it’s going to be hard. There’s not a lot of wiggle room here.

If you look at PCLs, Sean Brown (excellent runner, real chance at top 50 at states) and the Bonner boys (AA) were the only non O’Hara-LaSalle runners in the top 15. St. Joe’s Prep had the next 4 spots, 2 runners from Wood and Father Judge, and then two more Prep guys. So if only the AAA PCL schools were in the district, SJP would be projected six state qualifiers. But there will be plenty of public school kids in the mix, particularly the duo from Central of Skylar Scarfidi and Chris Carson. I’d be surprised to see either of those guys outside the top 20 overall.

I feel the big drama in this one will come from the St. Joe’s Prep squad rather than the O’Hara-LaSalle match up (unless these teams secretly care more about a district title than I think they do). So keep an eye on the SJP pack in the results, do some counting and see where it gets you.

One more quick thing that I couldn’t resist mentioning. LaSalle, by my count, had 16 guys under 18 minutes at Belmont between the three PCL races. In total, the non-O’Hara schools at PCLs had 5 and there were just two in the Philly Public race held on the same course. In other words, it’s not outlandish to think LaSalle could have had a JV squad qualify for states at the district meet were they allowed to do such a thing.