2015 PTFCA State Championship Predictions: Mile

Heat 1
Colin Wills, Malvern Prep
Sean Weidner, Lower Dauphin
Scott Seel, North Allegheny
Jeff Kirshenbaum, Methacton
Jon Perlman, Lower Merion
Sebastian Curtin, Mercyhurst Prep
Tucker Desko, Pennridge
Khai Samuels, Pleasant Valley
Adam Rabon, Hershey
Cooper Leslie, Camp Hill 

Heat 2
Sam Ritz, GA
Kevin James, O'Hara
Jake Brophy, CB EastSam Webb, Pennsbury
Billy McDevitt, Malvern Prep
Mike Kolor, Seneca Valley
Kyle Shinn, Wyomissing
Paul Power, Spring Ford
Julian Degroot-Lutzner, Masterman
Eric Diestelow, West Chester East

In 2008, I attended my first ever State Championships as an alternate for Upper Dublin's DMR team. Back then I was basically just hitting my stride as a huge track nerd, so being at the state meet and seeing all the runners who's times I obsessed about in person for the first time on the state's biggest stage was an experience I will never forget. The first distance event of the day was the mile and after they finished the 60m dash, everyone rushed forward to get the best position possible to watch. The slow heat was a nice opening act for a fantastic final that included Max Kaulbach (a two miler moving down in distance), Vince McNally (the 2007 outdoor 1600m state champ) and Nick Crits (the eventual 2008 outdoor state champ). The pace dawdled early, leading McNally to oblige and go to the front, only to be hawked down over the final lap. In a surprise turn of events, the strength man Kaulbach outkicked the speedster Crits for the state title (although, not to make excuses, I'm pretty sure Crits was sick that weekend. He was very un-Crits like). It was a fantastic upset that made me immediately call one of my friends at home who, obviously, didn't really care.

Kaulbach was an independent league runner from Germantown Friends School. The next year, a pair of independent leaguers took 1-2 in the mile as Ivo Milic-Straklj won from the fast heat and Matt McCullough from Malvern Prep nearly stunned his away into the state title after winning the "slow" heat. But since then, no independent leaguer has been able to lay claim to the throne and quite frankly, no one has been particularly close. 

This season, however, the independent league has found itself a great hope for the state title. Sam Ritz of Germantown Academy comes in as the top seed by roughly 10 seconds over Kevin James. 10 seconds! Not only that, but Ritz's 4:10.50 mark is the fastest the state has ever seen for an indoor mile. He's also run under James's seed time something like 5 times already this year and showcased his impressive speed with a 1:52.81 back in December.

Ritz is arguably the third heavy favorite in the past 4 years in this event. Ned Willig was a large favorite over the field in 2012 (and he won by a reasonable margin) and Tony Russell was another easy pick at gold in 2014 (and he won by his own impressive margin). Both men chose a different approach to their title bout. Willig decided to run conservative for the first 800m and then take over. He threw record talk out the window and saved his energy for the DMR (which Great Valley won, thanks mostly to Ned's jaw dropping 3:00 split at 1200m). Conversely, Russell went after the record from the gun, still ended up with Gold and settled for barely missing the record. He too came back to run a strong 1200m leg on a state championship relay (although it wasn't quite as fast as Willig's unreal performance).

Ritz will have to carefully choose which strategy he wants to emulate. He has run with confidence all season and I'm sure the record is something very important to him as he enters this race. That being said, he has also done an excellent job closing races quickly (1:57 close at the Millrose Trials) and seems more than willing to use his kick to get the Gold, especially considering he's signed up to toe the line in the 800m soon after the Mile.

Realistically, Ritz's massive advantage in seed times is not truly representative of the stacked field he will have to vanquish if he is to become State Champ #66. Jake Brophy is undefeated this season and recently showcased excellent speed handing off in first place at MoCs in both the lead off 4x800m leg and the 1200m leg of the DMR for Central Bucks East. Plus Brophy is the defending cross country state champion, a title he won in impressive fashion, smashing the previous course record in the process. Thinking he won't at least be a factor in this race seems foolish. 

Alongside Brophy in seed and potential, is Kevin James from Cardinal O'Hara. He too was excellent during Cross Country, breaking the old course record at Hershey with his 15:38. Last spring he ran 9:03/4:12y/1:55, meaning he has the range to excel at any event the indoor state championships offer. Throw in a reported 4:13.2 DMR split at Meet of Champs, and James is poised for a push of his own to become LXVI. Both James and Brophy decided to sacrifice what was likely their best shot at Gold in the 3000m for the mile so they could be better rested for the Distance Medley Relay at meets end. I respect both runners willingness to be team oriented (especially James who is now a Senior still searching for state gold), and I'd like to see it pay off for them with a title run.

But the field goes even deeper than these three (although they are undoubtedly the three biggest and most polarizing names). However, these two names may have the best shot at pulling off the upset this Sunday at PSU. That would be Billy McDevitt from Malvern Prep and Sam Webb from Pennsbury. Both of these guys are running phenomenally right now. McDevitt quietly had one of the best Cross Country seasons in the state and followed it up with a key mile win at Kevin Dare in addition to a strong showing at Yale, the night after he anchored the squad's DMR. Since then, he has opted to work on his speed, knowing he would have to deal with Ritz's fast closing ability at the state championships. It's paid off. McDevitt dominated a league meet 800m and followed it up with an impressive win over Pennsbury's Alek Sauer (1:52.61 split this year) at Meet of Champs (running 1:55.16). He seems poised for a massive PR in the mile and may have enough to take down Ritz.

Sam Webb has been on a roll of his own. Webb rested a bit in the early season after a long XC season while his Pennsbury teammates stormed out the gate. However, once Webb started racing he quickly proved he was in excellent shape. Webb's best event is probably the 3k/3200m (he ran 9:08 for 3200m last spring), but he has shown impressive speed early and often this season. He split 1:57 (at or around his PR) on a couple early relays, anchored Pennsbury's then PA #1 DMR, closed a mile in flats in 2:04 and then added a 1:55 split and 4:22 mile to close things out. Webb is in an absolutely loaded class of Seniors (I mean seriously, he ran sub 15:50 at States and was outside the top 5 at states) so he often gets overlooked, but no one can sleep on Webb this weekend. 

Behind this top 5, is a slew of other talented runners. Kyle Shinn has had an excellent season, including a great run at Kevin Dare where he landed his 4:25 seed time. Eric Diestelow has run a variety of sub 4:30 miles in the past month or so, including a win at the PTFCA Carnival meet. Julian Degroot-Lutzner finished a fraction of a second ahead of Diestelow at MoCs and has also run 1:59 and 9:03 this year, rounding out a strong resume. He can have success in any type of race.

In a bit of a surprise turn, Paul Power decided to try the mile-3k double this weekend. He has run some excellent miles (including a win at the Burdette Invitational in December and a win against Kyle Shinn in a 1600m) and also has proven his strength with a sub 9 run. Power also ran a solid early season 800m going head to head with Matt Wisner (PTFCA Carnival 800m Champ). 

The real sleeper here could be Mike Kolor from Seneca Valley. He is coming off a dominate victory at the TSTCA meet of champions, had a strong run at the SPIRE Invite, down around 4:22 for the 1600m, and also clocked an excellent time at Yale earlier in the season. I get the impression that he is sitting on a break-out performance, similar to the race he unleashed at states last year. Keep in mind as just a sophomore, Kolor split around 1:56 on last year's 4x8 team and has rapidly been gaining momentum and confidence since the closing meets of cross. He was also here last year running a pair of events so he is experienced on the state stage.

Odds are the slow heat will produce a medalist or two. Most years a few guys can sneak into the medal picture (Jeff Groh did it a year ago I believe and as mentioned above Matt McCullough got 2nd out of the slow heat in 2009), but this year is going to be difficult because the event is so stacked. Scott Seel won both of his races during the TSTCA regular season for North Allegheny (but I didn't see him in the results for their meet of champions). He also was a heartbreaking 26th individually in cross country (a pain likely eased by his team champion medal) so he has the extra motivation needed to sneak onto the medal stand. Also worth noting is Groh's old teammate Sean Weidner who ran a strong race at the PTFCA Carnival a few weeks back, finishing second to Diestelow. Weidner was a medalist during cross country and qualified for the state championships last year indoors, giving him a strong extra layer of experience.

Also slated to be in the slow section are Colin Wills, Jeff Kirshenbaum, Jon Perlman, Sebastian Curtin, Tucker Desko, Khai Samuels, Adam Rabon and Cooper Leslie. Rabon and Leslie just competed at this track last week, giving them a nice close to home comfort level. Curtin, Desko, and Kirshenbaum all had clutch races this past weekend, which earned them their state spot. That means these guys can perform under pressure and are peaking at the right time. Perlman is rounding into shape well after some injury trouble during cross. Samuels and Wills may be the most talented guys in the field. Wills is currently in a position to be the top seed in the heat, a tricky spot to be in. He has to balance the desire to get a fast time and compete for medals with the pressure of trying to lead a heat from the gun. It's important to keep things as a race rather than a time trial to have maximum success. Samuels is an excellent 800m man, as evidenced by his 1:57 from this past December. He had a solid mile indoors at the Armory last month and is looking to use his speed to help run down some of the other talents in the field.

Now time for the tricky part, using all of this information to put together some bold predictions. Heat 1 should be exciting and a medalist may come out of it, especially because Heat 2 might be a grueling enough pace that a person or two just can't handle it. Heat 1 also has the benefit of throwing tactics out the window. They only get medals if they run fast enough times, so things should be quick from the beginning and runners will be able to work together to try and clock a 4:20ish time (usually the cut off for 8th is in the low 4:20s).

But Heat 1 is extremely talented. I see this race being quick. I'm not totally convinced Ritz wants to lead it from the gun, but I do believe that between Ritz, Brophy, McDevitt and James, this thing won't lag. People know about Ritz's speed and the other strength guys likely won't want things to dawdle too long and play into his hands. Considering the depth and the talent of this field, I think the state record is in serious jeopardy. 

Ultimately, when I make my predictions I'm looking for proven guys, guys with the right amount of momentum and talent. Those are the three factors I consider most strongly (plus I do try and consider how the race itself will play out). Keep in mind in my predictions for 2015 post, I picked Kev James to win the Mile. Last year in my predictions for 2014 post I picked Kyle Francis to win the 800 and that ended up being true .... so do I trust myself to be right again?

Here's the thing: I'm usually wrong. It seems silly to pick anyone other than Ritz in this spot. He's been racing top fields across the northeast for months and holding his own at every race. He has the speed to close but the strength, the PRs and the confidence to win this sort of race, regardless of how it unfolds. 

But somehow I keep coming back to Brophy. I've been a fan for a while (I actually picked him to win states last indoors in the 3k when he was just a soph, probably jumped the gun a bit on that one), and you have to respect his ability to rise to the occasion in the big moment. He already has state gold around his neck and he already holds a state meet record this year from cross. Why not one more?

Ultimately, here are my picks for the 8 medalist positions:

1. Jake Brophy 4:13.27
2. Kevin James 4:14.05
3. Sam Ritz 4:14.89
4. Billy McDevitt 4:16.40
5. Sam Webb 4:18.25
6. Mike Kolor 4:18.71
7. Julian Degroot-Lutzner 4:21.55
8. Scott Seel 4:21.89