2017 State Preview: AAA 4x800m

AAA 4x800m

Central Bucks West has become one of the best 4x8 programs in the state. Over the previous two seasons, the West boys have taken down two silvers at districts as well as a 4^th and 3^rd place finish at states. This year, they finally got the chance to be district champions, running away with the title by almost five full seconds. Now their focus turns to states where they will hope to repeat the feat.

Their task got a little bit easier when news broke that the defending indoor state champions from Carlisle would be scratching the relay alongside District 3 runner-up Milton Hershey. Older fans may remember CB West’s 2010 title hopefuls were upended by another rising star in District 3, Cedar Crest. Without Carlisle, a likely pick for most to win, CB West becomes the clear favorite and arguably the biggest of the weekend on the distance side. But this squad, featuring two juniors and a sophomore, still has something to prove about their readiness for this stage.

Lurking in the shadows is a familiar foe: Pennridge. This squad was a non-factor in the title talks for 90 percent of the season before dropping a fast time at leagues and then earning a silver medal at districts in 7:53. Now the school is putting a lot of stock in this squad as they try and make a run at the team title. Over the past few seasons, Pennridge has been no joke. In 2012, they were indoor state champions, qualified for the COA and finished 3^rd at Shippensburg. In 2014, they were district champs, clocked a 7:45 best and finished 5^th at states. In 2015, they were a strong, mid pack team within District One before finding their groove at the perfect time and clocking a 7:40.56 for 2^nd at states (one of the top 15 or so times in state history). And then last year, they surged to a district championship before overcoming an injury to their best runner, Tucker Desko, and still finding a way to take 4^th at states. Pennridge has found a way to defeat CB West each of the past two seasons at some point or another. They don’t have a big win over their rivals yet in 2017.

Making the championship picture a bit more crowded is the emergence of the WPIAL as title contenders. The #2, #3 and #6 seeds belong to western squads in Seneca Valley, Greensburg Salem and Franklin Regional. The boys from SV have had a terrific year, first doing the impossible and defeating North Allegheny in Cross Country, and now running a 7:52.07 to defeat a very capable Greensburg Salem squad for the district title. Greensburg Salem is much more of a darkhorse team. They are far from a traditional power and actually compete in AA during cross. This school had a breakthrough during XC, but struggled at the state meet. The story will be redemption on race day as they try to prove that they not only can handle the big stage, but also can top their early season 7:51 mark. A WPIAL school hasn’t won the AAA 4x800 at states since 2001 when Butler threw down a 7:40.22.

Even without their top 2 programs, District 3 is still sending 5 sub 8 squads to states. Leading the way is a surprise Ephrata team that dropped a 7:56.17 at their district meet. They have a top flight two miler in Zach Lefever on the roster, but a 3200-4x8 double is not an easy task. Ephrata also prominently features a strong freshman in Alex Shue who has clocked multiple 1:58s this year. Cumberland Valley and Lower Dauphin have been two of my squads to watch this season, particularly CV who was state finalists in 2016 and state champions in 2012.

I would say don’t sleep on some of the small district teams. I’m a huge Williamsport fan. They can run under 8 minutes in the 4x8 and have a super star anchor leg in Tristan Connor. I picked them to make the finals last year and they came up short, but another year stronger and hungrier, they could advance. Parkland also has a really capable squad. Top tier miler Sam Morgan, 800 qualifier Jacob Ringer and Riley Williamson can all be potential sub 2 legs on race day. Similar to Wiliamsport, this school was here a year ago and struggled to advance. Let’s see if they learned anything from last time around. Finally, you have to mention LaSalle, a powerhouse who medaled in this event a year ago. If they choose to stack their team, they’ve got an excellent foursome. However, I’m not convinced Evan Addison will be featured on this relay. He’s got big potential individually and it make more sense to keep him fresh for the 1600.

And of course, there’s State College. The 2014 and 2016 state champions. But we will get to them.

So let’s talk qualifiers. Here are my picks to make it to the finals:

Big Qs (Top 4 in each heat)

Seneca Valley, Pennsbury, State College, Greensburg Salem

CB West, Pennridge, North Penn, Cumberland Valley

Little qs (Next 4 fastest)

Abington, Williamsport, Lower Dauphin, Penn Wood

I think these prelims could end up being quite fast. Last year it only took 8 flat to make the final (Abington snuck in with the last spot), but the District 3 teams and the District 7 teams are offering a much deeper group of talent this time around. I also feel like some of the small district schools are very capable. I think the fastest prelims we ever saw came back in 2010 when it took 7:52.58 to make the finals. I don’t think we will be quite there, but that year we had a similar variety of talent across the state in this relay (although we were probably deeper).

Toughest omissions here were North Allegheny (state medalists a year ago with a lot of returners), Franklin Regional (dynamite anchor in Matt Busche) and Haverford (their own great anchor leg to help lead them). If LaSalle ends up going in on the relay, they will look like an obvious miss as well.

I’m nervous about Greensburg Salem. If they can make it through the prelim, I think they will excel in the final, but they haven’t really faced a trials/finals situation like this and they are definitely on the inexperienced side. The good news is they have a balanced squad which should hopefully keep them in position at the front throughout. Lower Dauphin is definitely a tricky pick considering they were just 7^th at districts, but I believe in this squad and will ride for them as long as I can.

 Abington is kind of a classic Jekyll and Hyde team. One minute they are barely sneaking into the state final, the next they are second at states. They could really go either way on race day, but there’s a lot of talent and experience there that’s hard to bet against.

And as we look to the final and my medal picks, it really comes down to those top flight programs. If you look at the finalists I have on my list, the 2016, 2015, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2008 and 2007 state championship schools are all on there. In fact, over half of the finalists have won either an indoor or outdoor state championship in the past 10 years.

The top 5 from states a year ago was State College, Abington, CB West, Pennridge and North Penn. I think it’s quite possible those are the top 5 schools yet again. It’s pretty crazy to think about.

State College has been a powerhouse in this event, running 7:41 or faster each of the past 3 seasons. They’ve medaled in this event every year dating back to 2012. They have arguably the best anchor in the field in Nick Feffer who has run 1:53 from scratch and 1:52 on a relay split. Owen Wing is an experienced lead off leg and Joey Feffer has continued to improve on his first year on the relay. I’m always a fan of this program and the times they have thrown down in recent years (most notably their crazy title defense in 2015) have always impressed me. But I’m leaning away from these guys for whatever reason in 2017. I think this may finally be the year that another program bumps them out from a top spot.

Pennridge is a team that I’ve thought about a lot. I like the fact that they have two real superstars in Eissler and Howell. I think both those guys can give you a 1:53 split which would mean you only need 1:59-2:00 type legs to round out the squad. But you have to be careful to not get buried in a deep field.

That’s what I like about Pennsbury, Abington and North Penn. They seemed pretty deep and pretty balanced. Pennsbury has a chance to really be special when they are on point. Aidan Sauer may end up dropping a 1:52 kind of split on race day. I think he has it in him based on what I saw at Penn Relays. But they have to put him in a position where he can make that happen.

CB West has a great stable of talent. Claricurzio has run 1:53 and has sub 50 second quarter mile speed. He’s already anchored his squad at three different state championships and this will be his third straight outdoor state championship appearance as part of West’s 4x8. I could see him posting a 1:51 if needed to bring things home. Baker, Fortna and Fehrman can each potentially break out and drop a 1:56 kind of split. They can pick each other up if one has a bad day and just get Jake in position with a lead to bring it home.

It feels like CB West should be an easy pick here, but for whatever reason, I’m not 100 percent sold. I honestly could see this race coming down to a lean at the line (something Claricurzio is really familiar with by now based on those 3 state anchor legs). The thing is, I have no clue which team is going to step up and provide the challenge. I’ve been impressed with the WPIAL teams, but I don’t know if they have the game changers on the anchor leg. Plus, I think the two teams have something like 5 sophomores between them on the roster. I’m worried about that youth.

I’m betting that some team ends up surprising us. Who the heck that will be is beyond me, but it’s just the hunch I have. Now that I’ve typed all this out, CB West will probably just runaway with it like they did at districts, but something tells me it won’t be that easy. Anyway, here is my best guess.

8. Cumberland Valley 7:52.55

7. Seneca Valley 7:49.81

6. Abington 7:49.63

5. State College 7:46.99

4. North Penn 7:45.86

3. Pennridge 7:45.75

2. Pennsbury 7:45.20

1. CB West 7:44.87