Back to the Lab Again

Yes, my head is still spinning from an Eagles Super Bowl victory, but I’ve recovered enough to give some quick thoughts on the state landscape. Here’s an event by event breakdown in the order that they will actually happen at states.

4x800m

# Accepted: 18 Teams

SQG: 8:17.63

Current Projected Cut Off: 8:21.60

The 4x8 landscape got a big time shake up this weekend. No, I’m not talking about Pennsbury (although they clocked a PA #2 7:57 at the prestigious Millrose Games), but instead the boys over at CB West. After impressing at Glenn Mills, West took to the flat track of Lehigh and turned heads with an 8:00.14. Now I’m assuming based on the results that this was one of those TFCAofGP meets where you can double (and maybe wear spikes?) but someone would have to confirm. Regardless, West ran this time in the same meet where Brian Baker dropped a 1:57 in the open 800 (top 5 in the state post conversions). And if you can believe it Baker may not even be West’s best runner as they have a 1:52 type in Jake Claricurzio who seems to be rounding into shape at the right time. West also added a flat track 3:27 in the 4x4 in the same meet and have run 10:29 for the DMR. I’m in on this team making noise.

The always dangerous squad from Pennridge announced it’s presence this weekend as well. The Rams dropped an 8:06 to move to the #6 spot in the rankings. This squad is led by two sub 2 minute legs in the Eisslers and has a historically strong resume, particularly outdoors. Last year they added yet another state medal to their collection in the spring and put together a 4^th straight season of sub 7:47 marks. Pennridge was state champs for the indoor 4x8 in 2012.

CB East, a team that has emerged as a bit of a 4x8 power in their own right, also got in on the action with a time of 8:10. East is led by David Endres, the surprise state #2 in the 800 with his 1:55.0 from Ocean Breeze, but the other legs really came to play in this race as well. According to East’s website Endres added a 2 flat anchor leg to PRs from his teammates, making this a high upside pick moving forward if they choose to pursue this event.

LaSalle, Twin Valley and Radnor all moved into a state qualifying position this weekend although those spots will not necessarily be safe when you glance at their closest competition. However, as things currently stand the “slower” of the two 4x8 sections at indoor states would be loaded-led by CB East and including teams like LaSalle, Radnor, Bensalem, Boyertown and Spring Ford.

I like Haverford’s potential to make moves in the 4x8. They have a fantastic core and it seems only a matter of time before they piece it together and run under 8:20. One of the WPIAL/D3 teams that is off the radar now is going to get in although I couldn’t tell you who. Maybe Hempfield or Wyomissing, but I also like Mount Lebo and Indiana Area. If Seneca Valley wants to stay in the hot heat at states, they may need to run a loaded 4x8 at one of these WPIAL meets. That could pull the rest of the west to a fast time.

Mile

# Accepted: 20 Individuals

SQG: 4:31.73

Current Projected Cut Off: 4:32.86

After projecting a ton of scratches in the mile earlier this season, the field is starting to shape out more as expected. At the top is obviously Josh Hoey. The Shanahan senior just clocked a 4:07.42 for the #2 time in state history (just missing the mark Noah Affolder’s mark from last winter of 4:07.24, ironically run at the same meet). Hoey was a little inconsistent at the mile distance last year, but he’s been absolutely locked in at this event in 2018. It’s hard to imagine anyone toppling him at states if he runs this fresh (my guess is he won’t be on the 4x8).

The conversation for second is a bit more intriguing. You have Liam Conway, the top returner, but also the guys who finished right next to him in Evan Addison and Tristan Forsythe. Forsythe hasn’t had the flashy times, but he hasn’t had the right opportunity either. Tristan’s last two state meets have finished with gold. Addison is fresh off a 1:58 open 800, showcasing his speed, and he’s also run a lifetime best of 4:17.08. Meanwhile, Conway has run 4:15.33 and was victorious at the Millrose Trials in his earlier debut. Your guess is as good as mine as to who is the favorite of this crop.

You’ll notice I left out Neshaminy’s Rusty Kujdych from this mix as he think he’s going to scratch for the 3k. That being said, Kujdych is piecing together an unreal stretch of miles. He dropped a 4:15.09 at Ocean Breeze and really impressed with that display of speed. That’s #2 in the state. In that race he beat Addison head to head which should give him some extra confidence. Plus, Rusty likely just dropped a massive anchor leg on the DMR as he propelled his Neshaminy teammates to 5^th in the adjusted state rankings. All I can say is wow.

There’s plenty I could write about the middle section of the rankings, but I’m more interested in the back half right now. Some of the bubble names include Will Merhige, David Piercy, Elias Lindgren and Peter Borger. Three of those guys are independent leaguers that many people don’t know (but should). Jake Robinson of Conestoga is putting together some awesome results. He was a top 50 guy during XC and has a clutch factor that can’t be overlooked. Boyertown could have three guys in the field when all is said and done-or maybe 0 if they all scratch for relays (as of now Boyertown appears to be first team out in the DMR).

800m

# Accepted: 24 Individuals

SQG: 1:59.63

Current Projected Cut Off: 2:01.48

The number of sub 2 guys has been consistently jumping up as the projected cut off in this event is sinking quickly. Although this field returned a crop of big names (Josh Hoey, Joe Cullen, Matt Eissler, Kamil Jihad) the story to date has been the unknowns. The #1 and #2 runners in the state are Collin Ebling and Dave Endres. Ebling has been a consistent force this indoors, but I’d wager most can’t even tell you where he goes to school (it’s Pottsville by the way). Meanwhile, Endres has been hiding among a super talented class of 2020 waiting for a moment to breakout. That came a little over a week ago when he unleashed a massive PR at 1:55.05. He skipped the 1:56s completely (as well as most of the 1:57s and nearly all of the 1:55s). That’s one of the most jaw dropping breakthroughs in indoor history.

Yes, there is a Hoey in the top 5 of the state to this point-but it’s not Josh. It’s Jonah Hoey, a sophomore who has run 1:56.11 and has cruised to some impressive victories. I honestly think Jonah Hoey may win the whole event this season, especially if he doesn’t have to go head to head with his big brother. Jonah has also dipped into the low 4:20s for the mile a couple times this season.

Brian Baker of CB West wasn’t even projected to be the fastest guy on his 4x8 relay entering this season, let alone the #5 guy in the state. Baker has enjoyed success at both the 800 and the mile, likely played a big role in the team’s top 5 relays, and is picking up marquee victories on not so marquee tracks like Haverford and Lehigh. I’m in on Baker, but I also suspect he may be on double-duty for relays at indoor states.

Lamaj Curry is legit. Brett Zatlin is building a nice base of consistency. Hudson Delisle is out there biding his time waiting to strike. Tyler Wirth entered into the game this weekend (2 flat at CSU). Tyler Shue is legit. Cameron Mitchell has some legit raw speed. There is a guy named Jarrett in the top 20 who could make noise. I could keep going!

As usual, the 800 has the most intriguing list of names of the bunch and things should only get crazier in the weeks to come. Especially if the defending champion wants to throw his hat in the ring.

3,000m

# Accepted: 12 Individuals

SQG: 8:58.43

Current Projected Cut Off: 8:59.88

Although there was some movement this week in the rankings, the top 15 spots didn’t change. I suppose that’s not surprising considering those type 15 spots are all under 9:01 by conversion. That’s pretty darn good for this time of year. What’s crazier though is I only project 1 of the top 13 guys to be a scratch. That could change if some relays change hands (Henderson could sneak in, maybe State College gives it a go, Manheim Township has long shot potential like Wissahickon, could Kujdych do the mile-DMR double?), but for now I’m not convinced.

I said this before, but we would have some fun names competing for medals in this race. One of Patrick Theveny, Jason Corenlison, Matt Maiale, Jake Underwood and Ian Miller would be guaranteed to leave the state meet with hardware which would be pretty cool to see considering I barely knew any of these guys names until this fall (sort of).

But we also have three top 5 XC guys in Kujdych, Beveridge and Cupp plus the #2 guy in A (Brendan Miller) and arguably the #2 guy from AA (Sam Snodgrass) plus a national qualifier (Spencer Smucker). So the star power is in this event as well.

DMR

# Accepted: 12 Teams

SQG: 10:40.73

Current Projected Cut Off: 10:51.26

We are now up to 15 teams who are under 11 minutes meaning that this race is officially heating up. The most surprising team of this sub 11 crop has got to be Neshaminy. Even though I’ve been alluding to the possibility of this squad dropping a big time for a couple weeks, I’m still surprised to see 10:42 next to this squad’s name. They were state qualifiers when Kujdych was a sophomore two years ago and they look poised to get back there again (barring something dramatic). We’ll see if their sudden medal potential makes Rusty reconsider his options in the mile and 3k.

I think Owen J Roberts has the potential to pull a similar move to Neshaminy in the coming weeks. The top 10 squad from XC could join other D1 qualifiers CRN, Shanahan, DT West and Spring Ford in the top 12 rankings in the coming weekend. They started showing some signs of life in the most recent TFCAofGP meet.

At this point, I’m not sure how many teams will jump in and out of this top 12. I could see Haverford, Twin Valley and Boyertown making a run. The Western teams shouldn’t be counted out. But I’d also wager that CR North, Pennsbury, and Spring Ford (among others) will be working to better their qualifying marks sooner rather than later. I feel like those teams are putting most of their chips in the center of the table for this event (although who knows because Pennsbury could have their guys go 4x8-8-4x4 instead). Great Valley is interesting as their performance at Yale was great, but can it be duplicated? They are the #12 team as of this moment in time.

At the top, I really like Seneca Valley’s squad. I think Shanahan could run with them considering their awesome depth, but I think SV has high upside if they focus specifically on this event while their competition’s focus drifts. LaSalle is always dangerous in this event as well. They, Henderson and O’Hara are historically the most successful DMR programs with LaSalle having the best shot of making serious noise this year.