PA HS XC Top 50: Week Seven

So this is the updated Top 50 XC Rankings from this week. It’s worth noting that the mid-week action isn’t really included in these results as I haven’t had time to deep dive into that just yet. Also, I think this may be the last Pre-States XC Top 50. Next week will be district by district predictions for all classifications and then, of course, we have state championship week.

For those of you who checked out the PA HS XC List on our brand new snap chat account (TheRealEtrain11), there are a few tiny changes that I made in between the snap and the posting.

A couple other quick thoughts from looking at the mid-week results that I’ll squeeze in here. First, a lot of guys were missing from their teams this weekend and that sets up a wild districts week. Particularly in District 3. Hempfield ran without a couple top seven guys it appears (most notably Coby Mattes) and as a result they were upset by Manheim Central at LLs. Cumberland Valley ran without a couple top 7 guys of their own at Mid-Penns, but their depth was able to cover it. Mechanicsburg was missing a top 5 guy as well that could have potentially been worth some 50 points in the results. Twin Valley ran without their #1 Matt Coakley at leagues (and still won with a terrific pack, watch out District 3). With all this randomness potentially in play, there are suddenly a ton of teams with state qualifying potential in that district. I’ll talk more about that in my preview coming next week, but this looks really fun.

By the way, Winchester Thurston, no strangers to the injury bug, ran without Tristan Forsythe for the second straight meet and also didn’t have Shaun Hay in the line-up. Hopefully there are no serious injuries here and we see everyone back at WPIALs. Mercyhurst Prep picked up a big win in the team competition that should boost their confidence. They get Seneca at districts.

Tri-States will be huge today for the AAA WPIAL. I still have almost no feel for this thing. There’s 10-15 names that I have in a bubble tier just outside this list that I just want to see a little more from. I expect some of that tier will breakout and become top 50 guys at states. Plus, the team battle is going to be fun with so much history on the line.

But enough of that, let’s talk individual rankings.

50. Eric Kennedy, Sr Kiski (7 AAA)

49. Noah Beveridge, Jr Butler (7 AAA)

Kennedy and Beveridge get these spots as a few opened up due to injury this week. I think I oversold Beveridge’s run from a couple weeks ago at Coopers so he gets Galligan’s vacated spot. I want to see a bit more of both of these guys, but the WPIAL deserves a couple more spots on this list. Watch for Matt Busche of Franklin Regional as another contender within this tier.

48. Sean Rahill, Jr William Tennent (1 AAA)

47. Brandon Hontz, Sr WC Rustin (1 AAA)

46. Matthew Scarpill, Sr CB South (1 AAA)

45. Ryan Thrush, Sr Brookville (9 A)

44. Donovan Myers, Sr Seneca (10 A)

43. Stephen Paul, Sr LaSalle (12 AAA)

42. Shaun Bullock, Sr DT West (1 AAA)

41. Patrick James, Sr O’Hara (12 AAA)

40. Ben Littman, Sr Winchester Thurston (7 A)

If Tristan Forsythe is off his game at all due to injury, Littman may suddenly become the A state title favorite. He’s had a terrific season and just beat out Noah Curtin, last year’s state runner-up. Individually, this classification looks pretty wide open right now and Littman is just as good as anybody else out there.

39. Sam Snodgrass, Jr South Fayette (7 AA)

38. Ryan Campbell, Jr CR North (1 AAA)

37. David Haines, Sr North Pocono (2 AA)

36. Evan Addison, Jr LaSalle (12 AAA)

35. Evan Hutton, Sr William Tennent (1 AAA)

34. Gavin Inglis, Sr O’Hara (12 AAA)

33. Avery Lederer, Jr Penncrest (1 AAA)

32. Connor Walsh, Sr Cambridge Springs (10 A)

31. Joe Cullen, Jr Wyomissing (3 AA)

30. Seth Slavin, Sr Pleasant Valley (11 AAA)

Slavin had a really impressive runaway victory at his league meet. I’m starting to get a feeling this guy is going to come on like a rocket over the final weeks of the season. District 11 has done pretty well for itself in recent years as well with at least one medalist every year since the move to 3 classifications.

Side note: Parkland looked pretty good at this league meet as well. Dominated the team competition against some teams that hung fairly close at Paul Short. Haven’t deep dived into that meet yet, but don’t be surprised if Parkland becomes the team many were projecting them to be in the pre-season down the stretch.

29. Matthew D’Aquila, Sr Lower Merion (1 AAA)

28. Jonah Powell, So Grove City (10 AA)

27. James Abrahams, Sr Haverford (1 AAA)

It’s worth noting that the Central League times were pretty strong. If you look back, PA great Andrew Marston (shameless plug, we just interviewed him here on the site), ran 16:09 in 2014 before running 15:40 at Hershey and sub 15:20 at Lehigh. He ran 16:02 his junior season when he finished 9^th at states. Abrahams ran 16:01 for the win this weekend while D’Aquila and Lederer both also dipped under 16:10. It’s not quite Furcht and Berman from 2008 (15:27s), but it was still a monster three way battle.

It’s been a very fast year for the state of Pennsylvania.

26. Aaron Pfeil, Sr South Fayette (7 AA)

25. Jared Giannascoli, Jr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)

24. Andrew Sullivan, Jr Hershey (3 AAA)

Sullivan has consistently improved each week this season in what I believe is his first year of XC. At this rate, he’s going to find a way to sneak into the state medals at states. The Mid-Penn is loaded with talent, which I think will benefit all parties involved at states. In a meet with so many fast runners, it’s nice to have a few familiar faces to chase.

23. Spencer Smucker, Jr WC Henderson (1 AAA)

22. Casey Conboy, Sr Baldwin (7 AAA)

21. Colton Cassell, Sr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)

20. Isaac Kole, Sr Carlisle (3 AAA)

16 flat at Big Spring is pretty quick and Kole bested a lot of the top names on this list. That performance shows us that on Kole’s best day, he could challenge for a top 10 individual spot in the state. Last year, DT West’s big 3 scored a total of 9 team points. Carlisle may top that this year.

19. Kyler Shea, Sr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)

18. Tristan Forsythe, Jr Winchester Thurston (7 A)

17. Liam Conway, Jr Owen J Roberts (1 AAA)

16. Alex Tomasko, Sr Mechanicsburg (3 AAA)

15. Morgan Cupp, Jr Mechanicsburg (3 AAA)

14. Nick Feffer, Sr State College (6 AAA)

13. Isaac Davis, Jr Jersey Short (4 AA)

12. Ben Bumgarner, Sr Waynesburg Central (7 AA)

I’ve been very impressed with how Ben has run this year. He and Isaac Davis certainly aren’t the guys expected to be knocking on the door of the top 10 at this point in the season, but when you roll at every meet you go to, it’s hard to knock you down. Bumgarner is running times that match up very well with some WPIAL greats and, most importantly, he’s winning. Until he loses, I’m just going to keep jumping him up the list. We get Bumgarner vs. Skolnekovich at WPIALs. That’s going to be awesome.

11. Connor McMenamin, Sr Souderton (1 AAA)

10. Nick Dahl, Sr GFS (Independent)

9. Josh Hoey, Jr Bishop Shanahan (1 AAA)

8. Mark Provenzo, Sr Franklin Regional (7 AAA)

7. Zach Skolnekovich, Sr Quaker Valley (7 AA)

6. Rusty Kujdych, Jr Neshaminy (1 AAA)

5. Ryan James, Sr O’Hara (12 AAA)

4. Zach Lefever, Sr Ephrata (3 AAA)

3. Sam Affolder, So Carlisle (3 AAA)

He will, naturally, be overshadowed by the huge success of his brother, but Sam has accepted all challengers faced this season. Sub 15:20 at Carlisle. Sub 12:40 at Manhattan. Sub 16 at Big Spring. I can’t believe we have had two straight seasons with sophomores this talented. Heck, I’m not even ready to rule out an Affolder 1-2 at states. We’ve had some talented teammates who have come close in the past (the Hoeys 2-3 last year, the North Hills monster, Miles and Bernitt, Furcht and Berman, etc.), but nobody has been able to pull it off at Hershey. Could the Affolders do it in their Hershey debut?

2. Nathan Henderson, Sr JP McCaskey (3 AAA)

Henderson has really impressed me this season. Assuming he can hold his peak/re-peak effectively, it’s reasonable to start thinking about his Footlocker potential. I won’t pretend to know the landscape well outside of PA, but Henderson could potentially even scare an All-American spot. I know Noah Affolder is a runaway favorite for the state title, but I think Henderson should at least make things interesting. I’m interested to see how hard these two decide to run at districts.

1. Noah Affolder, Sr Carlisle (3 AAA)

Nothing new here. I wonder if there’s ever been a guy in the history of the list who has been #1 the whole season. I’m guessing no because I usually try pretty hard to keep things interesting. But Noah hasn’t given me that chance so far this year. He’ll be the favorite in at least his next three races (Districts, States, Regionals), possibly his next four (nationals). Can he continue to stay on top?

The answer, for now at least, appears to be yes.