2018 Indoor State Championship Preview: 800m

800m

The Stage

If things hold to script in the Mile, Josh Hoey will enter the 800 with history on his mind. The defending 800 champion is seeking to win both the mile and the 800-the first such achievement since Wade Endress in 2011 and just the second time it’s been done since 1992. Hoey enters with a season best well ahead of the rest of the field (he’s the only one under 1:55 with his 1:51), but he will have tired legs from at least one race prior to this one. Those tired legs could leave him vulnerable to a challenger-a slew of relative unknowns have dipped into the 1:55s this season and are hungry for more. And, oh by the way, the 800 has three heats, each with high upside kind of guys. That could lead to some madness across the board.

Heat 1

Matt Wehrle, Punxsutawney 2:00.42

Tyler Wirth, Wallenpauack 1:59.78

Dylan Servis, Twin Valley 1:59.56

Jarrett Zelinsky, HG Prep 1:59.29

Hudson Delisle, Quakertown 1:58.77

Nick Gabrielli, Kiski 1:58.59

Collin Ochs, CR South 1:58.45

Seth Phillips, Mifflin County 1:58.37

There’s usually at least one guy who pops off a top 10 performance from the first heat, but who seems most likely to do it? At least a few names from this heat will enter the race on the double: Wirth from the mile, Ochs and Servis from the 4x8. As I’ve said before, I am always wary of guys doubling off earlier events as state races can take a lot out of you. That being said, we saw Liam Conway a year ago double between the mile and 800 and leave with medals in both events. Another talented junior with good speed (Wirth) could end his state meet the same way if things click.

The most logical names from this heat to me for a breakthrough are Delisle and Zelinsky. Delisle has run 1:52 and was third at states a year ago, kicking to a win in the 2^nd of 3 sections. However, Delisle hasn’t raced much since the early season so it’s unclear just how sharp he is. Meanwhile, Zelinsky is a relative newcomer to the 800, but he has great speed. He’s been gaining confidence in recent weeks, holds a sub 2 best and vaguely (very vaguely) reminds me of the Sam Ellison story. I could see him popping a 1:57 and winning this heat.

Heat 2

Lamaj Curry, Chester 1:58.22

Ethan Zeh, Radnor 1:57.94

Michael Clark, Methacton 1:57.53

Javier Linares, Pennsbury 1:57.36

Jarnail Dhillon, Upper Darby 1:57.29

Brett Zatlin, Great Valley 1:57.13

Matt Eissler, Pennridge 1:57.03

Aidan Sauer, Pennsbury 1:56.68

At least one runner from this heat will medal. That’s what history tells us and, unsurprisingly, I tend to side with history. I’m even more confident in that prediction based on the fact that this heat is pretty stacked. First of all, you have two Pennsbury runners in this heat in Javier Linares and Aidan Sauer. After Pennsbury surprisingly scratched the 4x8, these guys are suddenly fresh, fearless contenders who are all in on this event. If memory serves, Linares went out near 25 seconds at Ocean Breeze a few weeks back during his 1:57 run. Assuming he is bold enough to push the pace early again (perhaps with Sauer accompanying him) this race could be fast enough for a 1:54 winner which, in my eyes, has got to get you at least top 6.

Beyond the Pennsbury duo, I think Matt Eissler and Brett Zatlin will contend for the win in this heat. Zatlin is fresh and seems ready to roll after his multiple 1:57-1:58 times this year. He could pop one this weekend. Eissler may have the 4x8 already in his legs, but he’s a returning state medalist in a program that knows how to produce 800 stars.

The deep sleeper would be Ethan Zeh of Radnor. Not only has Radnor become something of a mid distance power (Holm, Kelly, Cooke all excelling in recent years), but Zeh is fresh off a massive 1:58 run at the Meet of Champions (winning the slow heat if memory serves). I think Radnor will make a push for the medals in the 4x8 so Zeh might be tired out, but the junior shouldn’t be counted out of this field.

Heat 3

Robert Dupell, St. Joe’s Prep 1:56.41

Jonah Hoey, Bishop Shanahan 1:56.11

Tyler Shue, Ephrata 1:56.01

Kamil Jihad, Neumann Goretti 1:55.43

David Endres, CB East 1:55.05

Collin Ebling, Pottsville 1:55.03

Liam Conway, Owen J Roberts 1:54.41

Josh Hoey, Bishop Shanahan 1:51.49

I think between my posts thus far I’ve said enough about Hoey’s credentials. He’s a super talented runner who could potentially end the winter season with state records in the mile and 800. He’s got a big advantage by seed time in this race, but he’s going to have to produce with tired legs. Unlike Endress who doubled or tripled at nearly all major championships in his career, Josh doesn’t have a history of marquee doubles. It doesn’t mean he can’t do it, but it does mean we could see a surprise in this. If somebody makes him work in the mile, that will add even more stress to this 800.

The other thing I feel compelled to bring up is Tom Mallon in 2010. Mallon was the defending 800 meter state champion as he entered this race his senior season. He was by far the most accomplished 800 guy in the field and he had already split sub 1:50 the previous outdoors. However, Mallon was doubling off a mile victory earlier in the meet and took a passive approach to the 800 on tired legs (he was also slated to run the DMR). As a result, the pace lagged too much in the early stages of the fast heat of the 800 as everyone simply defaulted to Mallon and he didn’t have it in him to take on the pace. That left the door open for Luke Lefebure to steal the state title from the second of three heats in a surprise upset. Maybe that happens here with the top two seeds (Conway and Hoey) both doubling and other guys being more of the kicker type surrounding them.

As alluded to, Liam Conway is doubling off the mile, but that doesn’t mean he can’t contend. He’s very familiar with this double from a year ago. Of course more than just the top seeds are doubling. David Endres and Tyler Shue are likely both doubling off the 4x8 (although I’m not 100% positive we see Endres on that relay). Jonah Hoey may also be doubling off the 4x8 although my current speculation is that we see him fresh.

It’s a younger, more inexperienced field out front as Shue and Jonah Hoey are both just sophomores. Jonah nearly made the outdoor state final last year as a frosh so he’s poised to run above his age, but we don’t know quite as much about the emerging talent of Shue. David Endres completely skipped the 1:56s (and most of the 1:57s and 1:55s) with his massive PR at Ocean Breeze this season. Was that a flash in the pan or is the junior ready to join the state’s elite? Robert Dupell was #3 in the state at 400, but chose to throw his hat in the ring at the longer distance. Will that prove to be the right move? Does he have enough 800 experience to hang with this group?

But the two most important names in the gold medal hunt are Kamil Jihad and Collin Ebling. Jihad has championship pedigree. He’s run 1:52 for 800 and taken state medals in his last three trips to states for track. He’s also coming off an impressive XC season that included a surprising (to me at least) state medal at Hershey. It seems like he has more strength than in year’s past and he’s very confident in his ability to close. Plus, I think Jihad has been kicking himself for almost a year after just barely missing out on state gold in AA at 800 last spring. He’s ready for this chance at redemption.

Ebling is a wild card, but a wild card who has proven himself. He was excellent last year in District 11 at both 800 and 1600 (where he made states), but couldn’t put it together in Shippensburg to make the final. He’s taken gradual consistent steps forward this year, winning a key race at Kevin Dare and also showing real strength at the over distance with a top flight mile result and a great 1k. He seems hyper focused on this race and poised for an upset.

Predictions

Although I floated out the Tom Mallon comparison, I think this Hoey performance is more likely to be reminiscent of Sam Ritz in 2015. Ritz won the mile with a blazing 4:09 and then doubled back to run 1:51 in the 800. That kind of time wins almost every year-he just ran into the best 800 guy we’ve ever seen in John Lewis. Ritz was strong and fast and that’s how I see Hoey being for this race. He’s not a lock, but I think he gets the job done.

As for the race behind him? I’ve got no idea. I think any combination of guys could fill out the medal stand with basically everybody in the field looking dangerous. Keep a good eye on Heat 2. They could steal the show.

1. Josh Hoey 1:52.96

2. Jihad 1:53.88

3. Sauer 1:54.85

4. Zatlin 1:55.57

5. Jonah Hoey 1:55.62

6. Ebling 1:55.73

7. Eissler 1:55.81

8. Curry 1:56.50