Heat 1
O'Hara
St. Joe's Prep
Conestoga
GFS
Malvern Prep
DT West
CB East
Bonner
CR South
WC Henderson
Twin Valley
CR North
My love for the DMR is well documented. Perhaps it is the enigma that is the 1200m. The new, rarely run event that adds an intriguing new dimension to the traditional relay race. Maybe it's the power of the anchor leg who has so much time to try and run down the other squads and change the game. Or quite possibly, it's the simple fact that I came from a DMR school. From 2007-2009, Upper Dublin High School took 4th-4th-1st at the State Championships in the DMR and added a Penn Relays title for good measure. Watching those races (because trust me I wasn't good enough to run on them) gave me a unique appreciation for the event. And naturally, my bias has come out in my writing.
This race has all the makings of being epic. On paper, it reminds me a bit of the 2011 State Championships. 2011 wasn't exactly what I would call a loaded field, but it had a selection of 13 very good teams. The winning time was only 10:28 (Wissahickon got the title) and 8th place was 10:35, only 7 seconds back. 2nd through 4th was separated by 0.64 seconds. Want to know something interesting? Take a look at these names from the state championship DMRs of recent years:
2008: LaSalle, anchor leg Dan Lowry 4:12 PR, not PIAA
(FYI GFS won Penn Relays that year with indoor mile champ Max Kaulbach)
2009: Upper Dublin, anchor leg Mike Palmisano 4:13 PR, outdoor state champ 1600m
2010: West Chester Henderson, anchor leg Will Kellar 4:12.00 PR, outdoor state champ 1600m
2012: Great Valley, lead off leg Ned Willig 4:11.99 PR, indoor state champ mile
2013: LaSalle, anchor leg Tom Coyle 4:11.97 PR, outdoor state champ 1600m
2014: West Chester Henderson, lead off leg Tony Russell, indoor state champ mile
That's right folks 2011 is the only time where a state champion caliber miler was not running the 1200m or 1600m leg of the state champs for the DMR (now to be fair the eventual state champ in the 800m ran the 1200m leg, but he never ran faster than 4:20 for 1600m). The 2011 Wissahickon squad was an excellent team, but they also had a perfect storm of events. They got their anchor a lead and there wasn't another game changing anchor close enough to catch him (Chris Campbell, 4:14 man, came close but couldn't get there).
Now you might ask, why do I bring this up? Well, simply it's because I'm trying to figure out who is going to win the DMR state championship this year, and I'm trying to decide if Stoga, GFS, St. Joe's, DT West and others have the game changing piece to be state champions? And if they don't, do they have enough to be a 2015 version of Wissahickon?
The strongest argument for O'Hara or CB East or Malvern Prep to win the title is their anchor legs. O'Hara has Kevin James who has already produced two of the most impressive anchor legs of the year for OH. Brophy's ability is well-documented at this point and although I wouldn't call him a game changer in the mile just yet, I truly believe it's only a matter of time before he becomes one. I also think McDevitt has the potential to at least achieve Chris Campbell level success in the mile (4:14ish at 1600m and 3rd at states indoors). Those guys are the three biggest names I can find on the list. But they are also all going to be doubling.
In fact, CB East has Boucher, Shahideh and Brophy all scheduled to run individual events before coming back for the DMR. Brophy experimented with the 1200m last week at MoCs which could mean East will try a Brophy-Boucher-Shahideh-Sands/one of the Josh's approach to this year's DMR. Wills and McDevitt are both in line for the Mile-DMR double, but there is lots of time there to recover.
For O'Hara, they will be fresh with the exception of James, but can the supporting cast keep James in contention? Keep in mind that James apparently split 4:13.2 last weekend, meaning he probably put about 20+ seconds on almost everyone else in the field during his leg. That implies his other legs were relatively even with the field prior to the anchor leg. A field that didn't include many of the top teams like Malvern Prep, Conestoga, St. Joe's Prep and GFS. But O'Hara has an excellent miler in Rob Morro who can keep the team in the hunt on the lead off leg. He has run 4:32 this year and he will be critical to positioning the team properly to keep them relevant until James can get the stick. The 800m leg will also be important. O'Hara ran sub 8:10 earlier this year so they have pieces, but it's not been clear who is at or near the 2:02ish average they produced at the Armory. 3:15-52-2:02-4:15 adds to 10:24 for the sake of reference, a time that I think would be good enough to win gold this year.
I really like Conestoga's squad this year and I am thrilled that they decided to go all in for the relay. When I predicted that Murray, Marston and Nelson would all scratch out of their events I wasn't sure if I was being too bold. But clearly this group is about the team first and foremost and that attitude will be crucial to a successful run at states. Because that's thing about Stoga, they have a very strong overall team. I'm assuming Murray runs their lead off leg, so he will have the job of staying at or near the front. Their 400m leg is probably a tad below average (they've been running distance man Jimmy Cooper in that spot recently, but he has been developing really well in that role lately) and then they give to Killian Nelson on the 800m leg. That's going to be the key moment. Nelson needs to have a big day because most teams weakest link sits in that spot. This is where Stoga can break the race open and get Marston some cushion for a run to the finish.
And let's not sleep on Marston. The guy's a total gamer who showed up big time at States and Districts in Cross Country. He had a fantastic season (15:40 at Hershey, sub 15:20 at Lehigh in subpar conditions) and now has been working hard to improve his speed for this race. I don't think he needs to be a 4:15 type guy to get his team the W, but I'd imagine he will definitely need to be under 4:20. He hasn't run that kind of mark yet this indoors, but I believe he has that in him. 3:12-:54-1:57-4:19 gets you to 10:22 without decimals for the sake of reference.
GFS and Malvern Prep are built fairly similarly, although MP will be running on more tired legs. Hepp and Dahl will provide serious firepower on the end legs for GFS who held the state lead briefly early this year after Yale (they beat Stoga by a pretty wide margin there). Hepp is a nice combination of speed and strength and Dahl is a beast who split 4:18 at Yale and ran 8:44 for 3k the next day. The 800m leg has likely been a point of emphasis for GFS as they hope to improve that leg a bit to round out the relay. I love that Dahl and his team decided to scratch a big time 3k to chase a gold medal in the DMR, but keep in mind this is still a young team. Dahl's just a soph and Hepp is a Junior. Last year this GFS team struggled on the big stage at states. This year I'm hoping they are ready to bounce back form that. 3:11-:53-2:06-4:18 is 10:28 without decimals.
Malvern Prep has two excellent legs in Wills and McDevitt who I really like in this race. This squad had an ok showing at last year's championships in this event, but I think they feel they can do better this year. I'm sure gold is in mind and Addison Mueller's 2:04.0 is huge for this squad looking ahead. King is also a great 400m runner in his own right who may be able to give the team a bit of an edge. We will see how much Wills and McDevitt have left in the tank for the DM, but they do have a long spot of rest. I could see them finding a way to get into the 3:12-:51-2:03-4:17 range, that's 10:23 without the addition of change.
You can already start to see how huge a big leg from Killian Nelson would be for Stoga.
The team that you have to keep an eye on is St. Joe's Prep, who held the PA #1 spot up until it was taken by O'Hara this past weekend at MoC. This Prep team is excellent, led by john Daly who split 4:17 for this squad earlier in the year. Prep has Isiah Fisher and Stephen McClellan, both of whom have hovered around 2:02ish this indoors, and they have an excellent 400m runner which could pick up a few seconds. In my opinion, the key for this team will be the 1200m leg. Whoever runs it has to keep this squad up near the front and out of trouble so that they can let Daly do work on the anchor. Daly gave up his shot at individual glory in the mile in hopes of earning a gold medal with his brothers in the DMR so I hope that decision pays off for this team. I'm not sure exactly what kind of 1200m split this team has in them but 3:15-:51-2:00-4:17 doesn't seem too far fetched (that's 10:23).
DT West could be another surprise team. Their end legs are sub 4:30 guys and they too are completely fresh. They have a strong 400m leg and they have proven they can perform under pressure at states before in cross country. They are still a very young team that probably will have a freshman, a sophomore and a junior running the key distance legs. That may be an issue at states, but DT West hasn't been too concerned about the youth movement so far. Serious question (and this might be absurdly far fetched) but is there any chance Jaxson could come back for this race? I seriously doubt it, but how crazy would it be if they added a potential sub 4:20 leg to the back end of the relay?
Bonner, CR South, CR North, Twin Valley and West Chester Henderson round out the field of 12 in the DMR. Each of these teams has a chance to be in the medals, even if I don't believe they have serious hopes for gold. Bonner had an excellent race last weekend and seem to have the most positive momentum going into states. Sullivan and Rastatter have been excellent end legs and Cromity is coming along nicely as well. CR South's end legs are two of my favorites from this indoor season, Maguire and Hanna, and they have some strong pieces they can fill into the mid legs as well. They have hit a bit of a cold stretch in recent weeks, but I think they have the best potential of this next group to surprise. CR North will hope for a big leg from XC state medalist Brian Arita who decided to stay fresh for the relay. Twin Valley will be led by Coakley and the Gearys in pursuit of a state medal and West Chester Henderson will try to use their strength runners (including what will likely be a doubling Alex Knapp) to compete for a top spot.
Ultimately, you heard me rattle off a lot of splits, but those don't mean as much to me as what my gut says. And right now my gut says just punt and pretend like you are too busy and don't make any predictions at all instead. This is another really tricky one to call. In the end, I just have a feeling in my gut that makes me pick the way I do. So here it is:
1. St. Joe's Prep 10:24.35
2. Conestoga 10:25.09
3. O'Hara 10:26.75
4. Malvern Prep 10:26.90
5. GFS 10:28.79
6. CB Eat 10:33.56
7. DT West 10:36.92
8. CR South 10:40.33
(For the record, I think there is like a 50% chance that Brophy just goes crazy this weekend and CB East finds a way to win this race too. But all the doubling worries me and the fact that I just don't know what they are capable of in any sort of relay scares me off from picking them too high. Hopefully that doesn't come back to get me).
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