2018 Indoor State Championship Preview: 4x800m


4x800m
The Stage
Ironically, what has easily been the best 4x8 performance of the 2018 winter track season came during 2017. Bishop Shanahan opened up the year with a 7:49.37 4x800 that has held his position across the leaderboard throughout the year. However, it’s unclear if Shanahan will have those same pieces on the line when the gun sounds for PSU’s first distance event. Ironically, seemingly their top challenger in Pennsbury has scratched the event (as has western power Seneca Valley) seemingly further opening the door for Shanahan. However, CB West, the reigning outdoor state champions, are not expected to go quietly. They’ve yet to fully unleash their 4x8 on a fast track, but they’ve clocked 8 flat this year and are all in on the relays here at states.

Heat 1
CB South 8:19.74
Bensalem 8:17.17
Penn Wood 8:16.93
Radnor 8:13.88
Indiana Area 8:13.22
LaSalle 8:13.17
Twin Valley 8:12.96
Boyertown 8:11.63
Mount Lebanon 8:11.45

With a two heat set up, the odds say that at least one team from the slow heat will slip onto the medal stand. Last year, funny enough, it was Bishop Shanahan who won the slow heat and grabbed some medals. This year, I think it is more likely to come from a team outside District One. Personally, I think LaSalle will likely leave off Addison (and potentially Boyle) from this 4x8 and focus on the 4x8. They are still pretty dangerous (they’ve got a lot of pieces in the 2:04 range), but I don’t see them contending for a medal.

I really like the western teams. Mount Lebanon has been consistent all year and finally dipped under the SQG once they got the right competition (from a talented Indiana squad). I could see Lebo continuing to shine as they get their first real opportunity to run on a fast track. They were in this race a year ago which also gives them an edge in experience. Plus, they likely still have a bit of a chip on their shoulder after XC. Twin Valley out of District 3 is another team that has strong pieces. Dylan Servis is a great star with sub 2 ability and this team impressed at the Meet of Champs when they finally got that SQG to punch a ticket to states.

Of course, there will be a strong D1 contingent in this race. Radnor has two stars in Brown and Zeh. If the other legs step up, then this team will be near 8 flat. Boyertown is another team that I’ve been watching closely in 2018. They have a lot of talent including Josh Endy who has been down near 2 minutes often this year. Bensalem and CB South have each won state titles in the past and Penn Wood is a developing power with a potential star on the rise in Gaymore. They’ve got raw speed that no other team has.

Heat 2
DT West 8:09.50
CB East 8:08.53
GFS 8:07.59
Abington 8:07.41
Pennridge 8:03.98
CR South 8:03.88
Ephrata 8:03.62
CB West 7:57.74
Bishop Shanahan 7:49.37

As I’ve discussed before, I don’t see Shanahan stacking this relay. With Josh Hoey’s Mile-800 double looming, I doubt he would be featured on this relay. I’m also skeptical that Jonah Hoey will be included although it’s definitely possible. If they feature Jonah along with Yoquinto, Penney and McGrory they may still be the favorites for gold.

However, I think CB West is the team to beat. Not only are they all in on the relays, but they are super talented. Brian Baker is a star. Luke Fehrman can drop a 1:56 at least. I’m not sure what kind of shape Claricurzio is in, but when he’s at his best, there’s only a handful of guys that can keep within spitting distance. This program has proven they know how to put it together for the big races and they’ve got at least two, likely three, guys on the relay who are already state champs after last outdoors.

After these two, it’s hard to know which other squads will crack 8 minutes. Ephrata is a team I’ve talked about a lot, but are they ready for this moment? They have some state experience from last spring, but their best runner is only a sophomore. Can they handle the pressure? If they bring their “A” game, this team may win the whole thing.

Abington and Pennridge are yearly powers. Abington has a great 1-2 punch in Mitchell and Coleman (both could be sub 2 guys), but Pennridge’s is even better. If Matt Eissler is included on the relay (and I think he will be) then they have two sub 2 minute guys in the Eissler’s. The Rams were quiet early, but they’ve caught fire in recent weeks including a big win at Meet of Champs.

CR South lost their best runner from last year’s sub 8 squad, but they may be deeper this year. Collin Ochs and Andrew Zawodniak have been on fire as of late. GFS was second a year ago in a sub 7:50 time. They may have lost their two big names, but that doesn’t mean this team is finished. DT West isn’t a traditional 4x8 power (I think of them more as a DMR squad), but they’ve quietly developed a nice middle distance core over the past few seasons. Their DMR didn’t end up making the cut for states this year so they will have to be all in on this relay. I think an all in CB East team could make a nice run at a sub 8 kind of time, especially if Endres is ready to roll on the anchor leg with his 1:55 speed. However, I’m not sure what their intentions are as they have two relays and Endres in the open 8. They may hold him out of this one (they are deep enough to be under 8:10 without him if things click).

Predictions
Shanahan could definitely win this one, but there are a few too many questions heading into this race. After seeing them win the slower section without Josh last year, it’s clear this program is deep (and knows they are deep) so they may believe they can score big points here without either Hoey (but definitely without Josh). That leans me towards CB West.

I will say that I really like Ephrata’s squad. I’m not sure they are deep enough to match up with the middle legs from West, but if Shue and Baker get it together, I’m not positive Baker wins it (as good as he has been this year).

1. CB West 7:52.50
2. Ephrata 7:54.98
3. Pennridge 7:57.32
4. CR South 7:59.47
5. Abington 8:00.11
6. Shanahan 8:03.64
7. Mount Lebanon 8:04.92
8. Radnor 8:05.76

No comments:

Post a Comment