One Week To Go: Who Will Make States? Individual Edition

Meets Remaining on PTXC Calendar

Valentine’s Invitational 2/14

State College Invite 2/15

CSU Run at the Rec #3

TFCAofGP MoCs

TSTCA Indoor Champs

Youngstown #4

Mile

I’ll choose to focus more on the qualifying picture as opposed to who I think will do well at states (that will come when I make my state predictions later). So obviously I could write paragraphs about Hoey and Forsythe and Kujdych (and Hengst now maybe as the PTFCA lists him as a qualifier but his Boston interview makes it sound like he won't be at states), but I’ll save those. That being said I do want to point out a couple interesting sub plots. With Hoey looking so close to unbeatable (and with seemingly no way/desire to punch a ticket for the 800) will someone like Liam Conway scratch the mile and go all in on the 800? What about Forsythe and the 3k? And suddenly Kujdych and Beveridge are mile contenders. Do they have interest in the shorter event or do they only have eyes for the 3k? It’s a tricky read right now.

With the mile, I tend to believe a lot of scratches will happen whether it is for relay reasons or other individual event reasons. That means that even if you are outside the top 40 right now, you could still sneak into the state meet. And that’s why I suspect we will see some big time performances in the last weekend of the season.

Elias Lindgren of Episcopal and his usual rival Peter Borger of Malvern Prep are names to watch here as they try to punch their ticket for states. Jake Robinson of Conestoga is another logical name who, unlike Borger and Lindgren, is not qualified for the MoCs 3k and doesn’t have much of a fall back option. Jack Miller is a wildcard after his impressive 3k last week. The 3k is setting up to be the toughest event to qualify in, but he’s currently on my projected just missing list for both the 3k and the mile. Jack Sieberlich of LaSalle has a shot at punching a state ticket. Yasin-Spann from Overbrook, Theveny from Penncrest, Hoyer & Maiale from Wissahickon and Zawodniak from CR South are fun wild cards if they chase in this event.

Out west, Gordon Pollock will need a big finish to his season to guarantee a spot next to his teammate Tristan Forsythe on the line at states. He could definitely do it (heck, he may get in even if he doesn’t improve his time if scratches work in his favor), but he will need to have things click. Connor Volk-Kloss is likely the only Seneca Valley miler who won’t be pulling 4x8-DMR double duty and, based on his most recent result at SPIRE, he’s right in the mix for a bubble state spot.  

In Fast Heat news, it’s also important to keep an eye on how the top 10 spots in the state shake out for this event. Charlie Herrmann from Lower Merion, Will Merhige from the Haverford School and Sam Snodgrass from South Fayette jump out as names with a lot to gain with a big race. I’ve currently got them at 11^th, 12^th and 10^th in the standings when accounting for scratches. I’m not 100% Snodgrass will even contest the mile at states (he may have a better shot at the 3k depending on where the big names go), but he’s a returning medalist with big talent who could drop a nice time at TSTCA this weekend.

800m

The 800 has seen some craziness this year. There are plenty of new names atop the current state qualifying list which could put some pressure on the big names to run fast this weekend to secure spots in the top heats. Hudson Delisle of Quakertown jumps out as one of those guys as he’s currently slotted at #17 in my rankings. That would be Heat 3 of 3. Now Delisle may be hurt (I haven’t seen him race in a while) and he’s also proven he can produce from the slow heat in the past (was 3^rd overall last year, running out of the middle heat). Matt Eissler, a state medalist as a sophomore last year, also needs a big time this weekend. He’s sitting in 10^th on my current standings which would leave him out of the fast heat. He will almost certainly be gunning for gold in this event at MoCs. Brett Zatlin of Great Valley is a top contender who may just miss the fast heat, but he’s not qualified for the 800 at MoCs meaning he may not have an opportunity to improve eon his time.

What will the Pennsbury guys do? Are they concerned at all about the open 800 or is this school all in on the two relays? In the Western part of the state, the same thing applies to Seneca Valley’s Seth Ketler. And, heck, you gotta wonder what CB West’s plan is for Baker, Claricurzio and Fehrman (and Laatsch).

But how about bubble guys? There are some prominent Westerners like Dylan Binda, Zach Ehling, and Kendall Branan. All of those guys are currently slotted out on my list, but they aren’t far from getting in. I’d be interested to see if Zach DeCarmine can keep the magic going from PTFCA and find another big PR on a fast track like State College. Will any district 3 guys be at State College with a chance to make an improvement? Tyler Wirth of Wallenpaupack could also lock in his spot with a nice run at CSU.

3,000m

Ah, the 3k. This event has always been brutal to qualify for and this year is setting up to be no different. There are 17 guys under 9 minutes by conversion with two more at 9 flat and another at 9:01. And to make matters even trickier, there are not projected to be a lot of scratches in this event. Out of the top 20 or so guys, I’ve only got three who may scratch (McKenna of Spring Ford seems likely but not guaranteed, Lederer could scratch if the DMR qualifies and same for Rollins at DT West).

Of course, you never know if Kujdych would rather do the mile-DMR double or Beveridge wants to try that if Butler has a big day this weekend. Maybe Forsythe doesn’t have any interest in over extending himself with the double.

By the way, the field is likely to get more crowded this weekend. I’d be surprised if Ben Bunch of CB West and Peyton Sewall of DT West aren’t on the start line at MoCs trying to punch a ticket to states. Chayce Macknair of Mifflin County has the ability to get into states, he just needs the opportunity. Maybe he and Morgan Cupp (plus Etter?) take a shot at a fast time at State College this week.

One of the Cinderella stories of this season, Matt Maiale of Wissahickon, is another name to watch at TFCAofGPs. Plus the TFCAofGP has some fun sleepers like Donnelly of Haverford, the LaSalle boys, Noah Demis of North Penn and Andrew Malmstrom of Owen J Roberts.

Out West, Christian Fitch and Josh Lewis lead my picks for game changers in the 3k. Those two plus Dan McGoey (3^rd at states in XC) have a ton of talent and have shown signs that they could break 9 minutes on the right day. At this point you’ve get down to 8:56 to start to feel confident about your state qualifying odds (and even still there are no guarantees with the depth of this group).