Heat 1
Pennsbury
Penncrest
LaSalle
CB West
State College
Pennridge
Abington
Strath Haven
Neshaminy
Altoona
Bensalem
Wissahickon
In 2008 I predicted North Penn would win the state title. It wasn't too tricky considering they were arguably the biggest favorites in state history. In '09 I picked CB South (another easy one), in '10 and '11, I picked CB West over Abington for the upset (in 2010 I had it flipped, in 2011 I got it right), in 2012 I had Penncrest over Pennridge (ended up Pennridge over Penncrest, one of my all time I knew it but didn't say it moments), in 2013 I had Henderson (they got 2nd) and in 2014 I had State College. So clearly I've had some good fortune with the 4x8 predictions over the past few years.
I'm not saying this to brag, I'm saying it to try and maybe win some respect from you before I completely whiff on my predictions for this years's round of relays. Like seriously, I have no idea what to do with this year's 4x8 field. But, seeing as I have a blog devoted to this sort of thing, I guess I have to try. So let's break down the teams.
Pennsbury comes in as the clear cut best team by time in the state. They have run a flurry of top notch 4x8s including a 7:51 at the Millrose Games. When they have put a fresh relay on the track, no other PA team has been able to keep it close. However, when they have doubled their key legs (Webb and Sauer) the door has creaked a bit more open for a possible upset. But it is important to remember that Webb has proven he is an excellent doubler and Sauer is one of the best 800m runners in the state. Between Yeger, Mulvaney and Kersten, Pennsbury has three extra legs they can plug in at or under the 2 flat mark. If Webb and Sauer can average 1:56 between the two of them, we are looking at a 7:50-7:52 type relay, much faster than any other team has run this season.
Besides Pennsbury, Penncest and LaSalle have also broke the 8 minute barrier as a relay this year. Penncrest has been a consistently strong both indoors and outdoors for the better part of a decade, but they have come up just short in their hopes for gold. Their best shot prior to this year was likely 2012 where Pennridge surprised for the title in an upset Penncrest had to settle for Silver. Maybe this is the year that Penncrest is able to get over the hump. As for LaSalle, they have grabbed medals consistently in whichever relay they choose to pursue. This year is expected to be no different as they boast a very well balanced attack in the 4x8. Both LaSalle and Penncrest have opted to keep their relays completely fresh in pursuit of the title. That could be the difference in what is expected to be a tight race.
There hasn't been back-to-back state champions in the 4x800m since 2007-2008 when North Penn took home the honors. State College has decided to go all-in on their title defense this season, saving their entire squad for the relay. Alex Milligan leads the charge, but this is still a completely different line-up from the one that won gold in 2014. However, this team has five runners who have run around 2:03 or faster this year, including a couple at or under 2 flat. On their home track, they have an excellent chance at defending their title.
The team that unseated the last "almost" back-to-back champs was the 2011 CB West team that stunned most with their 7:45.06 at states. The time was roughly 15 seconds faster than their seed mark from Glenn Mills. This year's 2015 CB West team was running around 8:20ish for most of the year before popping off an 8:05 4x800m and winning the Meet of Champions race at Lehigh this past weekend, catapulting them into the state title talks. Rock Fortna has had a fantastic season and he will look to continue the momentum, leading the squad at states. CB West also has a completely fresh squad slated to compete on Sunday. I'm noticing a trend.
A rapidly developing sleeper team is Altoona. They have run "just" 8:11 this season, but they have yet to run a relay with the degree of freshness expected from this squad. Brad Foust has already run 1:56 this year (he will be doubling), and Brett George has run 1:58 multiple times. Those two combined with Dom Stroh (4:31 miler and split 1:58ish last year at Penn Relays) sets the team up for their second straight sub 8 minute 4x8. They too should have a nice fan showing to rally around towards meets end.
I see these teams as the most likely squads to crack 8 minutes, but any of the 12 squads entered might be able to get there. Pennridge, Bensalem and Abington are both former state champion schools at this meet and have clocked sub 8:12 marks this year. Pennridge is doubling their best runner in Dan Williams, but Abington should have a completely fresh squad led by Neely and Good. It's been a while since we've seen either team at full strength in the 4x8, but the potential is there for both teams to return to their form of old. Bensalem is looking to bounce back after a tough run at the Meet of Champions. They have Ramirez, Mays and Shah on the roster, all hoping to chase a sub 2 mark. Strath Haven had a balanced approach of near 2 flat guys that go them down to 8:08ish already this season. With a few breakthroughs, this team can be on the medal stand as well.
Neshaminy and Wissahickon are the last remaining teams in the race after they jumped a few squads at Last Chance to earn their spot in the loaded 4x800m. Wissahickon has been helped by Kyaunde Johnson's emergence as a sub 2 leg (1:58.3 last week), but also has state qualifier in XC Lukas Marcelis and emerging young star Christopher. Andy Harmon's continued improvement has been the difference between a state team and a bunch of spectators. Neshaminy has been known for it's 400m prominence for much of the year, but this go round the team showed it's stuff in the 4x8. Dave Marrington has been a strong leg all season and Neshaminy has quietly excelled in this event.
As mentioned, with just 12 teams on the line, any of these squads could break through for the title (statement is even more true when talking about medalists). It's very up for grabs. I've gone back and forth on these predictions a variety of times. I think there are a lot of teams with excellent balance. CB West, Penncrest, Pennsbury, and LaSalle may finish the day with 4 guys sub 2. State College and Altoona have a great chance to do that as well with a few small PRs. I'm certainly a little concerned about the tired legs of Pennsbury chasing the title against so many top notch fresh relays.
The key for a Pennsbury win is their two relatively unknown legs. Webb and Sauer will be tired. They won't be able to carry this team around the track on their own so it will be up to Mulvaney and Yeger to keep the team in the mix. I think they are both very capable of doing this, but it is a solid amount of pressure for these runners.
I am a huge fan of this CB West team. I've been very close to picking them for the win about five different times during this post, but can't seem to pull the trigger. I loved what I have seen from them in the relays this year and with a fresh team on the track, they will give Pennsbury a real scare. That being said, I can't bring myself to pull the trigger. I'm worried they may not have the power to match up with Sauer and Webb if those guys are near their best and they may be a year away from the top spot.
Penncrest and LaSalle both have their own impressive one-two punches looming on fresh legs. Emmanuel and Komat will go for Penncrest and LaSalle boasts Sutton and Grant. I like Emmanuel and Komat a bit better given that the 800m is really their sweet spot. That being said, I think LaSalle has a better 3-4 punch in Price and Challingsworth. But will that be enough to beat the Penns?
State College and Altoona both have excellent squads. I think I would have a bit more confidence in a fresh Altoona squad, especially if Uliano can better his 2:03.9 from last week. I'm a big fan of George, Foust and Stroh who all have sub 2 potential in this race. But with their best leg on the double, I can't bring myself to pick them for the title. SC is an excellent squad, but they too may be a year away. Milligan has been excellent this season, but I'm thinking the winning team's anchor will have to be at least 1:56 and that might be out of his range right now.
Only time will tell exactly how this race plays out, but in the meantime here's my gut instincts on how things will unfold.
1. Pennsbury 7:52.87
2. Penncrest 7:54.05
3. CB West 7:55.18
4. LaSalle 7:55.94
5. State College 7:58.91
6. Altoona 7:58.99
7. Abington 8:01.55
8. Strath Haven 8:06.99
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