2015 PTFCA State Championship Predictions: 800m

800m
Heat 1
Dan Williams, Pennridge
Derron Terrell, Penn Hills
Connor Holm, Radnor
Noah Falasco, Upper Merion
Quentin Francis, Neuman Goretti
Ata Shahideh, CB East
Alex Lindsey, Upper Moreland
Kevin Hong, Upper Darby

Heat 2
Michael Strosko, Canon-Mac
Matt Wisner, Carlisle
Nick Wagner, Penn Trafford
Brett Wolfinger, Quakertown
Brook Wilson, Central York
Kamil Jihad, Chester
Julian Degroot-Lutzner, Masterman
Andrew Koryak, Vincentian Academy


Heat 3
Sam Ritz, GA
John Lewis, Cheltenham
Elias Graca, Fox Chapel
Alek Sauer, Pennsbury
Dylan Eddinger, Boyertown
Brad Foust, Altoona
Khai Samuels, Pleasant Valley
Brian Hackman, St. Joesph's Academy

Last year I sat in a classroom at Muhlenberg College and watched a live webcast of the state championship (big shout to ForrestCRN for the hookup). I've had the priveldge of watching a variety of state championship runs, mostly on TV or online, but the 800m races indoors and outdoors in 2014 may have been the best I've ever seen. It's important to note that I myself am I former 800m runner and so I naturally love the event. Kyle Francis is probably the 2nd best 800m runner that I've seen come through the state (behind Tom Mallon) and he had two of the more gutsy performances I've seen in any event at those two state championships. Throw in Wiseman and Logue, two other all time greats, and then fields with guys like Smart, Cather, Brehm, Sauer, etc. and you have some all time great races. Naturally, I thought that was the peak, that those races were as good as it gets. But that doesn't seem to be the case anymore.

The final domino fell neatly into place for a fantastic state title bout in the 800m this past Saturday. Defending state champion in the 400m John Lewis had an uncharacteristically off day in the open 400m and ended up third. Obviously Lewis could run better and still would likely be the favorite in the 400m at the state championships; however, this race made it obvious to Lewis and his coach that his best (and possibly favorite) event was the 800m. So with that in mind, Cheltenham decided to throw 1:50.01 man John Lewis (who has already run 1:52.8 and split 1:51 this season) into the open 800m. Not only is the state title race now much more interesting, but the state record suddenly appears to be in jeopardy for potentially the 6th straight season. 

But nothing will come easy for Lewis this weekend. For starters, Sam Ritz will be toeing the line (off the double from the mile) and he currently holds the fastest time in the state this year at 1:52.81, in a race where he found the gears to outkick Lewis to the line and grab gold. With the mile in his legs and a likely grueling double looming, it's going to be tough for Ritz. The last person to pull of the double successfully, did it about as well as you could: Wade Endress took double gold back in 2011, running his 800m final in 1:51.7.

In addition to the two 1:52 men, Pennsburg's Alek Sauer and Fox Chapel's Elias Graca are both poised for a state title run this season. Graca is in the middle of a fantastic winter that, if not for an unfortunate lap counting moment, would have been an undefeated stretch in the 800m. Graca is looking to break a huge drought in the indoor 800m for the western squads, the WPIAL hasn't captured a title at this event in roughly a decade. Graca's 1:53.1 from the SPIRE Invite is technically the fastest time in PA this year (as in 2015). 

Alek Sauer has been the star of Pennsbury's excellent 4x8 this season, anchoring the relay in 1:52.61 a few weeks back. Sauer was an outdoor individual medalist at 800m last season, a fact no one else in the field can boast. However, Sauer will have something to prove on Sunday at PSU after falling to miler Billy McDevitt at the Meet of Champions 800m. With the quality of the field, Sauer's closing speed could be important, however he will need to survive the fast early pace expected thanks to Lewis's apparence.

Don't sleep on Dylan Eddinger ladies and gentlemen. Eddinger has steered clear of the open 8 since his 1:56.61 at F&M (an excellent time for that track). Keep in mind he dominated that race on a slower track than many of the other top seeds ran their bests. Shawn Wolfe had his big race at F&M around 1:58 or so in 2013 and then dropped down around 1:55 when he landed in the hot heat at PSU. 1:54 or even 1:53 is not completely out of the question for Eddinger.

Brad Foust made the decision to drop the mile (an event he excelled in at Kevin Dare) in favor of the 800m after he won in impressive fashion at state college invite (1:56.5). He has the strength to hang tough in this race based on his XC credentials, but will need to prove his speed a bit more after his first breakthrough last week.

Rounding out the hot heat are Khai Samuels and Brian Hackman. Samuels ran 1:57 early in the year (December technically) at Burdette, going toe to toe with Alek Sauer. He's been quite since and has chosen to try the mile-8 double like Ritz, a risky move certainly given how fast this hot heat may be taken out. Hackman boasts a 1:57 time from SPIRE as well and has made huge strides this season after an excellent cross season. He's run a variety of races at PSU tracks this year which should give him nice comfort level here. However, he's a bit unpoven against this crop of top tier names. He will look to change that this weekend.

1:56ish is usually strong enough to keep you in the hunt or medals and most of the time multiple hardware earners are found in the slower sections. Similar to the mile, people in the slow heats have all the incentive to chase a fast time and throw tactics out the window. That could be huge this weekend.

In Heat 1, Dan Williams from Pennridge could be a sleeper. He's run sub 2 minutes a few times this year and is running in an excellent system over at Pennridge. Connor Holm had a big day in the slow heat last season, earning a medal for his efforts. Both guys are dangerous. Also keep an eye on deep sleeper Ata Shahideh from CB East. I like his potential if he can handle the big stage. He has already beaten Williams once this season and really hasn't had a chance to show off in the open events in a long time. 

In Heat 2, Matt Wisner jumps out as a name who could pop off a huge race. He has been consistently winning against solid fields, including a mile win last week and an 800m win at PTFCA just before. He chose to focus on just one event, the 8, and I think that choice may pay big dividends on Sunday. Also sure to compete well from this heat are WPIAL men Mike Strosko and Nick Wagner. Wagner just won the triState title in 1:58.07 as just a sophomore. Strosko ran one of the fastest times of the year at the tricky to pace Edinboro track. Andrew Koryak is a AA medalist last outdoors who also can run strong for the WPIAL. Don't sleep on Brook Wikson either. He's run very quickly from the slow heat before, and this time he's slotted to see top notch competition, unlike the Carnival heat he dominated earlier. Heat 2 is loaded and I'd be very surprised if they don't produce at least 2 medalists in the overall standings.

The most likely candidates, in my opinion, to emerge from Heat 2 with medals are Matt Wisner and Brook Wilson. I'm on the Wisner bandwagon this season and think he could really fly in the right race. Wilson's potential intrigues me considering his fastest time came almost completely uncontested. The WPIAL crew is dangerous, by I think Wagner may be a year away. Strosko and Koryak are just behind Wilson in my eyes, but they could easily flip that script.

I've gone back and forth on my fast heat predictions, as I think this race could be one to remember. I'm leaning towards a big bounce back race for Lewis after a disappointing run at MoCs. He has the hunger and motivation to make the stadium quake cheering for a record run. He has the best overall speed and the best PR by roughly 2.5 seconds counting his 1:50.01 from last summer. 

But I'm a bit worried about Lewis and very intrigued by the potential of Graca. He ran fantastic at the SPIRE meet and has his own disappointment to overcome this weekend. If he can hang tough with Lewis and run fearless, I think he can pull of the W.

Sauer is a true danger for the title as well. He has a fantastic close in him I'm sure. That being said, the last time he came to this meet he finished out of the medals, disappointed. He's hungry to change things and is a lot stronger than he was last year at this time. 

Ritz has a grueling double on his plate. He could prove me wrong and shove two golds in my face this weekend based on his out of this world talent, but I'm my sure he has an Endress like day in him. Ritz is faster than Endress, and fresh may be able to run 1:51 or faster, but Wade was an animal on that day in 2011. A pure freak performance and a truly absurd doubler during his career. Plus he had the hometown crowd on his side in Altoona.

Ultimately, I think the pace is quick early, but Lewis falls off a bit late, leaving the door open for Graca to steal the win. A hard closing Sauer makes up enough ground to sneak out 2nd.

1 Elias Graca 1:52.60

2 Alek Sauer 1:53.49

3 John Lewis 1:53.60

4 Dylan Eddinger 1:55.11

5 Matt Wisner 1:55.79

6 Sam Ritz 1:55.92

7 Brook Wilson 1:56.65

8 Nick Wagner 1:56.99