2018 Indoor State Championship Preview: Mile

Mile

The Scene

A year ago, Noah Affolder raced to an impressive win in this event, doubling off the 4x8 to win with a 4:15.21. Right behind him were three juniors-Liam Conway, Tristan Forsythe and Evan Addison. Conway and Addison are back to chase the title this year (Forsythe in the 3k) but, perhaps surprisingly, both guys will enter the meet as big underdogs. Josh Hoey of Bishop Shanahan is the favorite after running a near state record 4:07.42 to win at the Millrose Games. Hoey is looking to pull off the Mile-800 double, a truly rare achievement. Although he’s a clear favorite, Hoey can’t sit back as his competition will not give him anything easy.

Let’s breakdown both heats of the Mile.

Heat 1

Connor Shields, Warwick 4:34.28

Nathan Grucelski, Conestoga Valley 4:33.68

Jack Miller, Jenkintown 4:32.72

Peter Borger, Malvern Prep 4:32.30

Davis Piercy, Kennett 4:31.89

Gordon Pollock, Winchester Thurston 4:31.61

Connor Volk-Klos, Seneca Valley 4:30.38

Patrick Anderson, Mount Lebanon 4:30.27

Aiden Tomov, Haverford 4:30.27

Elias Lindgren, Episcopal 4:29.92

As was discussed, a few surprising scratches opened the door for some guys outside the state qualifying standard to get into the field. The big beneficiaries came from District 3 as Connor Shields of Warwick (outside the top 50 by time) and Nathan Grucelski of Conestoga Valley snuck in with 4:33 and 4:34 seeds. But don’t let those times fool you-these guys can run. Shields as a low 4:20s PB and has good 800 speed. He can hang in a faster race and he can kick off a slower pace. He’s going to be a dangerous medal contender. Meanwhile, Grucelski was a winner against a deep field at the PTFCA Carnival this season (one of the best meets in the state) so he knows how to win. Grucelski hasn’t had the same week in and week out opportunities to run fast that his competitors have on the east coast, but when he gets the chance to shine he does. Watch for one of these guys to finish top 10 in the final standings.

I’ve been a big Aiden Tomov fan so far this season as the Haverford junior has also proven he can run well in big races. He’s been at 4:30 twice this year and also beat some big names in a TFCAofGP association meet gold medal run earlier in the season. He’s got good speed as well, helped by some strong training partners at 800. He could make noise. I also wouldn’t rule out a big day from Jenkintown’s Jack Miller. This guy’s last two XC states runs were incredibly clutch. He was the top soph in the state just missing the top 10 and then he nearly caught Brendan Miller for the silver this season. He’s got the strength and I think he can win this heat if he has his day.

We will also see a great rivalry match-up between Peter Borger and Elias Lindgren. The best two runners in the Independent League this season will go head to head in an epic battle. Borger has great strength (he’s qualified in the 3k as well), but Lindgren has had his number in recent face-offs. Let’s see if Borger can get some revenge for the Independent League XC title and if these two runner’s competitive fire carries over to the rest of the field. The winner of this race will likely need a time near 4:24-4:25 to get into the medals.

The western names really draw my attention. Gordon Pollock obviously has some good training partners at Winchester Thurston and he has gathered some nice big meet experience the last two seasons at XC and outdoor. Forsythe won the slow heat two years ago and that led to a state medal for him, maybe Pollock uses a page from that playbook? Connor Volk-Klos is not on Seneca Valley’s awesome DMR, but is a 4:30 miler. Holy cow, speaks to how good that squad is, but also means you shouldn’t underestimate Volk-Klos. He comes from a program that knows how to do big things. But Patrick Anderson of Lebo is my guy to watch. They too have a deep team (their 4x8 is competing) and he emerged a little bit out of nowhere at TSTCA’s to make states. He was an XC medalist after one of the clutchest home stretches in the state. I think Anderson is your winner in Heat 1 and a state medal candidate.

By the way, now that I’ve failed to mention him you can bet Davis Piercy is going to have a big day. He’s had a consistent season, been successful at the longer and shorter stuff and represents a Kennett team who has produced strong distance runners of late (Austin Maxwell most recently).

Heat 2

Charlie Herrmann, Lower Merion 4:29.64

Will Merhige, Haverford School 4:29.06

Cameron Binda, Greensburg Salem 4:28.83

Brett Brady, Butler 4:26.59

Mark Brown, Greensburg Salem 4:25.40

Tyler Wirth, Wallenpaupack 4:24.11

Evan Addison, LaSalle 4:17.08

Noah Beveridge, Butler 4:16.40

Liam Conway, Owen J Roberts 4:15.33

Josh Hoey, Bishop Shanahan 4:07.42

This should be a compelling battle. Yes, Hoey is a big favorite and with a 4:07 best and 1:51 800 speed in his back pocket, it’s hard to see the Bishop Shanahan senior being toppled. Josh in the defending 800 state champ and was the runner up in the mile two years ago as a sophomore (to his brother). It’s possible that Hoey will enter this race doubling off the 4x8, complicating the picture, but I’d be very surprised to see him on that relay. I think he enters this race fresh.

Of course, fresh doesn’t mean you will be going all out. Hoey will have the 800 in at least the back of his mind as he contemplates the double. I’d imagine he’s going to keep things under control until he absolutely needs to take over with his kick. That’s a strategy that’s worked out fine for him so far, but it does potentially leave you vulnerable to an upset if someone else gets a good jump or you get boxed in.

The guy most likely to pull the upset in the kicking scenario may be Liam Conway. The Owen J Roberts senior was second a year ago (with a big kick) and also picked up the bronze outdoors in the 1600 (with a big kick). He always seems to be coming on blazing fast at the end, but maybe he starts his kick a tiny bit too late. If he’s figured out how to time it right, he can steal this race. This past fall was the most confident and consistent Conway we’ve seen which is scary considering he won two state medals a year ago.

The other two primary contenders are Noah Beveridge and Evan Addison. As mentioned, Addison was a state medalist last year. He dropped a 4:17 already this year and the kid was absolutely flying on his 4x800 leg at Meet of Champs. Evan isn’t afraid to set a fast pace and he could potentially throw a wrench into the kickers strategy in the state final. By the way, he too is coming off a monster XC season that included a marquee victory at Carlisle. Meanwhile, Beveridge is a bit of a newcomer. He’s been a 3k-32 kinda guy in the big meets (backed up by his XC prowess) but he does have speed to unleash. He split a 1:54ish mark last spring and he’s PRed in the mile this year with a 4:16. Beveridge made the decision to pass on the 3k for this mile so he must be confident in his speed. At the very least, Beveridge is high on the gamer scale which gives him a chance to pull off something spectacular.

The wildcard in the title hunt is Tyler Wirth of Wallenpaupack. He was a monster during XC, holds outdoor bests under 4:20 and at 1:53 (split) and comes in with a top 5 seed. Wirth is the top junior in the field by time and we’ve seen underclassmen contend for the title each of the past two seasons.

Greensburg Salem will have a pair of runners in this race, potentially giving them an extra advantage. Mark Brown has been the faster of the duo this indoor season, but Cameron owns a 4:22 outdoor PR. Both will be dangerous in the fight for the medals. Will Mehrige is an excellent runner from the Independent League who didn’t get much love during XC. That being said, he’s been perhaps the #2 guy in the TFCAofGP mile field the last two weeks. Brett Brady of Butler dropped a big time at TSTCA, hitting 4:26. That was a wow kind of performance that hopefully brings him out of Beveridge’s shadow. He was an XC state medalist and his 4:26 earned him the confidence of the coaching staff that he could add more hardware here at PSU.

Lastly, we have Charlie Herrmann of Lower Merion. The junior was a part of an awesome LM squad last indoor season and ran the 800 leg of a medal worthy DMR. He snuck into this hot heat as the 10^th seed but will have redemption on his mind after failing to improve his seed time in an important race at Meet of Champs.

I didn’t plan on talking about every runner, but hey, these guys all gave me something to say. It’s going to be a fun meet.

Predictions

Ultimately, I think this has the potential to be a race for the ages. I’d like to see the pace stay reasonably quick, but if it lags too much, I think Hoey could be vulnerable on a perfect day for Conway. That’s what it is going to take-a perfect day from someone-if they are going to knock off the 4:07 man from Shanahan. Ultimately, I can’t bet against Hoey. He’s been unreal thus far this year and has been much more consistent than year’s past as well. That’s what really takes this thing home in my eyes.

1.      Hoey 4:14.00

2.      Conway 4:14.96

3.      Beveridge 4:16.02

4.      Addison 4:16.55

5.      Brown 4:21.17

6.      Wirth 4:22.59

7.      Anderson 4:25.42

8.      Merhige 4:25.88