2017 State Predictions: AA 4x800m

AA 4x800m

A year ago, a team from Seneca out in District 10 rolled through the state championship en route to the AA 4x8 state title. The squad, which runs in the smallest division during cross, featured 4 juniors who would all be back to defend their title and chase the state meet record a year later. Now, back and better than ever, the Seneca boys are ready to pursue Lewisburg’s 7:44.44 time set back in 2004. At that time, Lewisburg was also the defending champs in AA. It’s also true that 2010’s Quaker Valley, who ran 7:46.46 for the 2^nd fastest AA time in meet history, was a defending champion. The #3 fastest time in AA meet history? How about Seneca last year.

What makes Seneca so dynamic is there top three runners. The Myers twins, Phoenix and Donovan, have been top tier distance runners since their freshman season and last year carried the baton around the track in 1:56 and 1:53. Adam Hanes is also a powerhouse with blazing quarter speed and a 1:55 split to his name already this spring. This year’s version of the relay, featuring Jake Schneider as the #4 man, has already popped a 7:49 season best prior to the state meet. Only one other squad in the state has been remotely close to them and nobody else comes in seeded faster than 8:06 based on district times. This seems like a lock, right?

Not so fast. The boys from Wyomissing played their cards close to the vest at districts as star Joe Cullen didn’t race on the team’s 4x8. As a result, Wyomissing finished 2^nd to a very good Trinity team. However, it can’t be forgotten that Wyomissing has run 7:54 this year with a big margin of victory. And they ran 7:54 last year as the runner-up squad behind Seneca. After a slower than expected performance at their district meet ironically enough.

With things turned up a notch at states, I think Wyomissing will go after this relay and make Seneca work for the title. It may be the perfect match up to bring out the best in both schools and potentially start off the day with that 7:44 meet record crumbling down.

Both squads match up pretty nicely. Wyomissing has their own speedster to match Hanes in Austin Keim and Joe Cullen can give Donovan Myers a great run for his money. The key will likely be Phoenix Myers who I’m not sure Wyomissing has a piece to match up. The difference for the record, however, will likely be Jake Schneider. Remember, Seneca ran 7:51.0 last year with a 2:04 split in there. If Schneider can breakthrough and get under 2 minutes, the Seneca Boys are already within spitting distance of the record purely based on last year’s performance.

Once again, I find myself talking about a two horse race in AA. I can’t help it. These match ups are just really exciting to look at. But there are other teams in this race! Warrior Run, medal winners in 2016, are back and ready to roll. They won a hotly contested District 4 championship in 8:06 by a nose over Mifflinburg. I believe Mifflinburg was in AAA a year ago, but a move down to the AA class could do them wonders. They’ve actually defeated Warrior Run already this year with a sub 2 anchor at Lock Haven (8:08). In total District 4 has 5 of the top 7 seeds heading into the championship so it’s a safe bet that we see a couple in the finals.

That being said, the AA 4x8 is usually a tricky one to predict. A lot of times the performances at district championships aren’t truly indicative of a team’s potential, depending on what level of competition they get. For example, Elk County Catholic in District 9 has some real upside. They’ve had a sub 2 split as well (also from Lock Haven ironically), they were the 2^nd best team in XC for class A and they have a history of showing up when it counts. I also am keeping an eye on Holy Redeemer from District 2. They’ve shown some real promise and have a ton of talent, as evidenced by their state qualifying performance over Berwick in XC. District 2 is consistently one of the best small districts in Cross Country so it’s a dangerous game to overlook them. Just remember back to Lakeland from year’s past if you need further evidence.

The WPIAL gets 5 state automatic state qualifying spots for a reason. Sure, they didn’t post the fastest times in the world at their district meet, but they had 3 finals qualifiers last year and the first team out. The top squad this year was Freeport, a loaded squad with an awesome anchor in Rob Reichenbaugh. Sewickley Academy is also a great story and enters as the #12 seed overall. They have produced some amazing XC squads in recent years, but how will they handle the shorter relay on the track?

Let’s move on to the qualifiers.

Autos:

Mifflinburg, Warrior Run, Wyomissing, Holy Redeemer

Seneca, Trinity, Freeport, Central Cambria

At Large

Elk CC, Notre Dame GP, Sewickley, Mt Carmel

Now as we look to the finals, I’ve already made it clear that my top two are Seneca and Wyomissing. But I do want to mention a couple teams that have been picking up momentum. I’m very high on Trinity. This is an excellent program that is always peaking at the right time. They should be feeling confident after a big district win and I think they could be dangerous in the hunt for a top 3 spot. I am also a big fan of what I’ve seen from Central Cambria, particularly Mike Walwro. If he pops a big anchor carry, Central Cambria could fly up the standings on the last two laps.

8. Mt Carmel 8:08.63

7. Warrior Run 8:07.32

6. Central Cambria 8:06.94

5. Freeport 8:04.73

4. Mifflinburg 8:04.11

3. Trinity 8:03.55

2. Wyomissing 7:48.00

1. Seneca 7:46.57

Ultimately, this just feels like Seneca’s year. It’s killing me that I’m still upsetless through four prediction posts.