Qualifying Countdown

Update as of 9:12 PM: As of now I believe all results are in which means the ranking lists that are linked below are (as far as I know) complete and up to date. If you want to know what I am predicting the state meet will look like in an abridged post check that out here. If you want to see the complete rankings/projections, click on the events below.

I'll be trying to keep this up to date for everybody keeping track. I've updated my lists through the State College Invite and taken my guesses on who I think will scratch. My cut off times for states are currently as follows (all times are converted to banked marks):

800m: 2:00.49
Mile: 4:32.01
3000m: 8:54.88
4x800m: 8:11.94
DMR: 10:49.29

I've got links to the full lists for viewing if you click on the events above. I've bolded those I think will run and italicized those I think will scratch. Some really tough choices. Any thoughts, opinions or live updates from the meets are always appreciated.

In the meantime, I'll do some analysis below so that you can get a peak at what I'm thinking (now updated for TSTCA).

TFCAofGP MOC
The greatest series of letters in indoor track took center stage this weekend over at Lehigh for what was expected to be an entertaining battle of top tier teams putting the finishing touches on their state qualifying resumes. The meet started exactly as it had the previous two years: with O'Hara grabbing a dominating victory in the DMR. The O took home the win in 10:28 giving them a PA #1 time heading into the state championships, if they choose to pursue the DM (something they haven't done each of the past two years). However, I'm thinking this may finally be the year. With most of their pieces looking better over longer distances (James, Morro, James) and the 800m firepower not quite there, I think these guys may finally pass on the 4x8 and go for the DMR at states. This could have quite the ripple effect considering James is among the leaders at both the Mile and 3k, but probably has a better shot at gold in the 3k. It's unclear how he will balance these competing interests going forward, but we will know by tomorrow.

Huge run for Bonner to grab second in 10:48 and cement a spot for themselves at states. I thought they were a nice sleeper pick going into the race and they really came through (even though few other teams put the "A" team on the track I was expecting, making it trickier to run fast). CR South was third in a solid 10:54, but there state spot (as of 2:42 PM) seems safe barring something crazy at TSTCA. Other than that no teams cracked the 11 minute barrier, which I found surprising. It appears that a few teams either passed on the DM completely or had tough days after a stretch of brutal cold and snow.

Interesting to see CB East not drop anything crazy in either relay and also pull Brophy and Shahideh from the opens (Boucher runs only the open 4). I suppose they are resting up for states (logically) with all their qualifiers safely in hand, but this still leaves me completely in the dark about what they will pick to run. Currently, I've flipped back to Brophy in the 3k and 4x8, but it's purely unsure speculation.

In that mile that didn't feature either Brophy or Comber (likely ran a strong leg on Horsham's Heat 1 winning DMR that ran a strong 11:04), Sam Webb took over and lowered his mile time another few seconds down to 4:22. That's an excellent time for Webb who finds himself right in the thick of that Post-Ritz chase back that is getting stronger with every week (more on this later). In second was Julian Degroot-Lutzner who barely edged out Eric Diestelow, both men around 4:26.  That lean could make all the difference for who is in the fast heat and who is not at states (depending on the scratches) as I currently have these two slotted at #9 and #10. Sophomore Liam Galligan continues to impress, fighting his way to 4th and lowering his own seed time for the mile (currently at #11 on my board). Huge runs by Kirshenbaum (good shot at getting in now) and Tucker Desko (may just be able to sneak his way in) who both ran huge PRs to get themselves into the conversation. With the right scratches both men (and Jon Perlman who finished directly behind them) could all be booking a hotel this week.

Brief note, John Lewis was beaten today in a surprise upset by stud Andrew Dillon from Norristown (who just ran a fast 200m two days prior) in the 400m. Lewis ended up 3rd overall (Conway was 2nd from heat 6 of 7) and maybe he now has a bit of doubt in his mind about the 400m. It's good news for distance fans who are hoping to see Lewis hop in the loaded 800m and try and mix it up for state gold. It's now more in play than ever (and I'm currently predicting it will happen). We will see. (Worth noting, a likely pissed off Lewis probably dropped a huge split on Cheltenham's epic meet record 3:23 4x400m at the end of the day. That's awesome).

Meanwhile, another 800m standout, Alek Sauer, my early pick for state gold at 800m, ran a fantastic 1:55.70 today. But that performance was only good enough for silver. Billy McDevitt, who ended up running fresh in this 800m after all, soared around the track in 1:55.16 to beat out Sauer for Gold in a surprising upset of his own. This is huge for McDevitt, who now sits only behind Graca, Lewis and Ritz in the state, despite the fact that he has excellent strength and his best event is likely the mile. McDevitt is probably going to stick with the mile at states (and watch out for a fast time in that event), but he has to at least consider the 800m looking ahead (and maybe even consider a mile-8 double?). Regardless, you have to be a fan of the season McDevitt is putting together and that Malvern Prep DMR (who got a nice run from Addison Mueller in the 800m spot, running 2:04.0).

Strong runs by Wolfinger and Williams for 3rd and 4th. Both guys should feel good about those times and could be medal contenders next weekend at states (although Williams may pass in favor of the 4x8). Noah Falasco and Phil Colbert ended up lowering their seed times for states by an important few tenths of seconds. That may make all the difference as I currently have both guys getting in (although Colbert is still around the bubble depending on if I was too generous with scratches). Strong run by McClellan from St. Joe's Prep to win the slower of the two sections. He and Isiah Fisher will be key in Prep's quest for gold in the DMR. Also have to give credit to Eric Kersten from Pennsbury. He ran 2:03.0 today in the 4x8 despite the fact that I'm not even sure he is in their top 4 relay guys (they have a lot of talented mid-distance runners). That's awesome for the sophomore.

The 3k ended up with a few more scratches than I thought (perhaps the recent flurry of fast times was too discouraging) and john Daly was able to run away with the title (yes the lowercase J is on purpose). Daly ran 8:58 today to beat out JDL on the double from the mile (9:03) and a slew of solid PRs for a lot of hardworking guys from around the league. Daly's time, amazingly, probably is still 3+ seconds slower than what it will take to qualify for states in this event (stunning to me), but that probably doesn't matter. I suspect Daly was running the mile next weekend regardless and taking the long rest to prepare for a huge anchor leg in the DM.

Impressive doubles for JDL and Eric Diestelow (9:04) who once again went toe to toe in a close finish. I really like seeing the strength Diestelow has developed in the longer distances and he could run a very 3200m outdors. Lutzner has excellent range (probably going to run the mile and 8 at states plus he has this 3k ability). Huge runs by the sophomores McMenamin and Paul (9:05 and 9:08) from Souderton and LaSalle. D'Aquila from Lower Merion, another soph, had a huge day in his own right, running 9:10 (didn't see that coming). Add in three sub 9:12 guys from CB East (none named Brophy) and it was a fantastic day for a lot of guys.

I have to give a big shout here to Sands, Goetz and Wood after what was likely their last race of the season. CB East had a tough break at Districts this year after having an excellent cross country season. But these guys came back with a vengenance this indoor season and consistently produced impressive DMRs despite the fact that Brophy and co. weren't included. Awesome job by this team, I'm a big fan.

The distance side finished with an absurd 4x800m relay. With the DMR something of a let down from a deep field perspective, the smart money said the 4x8 would produce some killer performances. And that smart money was indeed right. LaSalle, sub 8 this year, appeared to have saved their pieces for the 4x8 (another trend that I mentioned in my preview, much like O'Hara's approach to the DMR). They clocked an impressive 8:08.20, but it was no match for the victorious CB West squad (8:05, massive season best) who also appeared to have saved their legs for the end of the day.

This is a huge run by West who beat LaSalle and Pennsbury (likely with 2-3 key legs doubling), two teams that are among the state leaders. CB West has always had the pieces for an exciting 4x8 and I was admittedly surprised they waited this long to unleash it. That being said, I don't think I saw this 8:05 coming. I'm not sure if they will choose the DM or the 4x8 for next weekend (I'm leaning 4x8 after this performance), but I'd imagine regardless they will go all in with fresh pieces and chase a title. Watch out for these guys, they are gaining rapid momentum similar to their previous 2 sub 8 relays and they have an excellent reputation at this event.

This is the part of the report where I get both happy and sad at the same time. There were some phenomenal performances following the big names out front as Neshaminy (8:11), Wissahickon (8:14), The Haverford School (8:14) and Bishop Shanahan (8:18.0) all ran well under the old SQS and dropped their seed time for states substantially. Plus all those squads beat what was likely a fresh Bensalem squad (8:20). However, it appears (based on my calculations) that Bensalem at 8:11.94 is going to be the last team in to states and Wissahickon is currently slotted as my first team out (absurd). I'm hoping this field somehow gets expanded, but ultimately it looks like some incredibly high quality teams are going to be sent home. And that really makes me uspet. As projected, 8:11ish seems to be the cut off for states barring some unexpected scratches.

That being said, all these performances were awesome. Neshaminy will get into states and may even be able to turn some heads. They are gaining momentum and I've been a huge fan of their team since December (I think Marrington is a real strong piece). Wissahickon, my sleeper team for a long time, has been steadily improving behind a strong stretch run by Kyaunde Johnson (1:58 split at Last Chance) and I haven't exactly been secretive about my respect for Bishop Shanahan's work this season. The Haverford School also had a fantastic day and you have to admire a borderline individual qualifier like Alex Kim making a sacrifice for the good of the team.

TSTCA MOC
Weather made travel conditions a little tricky for the teams out West, but it appears most (if not all) of the top competitors were still able to make the trip to Edinboro for one last shot at state qualifying. For some, this trip was incredibly important to securing a spot and these kids proved every tenth of a second counted in the Mile and 800 as the drama brewed throughout the day.

Nick Wagner eliminated his borderline status quite quickly in the 800m, running a blazing 1:58.07 to surprise a field that included Elias Graca and Michael Strosko. Brett George from Altoona in his second race in three days dropped a 1:58.80 for second and slightly lowered his seed time for states. The Altoona crew is dangerous for states, but they did a surprising amount of racing this weekend. I'm unsure if they will double up or stay fresh for the 4x8, but they have some decisions to make certainly. Duwon Terrell of Penn Hills, Trey Quealy of Norwin and Skylar Scholl of Ringgold all dropped a bit more time off their 800m seeds to put them in a position to ride the bubble for qualifying. Terrell even cracked 2 minutes for the first time this season, making him very competitive for a qualifying spot (I'd be quite surprised if he doesn't get in).

In the mile, the field (that included Altoona's Brad Foust who ran 1:56 on Thursday) was bested comfortably by Seneca Valley Junior Mike Kolor who ran 4:25. Although this is technically one of Kolor's slower times on the year, it's a comfortable and convincing win that should give him confidence going into what is rapidly becoming a loaded state race. Foust hung tough for second after his blazing race on Thursday and will have some tough choices to make looking ahead to states with a 4x8, the open 8 and the open mile all potentially on his agenda. Sebastian Curtin dropped his mile best to 4:31.0 for the year and put himself in the thick of things for a state qualifying spot. Strong races were also run by Nick Wolk (4:32.2), Tanner Quiggle (4:32.7) and Josh Rader (4:33.6). Seneca Valley had an excellent showing with Quiggle and Kolor running so well and it was good to see Bryce Benjamin in action as well. Keep an eye on this team's 4x8 this coming outdoors after their excellent year in 2014. Butler is a nice sleeper in the 4x8 as well with Rader leading the charge nicely and two other legs at around 4:40 in today's race, including XC frosh stud Beveridge. They also had a 2:03 leg in the open 800m (Brandon Critchlow).

The 3000m was awkward for me. I realized I've been making a terrible, terrible mistake. I've completely forgotten about Matt McGoey! The North Allegheny stud who I had been (perhaps unfairly) comparing to the likes of NA greats Gil and Steiner in prior years, has suddenly become underrated (by me). I underrated him during XC (when he finished 4th in a loaded year) and I've been overlooking him in the 3k title conversation for months. He solidified his worth with an 8:46 victory at Edinboro in a loaded field that included his teammate Hunter Wharrey, Will Loevner and Todd Gunzenhauser, all sure fire state qualifiers in the 3k already. Strong run by Junior and XC medalist Jake Susalla from Plum who dropped another 7 or so seconds from his best time this year, running 8:57.0. Amazingly, that time probably isn't getting into states this year, but I'm pulling for Susalla to somehow crack the field. He's had a fantastic season and should be a force this outdoor season (the WPIAL is really loaded, especially when you throw in Delaney, Perretta, VanKooten, etc.). Strong 9:08 and 9:10 runs for Shane Burkhardt and Ethan Linderman as well.

Altoona won the 4x8 and the DMR in addition to their individuals running in the 3k, Mile and 800m. They ran impressive times as well (8:21 and 10:58) just a couple days after killer days at PSU (described below) so these results were surprising. I'm very interested to see how they bounce back from the killer week, but also interested to see how their 4x8 does. If they decide to load up a fresh squad (which would mean scratching likely individual qualifiers Foust and George plus possibly Stroh) they could turn heads in a loaded 4x8 (emphasis on loaded. It's more stacked than books in a library).

Miscellaneous Action
At State College, we saw another big win from Matt Wisner of Carlisle, who is having a phenomenal season. Wisner could be a serious threat in either the 8 or the mile at states (and I'm thinking he enters both). That being said, in year's past Carlisle has opted not to enter anyone at the state championships, even though they have had qualifiers like Brehm and Hurston so there is a chance that we won't see Wisner's name on the entries. That being said I really hope we do because the kid can fly. Wisner beat out Alex Milligan who bolstered his mile time slightly running 4:27. Milligan has been excellent at the mile and 8 this season, but there is a chance he may pass on the individual events for the SC 4x8. That 4x8 got a big boost from recent PRs in the open from Nick Feffer and Eric Heatwole (2:00 and 2:01) plus a surprise emergence by senior Bryan Quinn (2:02). They also have Tony Delergis on the roster who has down near 2 minutes this season, meaning they once again have 5 impressive 800m legs on the roster. That makes them a contender for states in a loaded 4x8.

At the low key Baptist Invitational, we saw a killer 3000m race from some of PA's best under the radar studs. Jack Tidball, who had run a few sub 9:10 3ks this season, had a huge breakthrough performance running an 8:52 and surprising his way into the state 3k field (as of 3:27 PM). That's a huge day for him and bolsters an already amazing field (his performance may have just knocked out Colin Abert). Killer runs by Jacob Toczko (huge 9:02 PR) and Seth Slavin (strong 9:05 run) ended up 2nd and 3rd in what I can only imagine was a fantastic race. Even though neither time is expected to crack the top 12, both times are awesome and are fantastic exclamation points to their seasons. Slavin's teammate Khai Samuels, currently among the top seeds at 800m, won the 400m and the 800m at the meet, beating out Nate Morgan and Mark Arzie in the later event. The times were around 2:03, but that's a strong debut for the Lakeland boys who always seem to find themselves in the hunt for a AA 4x8 title.