2018 Indoor State Championship Preview: 3,000m

3,000m

The Stage

Rusty Kujdych of Neshaminy will enter the 3,000 meter final as perhaps a bigger favorite than even Josh Hoey. Rusty was the runner-up in this race a year ago, only denied the title by a fierce close from Nate Henderson. It’s Kujdych’s third straight year in the event and he’s hoping the third time will be the charm. Rusty is set to get his biggest challenge from a couple small school guys that don’t typically get a shot at Goliath. Tristan Forsythe of Winchester Thurston and Brendan Miller of Upper Dauphin, the top two runners from A XC States, will look to take down Rusty alongside 9 other distance talents.

The Field

Ian Miller, Manheim Township 8:57.42

Peter Borger, Malvern Prep 8:56.23

Kyle Burke, Abington Heights 8:56.08

Jason Cornelison, Cheltenham 8:55.95

Tyler Rollins, DT West 8:55.29

Patrick Theveny, Penncrest 8:54.38

Chayce Macknair, Mifflin County 8:53.12

Spencer Smucker, Henderson 8:51.10

Brenden Miller, Upper Dauphin 8:49.95

Mitchell Etter, State College 8:48.57

Tristan Forsythe, Winchester Thurston 8:40.19

Rusty Kujdych, Neshaminy 8:38.71

As mentioned, Kujdych comes in with impressive credentials. He’s got the best PR and the best SB. That goes for the 3200 and the 3k. He’s the reigning XC state champ, a Footlocker finalist and top returner from this race and last spring’s 3200. Plus he’s run the fastest mile of anybody in this field in 2018, running 4:15 earlier at Ocean Breeze. The guy has a killer resume.

But, as I’ve typed too many times to count, the races aren’t won on paper. Tristan Forsythe is taking a bit of a risk in this event, attempting the 3,000 instead of his usual distance, the mile. Forsythe dropped an impressive PR this indoor season with a 9:15 for 3200 at SPIRE. For qualifying purposes, that’s converted to 8:40, but realistically it’s worth faster than that. He skipped the mile (where he won a state championship last spring) to focus on the longer event. Of course, he’s fresh off a state championship in XC from the fall so it’s not like he won’t have some experience. I actually really like the move. It puts some pressure on Rusty and, if he can hold on for the kick, he will be dangerous.

I’m very high on Brendan Miller of Upper Dauphin. For what it’s worth, he’s already run two 3ks on this track, including an 8:49 win at Kevin Dare. Miller ran 15:40 for XC and has stretched himself with some big races this indoor season (after having a nonexistent indoor campaign last year). I just think the guy is a big talent who races fearlessly. He’ll go after Rusty and see what happens. Of course Mitchell Etter of State College just knocked off Miller in their most recent 3k duel, dropping a new PR of 8:48. Etter will also be very familiar with what is essentially a home track advantage. Chayce Macknair, the third member of this mid-state triumvirate, is also racing close to home. He clocked an 8:53 personal best to get to this state meet last week and will now look to add a second straight state medal to his collection after a clutch run at Hershey this fall.

Somehow Spencer Smucker seems to have skated under the radar this indoor season. He’s dropped an indoor mile PR and an indoor 3k PR. He’s proven he can run clutch at states, anchoring Henderson to a state medal in the DMR last winter. He’s got 4 XC state medals and he’s fresh off an appearance at nationals. Plus, he’s never had the chance to mix it up individually. This race is 4 years in the making for him. The Henderson senior has all the tools to finish in the top 3 in this race.

The rest of the field is a bit more unknown. Ian Miller, Peter Borger, Kyle Burke, Jason Cornelison, Tyler Rollins and Patrick Theveny aren’t exactly household names, but they are huge talents. They will all be gunning for their first state medals and, for some, this is their first ever state track race. Theveny is just a sophomore and, although he has the fastest seed of the bunch, will have to prove he can handle a stage that usually overwhelms younger runners. He’s had a monster indoors, but this will be a huge test. Borger is doubling off the mile, but his high upside. Burke won at the Carnival and is a fearless runner who has learned from his battles with Tyler Wirth what it takes to be at the top of the state. Miller has run a lot of 3ks/32s this year which can sometimes tire you out, but also makes you very experienced in the event, ready to finally have things click. He’s lived under 9 minutes this year.

Rollins and Cornelison seem like the most dangerous names. Cornelison has been awesome this year and is really underrated. I can’t help but come back to the Will Griffen district performance a year ago and think big things could be in play. Meanwhile, Rollins is a massive talent. He has a sub 15:40 5k best, comes from a great program and is not coming out of left field as a senior. He was a sub 9:30 guy a year ago at 3200.

Prediction

I think Rusty wins this one. I picked against him in the fall and got burned so I won’t do that again. This feels a lot like Henderson a year ago-a guy due for a state title on the track with all the tools to make it happen. I’d love to see someone make him work (Forsythe in a kick? Miller hanging around and making a late surge?), but I think Rusty will be all alone, potentially gunning for a record. Keep an eye out for sub 8:30 (unless he wants to save it for the DMR). Personally, I think the battle for 2^nd-3^rd-4^th will be the closest it’s been in a while.

1.      Kujdych 8:30.88

2.      Miller 8:37.65

3.      Forsythe 8:41.09

4.      Smucker 8:44.71

5.      Cornelison 8:46.23

6.      Etter 8:46.99

7.      Burke 8:49.30

8.      Theveny 8:51.04