These are my estimates for who will be qualified for the state meet when you factor in scratches. Thanks to those who have provided some insights regarding the entries. I will continue to update these and edit the lists throughout the weekend until the final numbers come forth. Let me know if you have questions and I'll do my best to answer. Any updates are appreciated.
Get your entries in before the deadline and congrats on a great season for those who are all finished up!
4x800m
Mile
800m
3,000m
DMR
I promise that I have not looked at Etrain’s picks, so I’m curious how close we are. I'm confident that he’ll be way closer to being right than me. I’m focusing on teams that have relays in the picture, since I find these scratch/no scratch choices to be very interesting. I’m basing these predictions off a few assumptions: 1) Everyone will pick the event that gives them the best chance at the best medal (i.e. they would rather get 3rd in the mile than 6th in the 800), and 2) An individual medal means just as much as a team medal.
ReplyDeleteCB West: Go for 4x8, DMR; Baker scratches 800 and mile
• Starting off with the hardest call, in my opinion. I really want to see Baker in the mile. He has top-5 potential. But CBW seems like a relay-oriented squad, and with them being 3rd before any scratches in both relays, I bet they attack those.
Shanahan: Josh Mile-800 double, no hard DMR or 4x8
• Lots of moving parts. If I’m Hoey, I want to cement my place in state history. How manys guys have pulled off the mile-800 double? He probably won’t even have to go all out in either event. BS still has a shot in the 4x4, so I bet both Hoey’s run that at the end of the meet. Is Yoquinto one of their 4x4 legs? I’m guessing yes, but that would change things if he isn’t. 2 last points: I’m assuming Hengst is not eligible, and they scratch the DMR. Summary: Josh Mile-8-4x4; Jonah 4x8-8-4x4; Yoquinto 4x8-4x4.
Butler, Neshaminy, Penncrest, Spring Ford: 3k vs DMR dilemma
• The 3k-DMR double appears to be the most difficult double at states. Even Jake Brophy had trouble with it once upon a time. These 4 squads all have guys (presumably) in the 3k field, while also being able to throw out top-tier DMRs. But I think that they take slightly different paths. For SF and Penncrest, I’m going with all individual scratches to take a fresh run at the relay. This would help to open up the congestion of the 3k bubble. No slight to McKenna/Lederer/Theveny, but I view them as back-end medal contenders. This makes the decision to try and get a nice team medal all the more likely. Rusty and Beveridge, on the other hand, are special talents. And, both are qualified for Mile-3k-DMR. As a fan, I would love to see both guys go after that triple (can you imagine that?) but instead I see both scratching the mile and picking the 3k-DMR. Butler went 10:33 today, which is absolutely flying. A team that good can mix it up with the best, and I can’t see them not taking a shot at it. An alternative might be Mile-DMR, giving Beveridge some extra time to recover. I have a real hard time believing Neshaminy can be super competitive with a tired Rusty, but they might as well go after it anyway. Most other teams will be tired by then, why not reward the other three guys who got them there with a chance at states.
Wyomissing: Cullen Mile-DMR
ReplyDelete• That 10:38 caught me by surprise. That has to be one of the fastest non-AAA DMRs ever right? This team had a dream season in the fall, and I bet they keep it rolling at states. Cullen, to stay as fresh as possible, skips the 800 and hops in the mile. Don’t forget, he’s a 4:13 guy, making him a serious threat. BTW, the more I think about it, maybe Beveridge and/or Rusty choose this route as well. What do I know though.
Seneca Valley: All relays, no individuals
• Basically, they do the same thing as CB West. They surprised a lot of people a few years ago by scratching entirely from the 4x8, but that seems more unlikely this time around. Their quartet ran 7:46 outdoors, which tells me that sub-8 should be on the horizon. They’re still #1 in the DMR, so you have to go after that. I will say, having Ketler and Owori run the mile is appealing. But going back to my first assumption, a 5-7 type finish in the mile doesn’t seem enough to skip a potential top-3 medal in the 4x8. This is looking too far ahead, but it might make sense to do the individual events next year when Ketler and Owori are seniors and might not have the same relay legs around them.
Pennsbury: 3 guys in the 8?
• Last team. They are a 4x8 team, it’s the 1st event, so they’re running it. The real question is what to do with the open 800. My vote is enter Sauer, Scratchard, and Linares. The problem is with Scratchard. He’s ranked somewhere around 30th, meaning that even if his coaches enter him, there’s no guarantee he actually makes it. He probably has a better shot of making the mile, but for whatever reason I don’t think that’s the route they’ll go. The other option, of course, is just do the relays. But I have some doubts over their shot in the DMR, and I kinda love the idea of seeing 3 teammates in an open event. So my final prediction is 4x8, try to get all 3 in the 8, but also declare for the DMR just in case Scratchard can’t get in individually. If he does get in, I imagine they’ll just send out a “B” DMR.
One thing I did not factor in was everyone potentially basing their decisions off of Shanahan. Guys like Conway might try to pick the event that Hoey doesn’t do, while CB West-type teams do the same for the relays. But I’m banking on relay duties having the largest pull. The mile-DMR double might just end up being the most popular decision, so watch out for possible showstoppers in the those events.
Yes, I know that was way too long-winded. I get excited over strange topics like this.
-Jiminy Cricket
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