12 accepted entries, Bold accepting, Italicized scratches
1 Dom Hockenbury 8:38.39' Lake Lehman
2 Kevin James 8:39.86* O'Hara
3 Nick Dahl 8:44.12' GFS
4 Jake Brophy 8:44.41* CB East
5 Casey Comber 8:47.95* Hatboro Horsham
6 Will Loevner 8:49.59* Winchester Thurston
7 Hunter Wharrey 8:50.24* North Allegheny
8 Todd Gunzenhauser 8:50.88* Mount Lebanon
9 Andrew Marston 8:51.47' Conestoga
10 Matt McGoey 8:52.36' North Allegheny
11 Aaron Gebhart 8:54.40* New Oxford
12 Jacob Heinauer 8:54.66' North Hills
13 Paul Power 8:54.88* Spring Ford
14 Colin Abert 8:55.09* Easton
15 Andrew Hanna 8:56.10* CR South
16 Brian Arita 8:57.29* CR North
17 Colin Wills 8:58.16' Malvern Prep
18 Alex Knapp 8:59.13' WCH
19 Billy McDevitt 8:59.78* Malvern Prep
20 Julian D-Lutzner 9:02.53* Masterman
21 Joe Maguire 9:02.85* CR South
22 Sean Princivalle 9:03.67* LaSalle
23 Jake Susalla 9:04.35' Plum
24 Nathan Henderson 9:06.43* JP McCaskey
25 Tyji Mays 9:06.58* Bensalem
26 Jack Tidball 9:07.27* Tunkhannock
27 Jerrod Sunderland 9:07.64' Altoona
28 Connor Sands 9:07.64* CB East
29 Nate Becker 9:07.97* Ephrata
30 Seth Slavin 9:08.01'** Pleasant Valley
For a brief stretch, the 3k was looking pretty tame. I had high expectations for the event, but at the beginning of the season, I saw a lot of potential scratches and 9:05ish was making it into the state title match. Well, that's over now after the bombshells from the weekend. Comber and Brophy got things going in the first post-Yale runs and then McGoey and the western trio from this past weekend (Loevner, Wharrey and T Gunz) solidified. Now all of a sudden when you throw Gebhart, Heinauer and Hanna's recent strong showings into the mix, things are looking positively deadly.
Currently I have 8:56.10 as the last time in (meaning an 8:57 time would miss and the 8:59ish marks seem doomed). I also have Brophy, Dahl and Marston (top 10 guys in the event) scratching out in favor of the relays. Guys of this caliber with these kind of title hopes are rarely seen exiting stage left in this event. Which means we could be seeing a phenomenal field that realistically includes only under 8:55 guys. And there is still a weekend to go for someone to sneak in (although how many people can be left with 8:55 chops?).
Although I have Brophy scratching (and James in), I'm not confident in that choice (I just switched strategies about a day ago). Jake would be my pick to win the title this year if he runs this event fresh and there's a part of me that just really likes the idea of Brophy and Comber doing their thing and running to a 1-2 finish. The way this year has gone anything else just seems like a sad trade off.
Regardless this field is set to be really strong and quite wide open as well considering how much talent is involved. The west is set to have a fantastic showing and they still have some bubble guys like Susalla and Linderman who may be able to find a way into the picture. I imagine that Ryan James and Sean Princivalle will be gunning for a fast time at MoCs along with Ian Davies, Tyji Mays, Connor Sands, Connor McMenamin, Joe Maguire and others. CR South is particularly in a dicey situation as they have Hanna on the bubble here along with MaGuire close to striking distance, but also have a DMR that might need a second or two more time off their seed to get in.
I believe Knapp is not qualified for MoC in the 3k, so he can only get in by scratching at this point which is crazy to me considering his ability and his time from Yale. If the WCH DMR gets bounced, they may end up with no distance guys at the meet.
There's still wiggle room for this 3k, but it's going to be very tricky for anyone to break through into relevance against this kind of line-up. Even Paul Power and Colin Abert will be stuck at home (don't think either squad has a meet remaining), sweating out the final week of the season, hoping that no one squeaks by. That speaks volume about the quality of this field.
I really wanna see Power get it. He's run well all season except for one race. I think if that kid gets in, which I think he will, hell really make some noise at states.
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