In case you guys haven’t seen, the TFCAofGP Meet of
Champions entries list is officially here:
I plan to give a quick run through the entries and give
some thoughts/preview the action. Like most of my posts this week, this will
have a big “what does this mean for states” feel because I think that is
important/interesting. However, this shouldn’t devalue the significance of this
meet from a purely racing perspective. This meet is a pretty big deal, just
qualifying and getting out there and racing is an honor. My Meet of Champs
medalist shirt from 2010 (shout out to Sam Ellison for carrying us) is one of
my most prized possessions. I’ve worn it so much it’s got some pretty sizable
holes in it and I can’t really wear it out in public. But I’m not throwing that
away (much to my wife’s chagrin).
So I apologize if this has too much of a state slant, but
hopefully that won’t have much of an impact on your ability to enjoy the meet.
Actually, hopefully nothing I ever say has any sort of negative impact on anything
in your life whatsoever. I shouldn’t be important enough for that.
DMR
So lots of good news here – only 14 teams entered this
event which means we won’t have to split this race into two heats. That means
that the top teams can battle head to head for a spot in the state
championships. On the entry list, we have the three best eastern DMRs in the
state in Shanahan, CB West and LaSalle. For Shanahan, I don’t know if we see
their full “A” squad, but they aren’t entered anywhere else so if they were
going to pick a spot this would be it. Maybe we see their non-Hoey guys in
there competing for a spot at states on the 4x8 or DMR if Shanahan decides not
to push all their chips in on the relays (which I’m guessing they will not want
to do considering their individual potential).
CB West has lots of key guys entered in the individual
events (most notably Brian Baker in the mile). They’ve got a deep team so we
could see anything from complete “B” squad to title contenders out of this
squad. I’m guessing they rest at least Baker, Fehrman and Bunch (Fehrman is
also entered in the 4 and the 8, Bunch the 3k). LaSalle is crazy deep and has
plenty of options for this race. Their state spot is secure, but they don’t
really need to push it in other events either. I think they are pretty
comfortable with what they have besides some lesser known bubble guys who could
sneak into states this weekend. Again, we could see a “B” squad with what would
be “A” squad guys on most teams like Pumilia or we could see the “A” team in
all its glory. I feel like maybe an Addison 1200 leg and Twomey 1600 leg is
coming but no guarantees.
The second tier group is the intrigued one to me. This
includes Neshaminy, CR North, CB East, DT West, Penncrest, Great Valley and
Boyertown. You can throw Abington in there because their “A” squad is good
enough to compete with these teams, but I’m speculating they will keep Mitchell
and Coleman fresh for the 800 instead.
This group is basically the state qualifying bubble. It’s
#6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, 17 and 20 in the state as of this moment. I gotta
imagine some of these teams really want a big race in this event. CR North, a
consistent contender with a 3 XC state medalists, should be a big factor in
this race. I think they will be looking for a big time and I wouldn’t be
surprised to see them win with a low 10:30s kind of mark. Their XC rivals from
DT West also could use a big result as they are 11th right now in the
standings. They showed really good speed with their sub 8:10 4x8 and they’ve
gone a proven ace in Tyler Rollins.
CB East is a fun team. This squad is loaded on paper and
have a breakout star in David Endres. Their also really deep, with a plethora
of runners to pick from near the 2 minute barrier. It would be cool to see
Endres on the 12 and Bardwell on the 16 as a slight order change, but East
would also benefit from more competition for Endres on the anchor leg (a factor
they didn’t have going for them when they ran 10:49 last week). Penncrest is
one of my favorite squads on paper as well. They are really dangerous in the right
race. It tentatively appears they will chase a fast mark here, although Lederer
and Theveny are slated to run the mile very soon after this race so who knows. They
are 13th for now so the only way to get in for this event is to run
fast at MoCs.
I’ve been on the Boyertown bandwagon in this event since
the early season. I could see a state medal from them at PSU. They likely have
clinched a 4x8 spot already so that may be enough to sit back on, but I think
they have big upside here. Great Valley shouldn’t be overlooked either. Brett
Zatlin is going all in to try and help his DMR advance to states with no
individual events on his program. He ran the 1200 at Yale and set them up for
their 10:51, but the young guys on the squad had to bring it home. A Zatlin-Endres-Addison
1200 leg would be awesome (let’s throw in Earley and Baker and a Hoey too).
Not positive Neshaminy will go all in on the DMR again.
It would be fun to see Rusty chasing guys (he could run down half the field and
win this thing on the anchor), but they are more than likely guaranteed a spot
at states regardless. A little surprised that teams like Haverford, Twin
Valley, Pennsbury and CR South scratched, but that clears the way for a one
heat final so I appreciate that.
Lastly, Jenkintown hasn’t thrown down a big mark, but
they definitely could. If they load up the relay, watch for this team as a
sleeper to dip down near 10:50.
Mile
Brian Baker has spent this year becoming a superstar. The
kid ran a 1:57.00 800 to win at Lehigh on February 3rd and then
blasted a meet record 4:21 last Friday. The record used to belong to Jake
Brophy so yes it is a big deal. Baker enters this mile as a comfortable
favorite. Maybe he’s going to chase the school record in the event before
loading up on relays at states (my tentative guess) so we could see a sub 4:20
mark if the competition is there.
With Kujdych and Eissler as scratches, Charlie Herrmann
of Lower Merion and Jed Scratchard of Pennsbury have the two next fastest
season bests in the field. However, based on fastest association time, Will
Merhige of the Haverford School looks like he will be the #2 seed. Can any of
those guys push Baker to a PR? Scratchard would be my personal pick (his season
best is from back in December) and he’s fresh and ready to roll.
With Pennsbury scratching the DMR at this meet and
loading up the individuals, there’s a chance they may do individual events at
states as well (after the 4x8, skipping the DMR). A 4:24 kind of time for
Scratchard would make him a medal contender. Meanwhile, Hermman and Merhige are
likely already into the state meet when you consider scratches, but they could
maybe even jump into the fast heat at states with a big run. At the very least,
they have a chance to boost their confidence before the big dance.
Ethan Koza, Avery Lederer and Ryan Campbell were top 15
guys in the state during XC. All three of them may be doubling when they hit
the track of the mile (with the DMR first), but all three of them have the
talent and pedigree to produce an impressive result.
Some sleepers? I like Aiden Tomov of Haverford as a
potential surprise. He’s run 4:30 at Ocean Breeze and has thrown down some
impressive association marks on the flat track. I also like Cheltenham’s Jason
Cornelison. He’s had big success at the 2 mile distance and I think he has the
strength to mix it up with the big names in this field.
Some state meet bubble contenders include Elias Lindgren
(#17 after scratches on my list), Jake Robinson (#21) and Dominic Derafelo
(#23).
800m
This event should be loaded. The always formidable Kamil
Jihad is in this one. The aforementioned Brian Baker is competing. Evan Addison
(4:17-1:58) is entered. Hudson Delisle (3rd place at last year’s
state meet) is slated to compete. In fact, of the top times in the TFCAofGP, 8
of the top 9 guys are slated to compete. It’s loaded. Sometimes, that makes for
a crowded fast heat (especially if the pace lags early) which could open the
door for a surprise result. In which case, keep an eye on one of the slower
heats.
Depending on how may they choose to fit in a heat (my
guess is two of 9 and two of 8 but who knows), you could see Pennsbury’s Javier
Linares (a 1:57 open guy) help set a fast pace for his heat mates much like he
did at Ocean Breeze (I believe he set the pace in the race where David Endres
dropped his mammoth 1:55.00).
There’s plenty of state meet bubble guys in this race so
those guys will certainly appreciate a fast pace. Collin Ochs of CR South is my
first guy out while Talus Gaymore of Penn Wood is my second to last guy in.
Those guys are both entered along with Jarnail Dhillon (#21), Dylan Servis
(#19) and Jarrett Zelinsky (#18). Keep an eye on the Haverford duo of Campbell
and McCallion. Both of those guys could pop off a big race and surprise down
near 2 minutes. Sam Earley is another name that could well exceed his seed
time.
The extra drama with this loaded field revolves around
the fast heat at states. They will only take the top 8 in the fast heat of the 800
which makes for little margin for error for the top seeds. As of right now it
would take somewhere between 1:57.2 and 1:57.7 to get in the top 8 (flat
track). That puts pressure on Matt Eissler of Pennridge and Delisle of
Quakertown who are my #10 and #17 as of now. Lamaj Curry of Chester is #13. If
any of those guys surprise, they could into the fast heat with a big win.
3,000m
Unsurprisingly, the 3k is going to be a barn burner this
year. As of now, I’m projecting the cut off at 8:58.22 flat track. Only one guy
in this field has bested that time and, oh by the way, it’s Rusty Kujdych the
state #1. Behind him is a set of wildcards. Ben Bunch was nearly a state
qualifier last year and comes in with a 9:04 best (#3 seed). Jack Miller was
third at XC states in A and ran sub 15:50 at Paul Short this year. He’s broken
9 and has big incentive for a fast time as he’s currently slated to be first
guy out at states.
Peter Borger of Malvern Prep passed on the mile to go all
in on the 3k. He definitely could close out this race under 9 minutes. Tyler
Rollins and Payton Sewall are both proven talents with converted times at 9
flat and 9:01 (for longer distances). If either of those guys dips under 9
minutes it wouldn’t be surprising to most considering their resumes. LaSalle’s
always deep contingent will make a push, led by Bradden Koors and Ethan Maher
who were the 2-3 for the state champs at Hershey.
Andrew Malmstrom and Noah Demis don’t have flashy times
to date, but they were two monster XC guys who ran very clutch at states out at
Hershey. That clutch gene will be needed again to emerge from the sleeper cop
and punch a ticket to states. Sean Rahill of William Tennent has qualified in
the past and also owns a top 50 finish at XC states.
The biggest sleeper may be Wissahickon’s Matt Maiale. He’s
had a phenomenal season to date, showing great range from 800 up to the 2 mile.
His time at Ocean Breeze nearly got him into states, but he will need to
duplicate that effort (and then some) to get to PSU. The way he’s raced so far
this winter, I think he can do it.
However, for all of these guys, nothing is guaranteed.
The 3k is a really tricky event and sometimes it’s just not your day. However,
having Rusty Kujdych as a pacemaker should help. Rusty won’t play games and he’ll
drag the pace out fast. That means everyone should have at least one guy to
shoot at. Kujdych is expected to smash the meet record of 8:47 set by Dustin
Wilson in 2012 (assuming he wants to go hard). His best this season is under
8:40.
4x800m
The 4x8 is at the end of a busy day at the Meet of
Champions, so it’s anyone’s guess who will leave with the title. I still
remember the 2013 championships where Upper Darby, from the slow heat, knocked
off a tired Bensalem squad to win the MoCs. Bensalem went on to win states the
next weekend and Darby, unfortunately, didn’t medal which goes to show you this
event can be wild.
We will likely see lots of doubling guys on the line from
schools like CR South (8:03 best but all their relay guys are running
individual events), Haverford (big potential based on season’s best with
doubling Tomov, Campbell and McCallion), Pennsbury and CB West (if they even
want to do this double/triple). And, yes, I’m definitely missing some others
like Abington, Boyertown, LaSalle, Radnor and Penncrest but this list is
getting really long.
But we will see some fresh squads as well. CB South and
Bensalem appear to be gearing up specifically for this race. Bensalem is 17th
out of 18 state qualifiers and could use some extra time. CB South is 21st
but looked great at the last chance meet with a season’s best 8:25. As I just
touched on my last 12 years post, CB South has some history when it comes to
the 4x8.
Those two will be bubble contenders, but I also think you
can’t count out Twin Valley, Holy Ghost Prep or Penncrest to make noise.
Penncrest is currently #19. And, hey, it would be silly to overlook a titan of
the 4x8 in North Penn.
All that being said, I think the two most dangerous teams
in this race may be Pennridge and CB East. Pennridge will seemingly be pretty
fresh beyond Eissler and will have a chance to recruit the junior to the “A”
squad for states with a big win. CB East seems to only be doubling with the DMR
and, honestly, they could bring some fresh guys off the bench for the 4x8 who
would be equally formidable. I’m jumping on the CB East bandwagon now before it
gets too crowded.
For the record, don’t be surprised if LaSalle wins this.
Historically, they like to chase the 4x8 at this meet. That may have changed by
2018, but I think they really chase a big mark in this event and try to make a
statement. If you look, you’ll see they’ve got the meet record from 2012 at
under 8 minutes.
Predicted winning mile time - 4:19.4
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