Carnival Preview: The Mile

Kevin Dare is usually one of the biggest meets of the year for the District Three teams during the indoor season. But unfortunately weather prevented a variety of teams from competing on the fast track and decreased the overall competition for those teams who did manage to make the trip. One of the men most affected by this was Lower Dauphin's Sean Weidner. The 20th place finisher at this year's state championships in cross country ran strong at the LVC invitational, but missed out on what was probably his best chance to grab a 4:25ish time that would put him in position for a trip back to states. Now the pressure will be on guys like Weidner to drop a fast time and get a spot in the top 20. The toughest part is that even after the race finishes, it doesn't appear there is another meet on the schedule for teams like this, meaning there will be an agonizing wait to see where the rest of the chips fall.

As of now, my rankings indicate 4:32ish will be the last time in, but I'm predicting that standard makes a huge drop in the next two weeks down under 4:30. That means Sean Weidner, Matt Kravitz and Kevin Lapsansky will have to be on their "A" game this weekend. I think all three men have the potential for a big breakthrough, especially the first two. Kravitz had a fantastic XC season, as highlighted by his performance on the grass track at Lehigh, where he broke 15:40. He was a low 4:20s man a year ago (as a soph) and looks to return to states for the second straight indoor season like Weidner.

From the Philly Area, Eric Diestelow will look to continue his strong season in the mile. He has run a lot of miles this year already, including one last weekend. The WC East camp knows that this event is Diestelow's best and they are taking no chances as they try and assure he is not just in the field on March 1st, but also in the fast heat. He's the most seasoned of the competitors in this race and that probably gives him favorite status. I currently have him as the 10th state qualifier (i.e. last man in the fast heat) so he will need to continue to drop time to assure a spot among the speedsters.

Jon Perlman made an impressive return this past weekend, running 4:31 and putting himself right smack in the middle of state qualifying. With the rust buster out of the way this past weekend, Perlman is in excellent position to continue to drop time in the mile in this excellent invitational. I've been on the Perlman bandwagon for some time (I draft him on my fantasy XC team in 2013) and I think last week may have been a sign of big things to come.

I'll admit it. I'm not sure I've given PJ Murray proper credit this season. He has done a fantastic job in the mile with multiple sub 4:30s and has excelled in the DMR (likely in the difficult 1200m role). Murray is a legit state medal contender (I currently have him slotted as the 8th fastest time out of those entering the race) and this carnival race may end up being a "if you run fast enough, you run the open mile, if not we are going fresh in the DM" type of day.

Some other interesting story lines here: Michael Geiger from Parkland, Morgan Cupp the frosh from Mechanicsburg, Conan Beckley-Gray from Strath Haven, Jimmy Cook, Dan Filler and many more are trying to drop time and make noise in this event. One of my big sleepers is Jonah Gillespie-Sickman from Harriton. He was excellent during cross and has run some solid 3ks, just hasn't managed to get in a fast race to get a fast time. This may be his shot. Ryan Paradise and Nicholas Sperger are also names worth mentioning in this event. Also Jacob Toczko of Tunkhannock.

Just everybody. Look out for everybody, these kids can run.

Predictions

1. Weidner 4:27.62

2. Diestelow 4:28.01

3. Kravitz 4:28.85

4. Perlman 4:28.90

5. Murray 4:28.95