Going into the Meet of Champions, the DMR seemed to be the most potentially exciting event. There were (and are) a ton of teams that had the potential to pop a fast time at this race, plus there were a ton of top tier teams that had shied away from the DMR in recent weeks, seemingly waiting to unleash during this moment. The performance list has certainly done little to change my opinion (and I’m assuming this is not a “no scratch meet”, otherwise some entries strike me as odd to say the least). So let’s take a look at what should be a thrilling start to TFCAofGP MOC #50.
First thing worth noting is always the omissions, although there aren’t many here. The teams from the top of the rankings that are MIA at this race are mainly teams that never bothered to qualify for MoCs in the event. Those would be GFS, Conestoga, Pennsbury, Penncrest and Henderson among others. Stoga and GFS are comfortably into states at this stage, while Penncrest and Pennsbury have given every indication that their focus will be the 4x800m. Henderson is the only squad left sweating it out for a spot, currently sitting at #13 with some likely scratches ahead of them.
St. Joe’s Prep also appears to have chosen to pass on the DMR, comfortable with their 10:29 seed time that is currently PA #1, and is all but assured a place in the top 12. Another surprise worth noting is Bishop Shanahan choosing to scratch. BS ran a strong 4x8 at the last chance meet and appears to have decided that event is their best chance of qualifying for states. Their 10:59.01c currently sits 23rd in the state and is expected to miss the state qualifying conversation by at least 10 seconds.
Beyond those exceptions, the most exciting and intriguing DMR squads will be toeing the line. It’s unclear exactly who will be racing an “A” squad based on the entries but after the top 4 teams mentioned above, 13 of the next 16 fastest teams in the state are entered in the event with another 6 or so teams with reasonable hopes of dipping down close to 10:50 which, depending on how the scratches break out, could be fast enough to sneak into PSU.
Downingtown West and Malvern Prep seem like the most likely teams to run fast at this meet. Malvern Prep ran 10:36 back at Yale and currently sits at PA #5. They have two sub 4:30 milers on the key legs and are likely hoping to build momentum after some extremely strong races in recent weeks from their studs McDevitt and Wills. McDevitt is coming off a surprising display of speed, running 1:57.1 to win uncontested at Lehigh. He, Wills and Addison Mueller are scheduled to double back in the open 800m for a nice round of speed to close out the day. It’s fitting that battling Malvern Prep will be Downingtown West, a team that will likely feature former Prep stand-out Josh Hoey. Josh and teammate Henry Sappey are both under 4:30 this year in the mile as well and West is coming off a strong 10:40 showing at the armory a few weeks ago. DTW has no one entered in any individual events from their distance squad so they will likely try the DMR/4x8 double for a nice workout and a good insurance test in the 4x8 (or if they are tired, they can always scratch. It doesn’t hurt to have a back-up plan).
LaSalle has been the opposite. They have loaded up a slew of end of meet 4x8s in recent years at MoCs, including a meet record run. This team has to make a tough choice on which relay is best for them at states (I've changed my mind and am now leaning towards 4x8 for these guys but I go back and forth) so the DMR may be a worthwhile experiment this weekend. Grant, Price and Challingsworth have blank slates for the meet individually and Sutton is only entered in the open 4.
I'm probably most interested in the least known PCL team, Bonner, who will be looking for a strong season best as a relay to try and qualify for states. This is a sneaky good program with Sullivan and Rasatter doing some excellent running on the end legs. They won at PCLs and should see better competition this weekend. Low 10:50s is in play if things click.
There are a slew of directional teams scheduled to be involved as well: CR North, CR South, CB East, CB West. CB West likely used their final pre states "A"DMR last weekend at the last chance meet and have individuals entered everywhere. Plus they could use a 4x8 run mixed in just to see what kind of pieces they have. Traditionally, this program is a 4x8 school so I'm surprised they haven't pursued that avenue more this season.
CB East has successfully confused me. No clue what the plan is for them at states for Brophy and co. I think a fast DMR could be in play this weekend, but it's equally likely the load up individually. They shouldn't have a problem qualifying for states in either relay so if they want to let Shahideh and Boucher pursue individuals that's reasonable. But if East goes all in for the DMR this weekend, I think we could see something quite fast from this group.
CR South and CR North both have solid DMR teams, but it's unclear if either plans to load the event this weekend. CRN may have taken their last shot this past weekend and now have to choose between giving Arita a legit individual shot and pursuing the DM. But are currently riding the bubble and Arita is entered in all 3 distance events individually. So it looks like CRN doesn't quite have the plan set in stone either. CR South has Hanna and MaGuire slotted in the 3k, both looking to lower their times and get into state qualifying position. Even if they succeed, that means a difficult 3k, DMR double at states. It's possible South runs hard in the DM and uses the long break to let Hanna and MaGuire rest up (both men passed on the mile), but that's a risky move. Their DMR is probably safe this weekend regardless and should be on the starting line at states if they want it.
Abington is entered in the event fresh off a pleasant surprise at last chance. They ran an excellent race and could be sleeper contenders in this event looking ahead. However, they just seem more comfortable at the 4x8 and that's what I'd guess they are building to for states. But they could have a strong DM of their own with Good and Neely helping lead the charge.
Twin Valley and HG Prep are both seeded under 10:50 right now for a banked track, but neither team is likely feeling comfortable with it's borderline state status in the DM. I expect both teams to throw out their A team this weekend (especially Twin Valley who is entered in no other events) and try and pick up a few more seconds toward their state seed.
Some intriguing story lines at the back include a ton of teams with the potential to be under 11 minutes and maybe even in the 10:50 range that currently signifies state qualifying potential. Among that group is Boyertown (could try their hand in either relay), Masterman, Springfield DELCO (top flight anchors), Bensalem, Upper Darby, Coatesville, Pennridge, Wissahickon, and Horsham. One of these teams likely will pop something if they stack this relay in such a strong field. Get your popcorn ready.
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