One Week To Go: Who Will Make States? Relay Edition

Meets Remaining on PTXC Calendar

Valentine’s Invitational 2/14

State College Invite 2/15

CSU Run at the Rec #3

TFCAofGP MoCs

TSTCA Indoor Champs

Youngstown #4

DMR

With one week to go, the state cut off is set at 10:48.57 and leading the bubble is State College. The Little Lions just raced a fast DMR this past week at their home meet, but they may choose to use their last home meet to take one more shot at better that mark. At this point, they’ve got some solid performers (Etter being most obvious, but sophomore Zach DeCarmine was awesome at the PTFCA Carnival), but it seems like they don’t have high odds of qualifying individuals outside Etter in the 3k (Etter is #11 right now so he may want to try his hand at the 3k one more time).

Some other teams that could show up for the last State College meet include Mifflin County (10:52 is #16) and Wyomissing (the AA state champs have been super quiet with no Cullen or Kuhn at the Carnival). Let me know what other mid-state teams may be active in this meet (Penns Valley? Could they get in the mix?).

Henderson has their Valentine’s meet so, if they can find the competition, they may take a shot at lowering their 10:52.14 DMR. Otherwise, they are not in the MoCs so I believe they won’t be able to better that time.

Which brings us to the two big meets: TSTCA and TFCAofGP Championships. Currently only Seneca Valley has punched a ticket to states from the western part of the state. SV (currently #1 in 10:23.07) won’t need to run a DMR hard this weekend and I’d be surprised to see them chase it. However, Butler seems like a very real contender. They’ve already clocked 10:57.38 and Noah Beveridge just ran a blazing 4:16 (while Brett Brady clocked his own big time mark at 4:30). AA darling Greensburg Salem, fresh off two big runs at 1600, could take a big shot in this event. If they click, they can definitely dip into the low 10:40s. But will they go for it? Dylan Binda isn’t in qualifying position, but Cameron and Mark Brown appear to have Mile spots locked up for now (they are both top 15 with projected scratches). I’d like to see Indiana Area push their chips in the pot on this race and see what happens as well.

Now at the TFCAofGP Meet, the DMR is the first event of the day, meaning you can bet your bottom dollar teams will go after it. Last year 7 teams broke 10:52 and the top 6 teams ran state qualifying marks. You can bet a similar style race will take place this year. I’d guess LaSalle is safe from a qualifying stand point so they won’t need to run hard. Same for CB West. Neshaminy should be OK with their time (if they don’t get in, it would be an unprecedentedly fast DMR in the state. They may choose not to take any chances seeing as Rusty is safely in for individual events already and dabble in the DMR.

CR North, Pennsbury, CB East, DT West, Penncrest, Great Valley, Boyertown, Haverford and Twin Valley are all qualified and all in the top 21 times in the state this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if all of these guys load up and chase a fast time to punch a state ticket. Twin Valley, Boyertown and Great Valley would likely have to do it out of the slow heat at Meet of Champs, but that’s doable (teams have won from the slow heat). CR South would be fun to see in the DMR as well as I think they could pop a sub 10:50 kind of mark.

My guess as of right now? It’s going to take about 10:46 (flat track) to guarantee a spot at states for the DMR. That leaves GFS right around the bubble (without an obvious path to improve their time, they could maybe toe the line against Henderson at Valentine’s).

4x800m

The 4x800 is on the slower side right now. The past three years the state cut off has been 8:12, 8:12, 8:14. Right now I’ve got it at 8:19.76. Now remember that the amount of accepted teams has increased this year (up to 18 teams compared to 16 last year and 12 before that). If you look at the 16^th time it’s 8:18 (converted) and the 12^th time is 8:11 so at least that last one is fairly in line.

I’d expect more than a few bubble teams to dabble in the 4x8 this year. With 18 teams being accepted, no one under 8:10 should have cause for fear (unless they want to guarantee a spot in the fast heat, which currently projects to cut off at 8:07 bank). However those teams near 8:20 flat track will need to improve to feel more comfortable. I’d guess the Penn Wood time from last week (8:16.93 converted) is going to be the cut off. Bensalem is an obvious candidate to make a big push to improve their time. Haverford could certainly make waves, but have to come from a long way back at 8:29. I really like CB South has a dark horse. They have been historically very well coached in the middle distances. Penncrest could be dangerous if they’d like to be, but I think the DMR will (and should) be more of a priority. Mount Lebanon is the team to watch out west.

As mentioned, the hot heat cut off right now is 8:07 so we may see some teams try and sneak into the fast heat. The most likely programs would be CB East, Radnor, Boyertown or LaSalle who are in qualifying position but not in the fast heat. LaSalle likely isn’t running a full “A” squad at states (Addison has mile duties) so I’m not sure they will load up the 4x8 at this point (although historically they tend to stack the 4x8 at MoCs). CB East is in 10^th so they don’t need a huge day to sneak into the hot heat. I still feel like Boyertown’s best event in the DMR long term. I like Radnor’s squad a lot, but I don’t know if they can break 8:10 this weekend and make the hot heat.

Long shots to turn heads this weekend? The always dangerous powers of North Penn and State College could make one last push into the state finals.