2015 PTFCA State Championship Predictions: 3000m

3000m
Heat 1
Dom Hockenbury, Lake Lehman
Matt McGoey, North Allegheny
Casey Comber, Horsham
Will Loevner, Winchester Thurston
Hunter Wharrey, North Allegheny
Todd Gunzenhauser, Mt Lebanon
Jack Tidball, Tunkhannock
Aaron Gebhart, New Oxford
Jacob Heinauer, North Hills
Paul Power, Spring Ford
Colin Abert, Easton
Jake Susalla, Plum
Alex Knapp, WC Henderson

The 3k and Cross Country usually correlate quite well. The skill sets overlap nicely and often times the people tough and crazy enough to run well at XC states end up gravitating to the 3k. The reigning XC champion has competed in the indoor 3k 4 times in the last 8 seasons and came away with two golds. Footlocker Finalists have won 4 of the last 8 titles and the remaining 4 title runners were 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th at AAA states.

So when analyzing this year's 3k field, it was no surprise to see a large amount of XC talent on the roster. Matt McGoey is the top runner from AAA states to opt for 3k after finishing 4th at states. He is joined by the 5th-6th-8th-11th-12th-17th in AAA, the District 3 AAA champ, the AA state champ and the A 4th place finisher. That's a talented group of kids.

Dominic Hockenbury comes in as the top seed in this race after being the top PA finisher at 2 of the 3 best 3k fields the state assembled. He has run 8:38 this year, placing him about 8-10 seconds ahead of his closest rivals and he already holds two career state golds as just a a junior. Hock someone managed to fly under the radar this past XC season, thanks to a flurry of fast times, an excellent AAA field and Griffin Molino being Griffin. But Hockenbury was able to dominate practically ever race he laced up for against PA competition within the last 10 months. And half of that was as a sophomore finding his footing among the state's elite. This is the ultimate opportunity for Hockenbury to show just how good he is. There can be no one who says, "well does that state title even count since it was AA?" if he takes this gold.

But the title is far from Hock's, even after arguably his three biggest competitors scratched for the DMR. Casey Comber was PA's best XC runner when we hit the end of November, as the Hatboro Horham senior did something that state champs Sam Hibbs and Conner Quinn never did: qualified for the Footlocker Finals. Since then, Comber has had an incredible season, running 4:22 and sub 8:50. He's running better right now then Sam Hibbs (eventual indoor 3k runner up), thanks in part to some epic duals with Jake Brophy. I'm going to miss seeing those two together at states, but I'm not sure Comber will. 

Much like Hatboro Horsham, North Allegheny has a rich history in cross country and the longer distances. In 2011, Ryan Gil brought NA a long awaited team title and then won the indoor 3000m. Could McGoey do the same? Seriously though, I need to can it with the Gil comparisons. McGoey has carved out an excellent legacy for himself, running sub 15:50 at states, leading his team to gold at states, running 9:12 last spring and now concluding his second straight season as the unquestioned #1 runner in the WPIAL. He dominated a 3k that included 5 other state qualifiers this past weekend in 8:46, perhaps earning himself favorite status for this Sunday. 

The field goes deep this year, all 13 runners are under 9 minutes coming in and each has serious potential to drop. Will Loevner has run under 8:50 this year as well and won another incredible WPIAL 3k just before MoC. Loevner was the runner up in the AA 3200m last spring and he too led his team to state gold this past XC season (Winchester Thurston turned into one of the best small school teams ever in a span of two weeks when everyone returned from injury. It was unreal). 

Hunter Wharrey, McGoey's partner in crime, is well under 9 minutes this year for 3k as well. He has battled well with guys like Heinauer and Gunzenhauser as well Jake Susalla, who comes in a bit of the others seed times, but gaining momentum quickly. 

Burdette champions Paul Power and Colin Abert will try to recapture that December magic in this race. Power will have his work cut out for him as he tries the difficult mile-3k double, but he is a strong tough runner. Abert has had his fair share of ups and downs the past few months but one thing is for sure: the kid is a huge talent. If he has the right day, he will leave lots of runners shaking in their boots.

Alex Knapp, Jack Tidball and Aaron Gebhart round out the 13 man field. Knapp's SB dates all the way back to Yale and he hasn't touched the 3k since. That may mean he has the potential to surprise. He has been working on his speed recently for the DM and that may pay off as he moves back more into his comfort zone at 3000. Aaron Gebhart is a strong runner in the midst of his first real indoor season. He always seems to run tough and is out for redemption after his state meet in cross. Last is super sleeper Jack Tidball. He very quietly ran 8:52 in a low key meet (pulling his teammate to an awesome 9:02 as well). Tidball was 9th at AA states and has knows #1 seed Dominic Hockenbury well from their XC days. He will be pursuing a top spot and Tunkhannock legend Reece Ayer's 3k finish/time. 

The simple fact of the matter is, there are only 13 guys in the field. So everyone is in the medal hunt. And clearly based on what I outlined above, everyone is talented enough to earn themselves some hardware.

Here's what worries me a bit. There have been a lot of 3ks run in recent weeks (as necessitated by the new qualifying system) so guys have been running a lot lf 3ks back to back, which scares me. Three or four hard 3ks in a row really worries me, so we will see how all of that fatigue effects the runners this weekend.

As far as I'm concerned, this might be the most compelling series of story lines of any race. I think the title is going to one of Hockenbury, Comber or McGoey. Each has such a fascinating plot line for why they are due/deserve this title. All three have been on a roll for months, dating back really to the Summer. I literally haven't been able to pick. 

Ultimately, I'm making the brutal decision to pick CC for the win in a thrilling race. I think it's just his time. All the battles with Brophy and hard fought seconds have made him a better runner. He likely learned a lot about himself from his Footlocker experience as well. The Norris comparisons are there (although I'm not expecting the 8:20s mark that Norris posted).

Plus, if things come down to a sprint finish, his 4:22 run at Last Chance gives me some confidence in his speed (although McGoey likely has some speed up his sleeve). Comber's training seems to line him up nicely to pop somethig this Sunday.

I got Hock holding for two and McGoey three, but that's brutally interchangeable. It was hard to pick between all of these guys. 

After that I think Gebhart is most likely to sneak in and break up the top group. He's a bit fresher without as many hard 3ks, plus he has shown steady improvement. Plus Caleb Gatchell pretty much had me wanted to elect him president, so I'm rooting for the Geb. Shamelessly bias as usual.

Here's how I see the full medalists breaking out:

1 Casey Comber 8:35.42

2 Dom Hockenbury 8:36.10

3 Matt McGoey 8:36.88

4 Aaron Gebhart 8:48.21

5 Colin Abert 8:49.70

6 Jake Susalla 8:52.73

7 Alex Knapp 8:54.11

8 Todd Gunzenhauser 8:55.91