DMR: Part One

​D. M. R. The three most exciting letters in the world of track and field. I bet your heart rate jumped just a little just reading them. If it didn’t, I’m sure it will when NCAA’s rolls around, because this year is going to be one heck of a race. We’ve got Oregon with King Ches on the anchor, a team of 800 studs from Georgetown, the mid-distance kings of track and field from Penn State (Arguable, I know, but it sounds good), Villanova with their stud milers, and I’ve just scratched the surface. The last three years it’s taken 9:31.xx to get to NCAA’s, but I think this year could be crazy. We’ve already had 10 teams at or under 9:35, and I don’t think most of them have run their best race yet.

​I’m going to break this preview down into three posts. Hopefully that will keep things short enough that you won’t get bored reading it, and it’s a little more manageable for me. To start I’m going to preview the favorites. Then I’ll get a post on the sleepers, and finish up with one on the other teams I think will fill the field. We’ve still got a few weeks until Alex Wilson, where pretty much all of the DMR’s at NCAA’s will come from, so I could end up looking pretty stupid, but that’s a risk I’ll take.

​Oregon: In my opinion, these guys are the favorites, and not just because they have the one and only Edward Cheserekrunning their anchor leg. This team is stacked across the board.They ran Columbia transfer Johnny Gregorek on their 1200 leg at Kentucky, and I think they’ll stick with him. He’s got pr’s of 1:48 and 4:01 for the 800 and mile respectively, and I think gives them a great combination of speed and strength at the lead-off spot. I could see him splitting in the 2:52-54 range on a good day. That’s as good as just about anyone else out there. Then you go to the 400, where they return a 47.1 guy in Marcus Chambers. It’s possible they would elect not to run him at NCAA’s if he were to make it individually in the 400, but let’s be honest, it’s not going to make that big of a difference. It’s really hard to win or lose a DMR on the 400 leg. From the 400 we go to the 800, where Oregon might have the sleeper of the year in Niki Franzmair, an Austrian with a 1:46 pr. Watching his interview with flotrack after the meet at Washington a couple weeks ago he tried to keep expectations low, but I’m not buying it. He opened up with a solid 1:49, which is nothing special, but I think with a few more weeks under his belt he’ll be ready to drop a big time when it really counts. If he splits somewhere in the 1:47-48 range, which I think is realistic, that could be a huge difference maker, especially when you consider who he will be handing off to: King Edward Cheserek. Ches ran 3:36 for 1500 last year, and he’s running the Wanamaker mile in 2 weeks, where I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him run in the 3:52-53 range. High expectations? Sure, but it is Cheserek. The point is, Oregon has the best anchor in this race by far. If everyone else decides to make it a tactical race, they have no chance against Cheserek, if they floor it from the start, I’m not sure they can run away from the rest of Oregon’s guys. This team is loaded, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they break the NCAA record at some point this year.

​Penn State: The perpetual underachievers when it comes to getting right at NCAA’s. I would say this is their year, but Oregon is an absolute juggernaut, so I can’t. I do think they are a force to be reckoned with, however, and if things break just right, they could sneak out of there with the title. They are experienced, and hungry. There is no doubt about that. Leading off they have one of the best 1200 legs in the NCAA in Brandon Kidder. He split 2:53 last year when they ran 9:26, and I would have to imagine he’s capable of something in the 2:51-52 range this year. Just in case you didn’t know, that’s crazy fast. Following Kidder, Penn State could potentially have the best 400 leg in the race, Byron Robinson. Now, last year they ran Watkins on the 400 leg at Nationals, so they could do that again this year. If they do run Robinson though, they are running a guy who has gone 46.7 in the open 400. Following him up, in all likelihood, will be Za’Von Watkins. There’s been a little bit of concern over him so far this year. He has yet to break 1:50, and looked a bit shaky on the 800 leg last weekend. I’m confident he will come around though. If anything, he has peaked a bit early in the past, so this could be a good thing. Finally, Penn State has one of the most experienced anchor legs in the NCAA, RobbyCreese. This man is a stud. He boasts a 3:57 pr, and he knows how to race. Yes, he got outkicked by Georgetown this past weekend. He won’t let that happen when it really counts. I think Penn State has the second best team out there, if the race is hot. If it gets tactical, I think it could get a little bit dicey, but I still see them coming out in second. Creese has been outkicked before, but I think he has learned his lesson, and will be savvy enough to avoid that this year.

​Georgetown: This team is coming of a great race at Penn State, running 9:28.22 which is no joke of a time. Oh, and by the way, they didn’t run their best team. At least, I don’t think they did. When you add Ahmed Bile to that team, they become downright dangerous. Honestly, this is the pick I’m the least confident about. These guys could win it all, or at the very least, challenge Penn State for second. On the 1200 they have Cole Williams, a 1:49/3:46 man who I would guess split somewhere around 2:52-53 this weekend. I don’t have a flopro account so I can’t verify that. The point is, I’m confident he will put them in the mix from the start. They ran one of their 800 men, Joe White, on the 400 leg at Penn State, and I would guess they will continue to do that. I don’t have any way of knowing what he’s capable of, but once again, it’s hard to lose or win a DMR on the 400 leg. Following him up is Billy Ledder, who boasts a 1:47 800 pr. He didn’t run at all at Penn State, so hopefully he isn’t hurt. If he’s healthy though, he gives them one of the best 800 legs in the race, if not the best. Then you have Ahmed Bile running the anchor leg. He had a huge race at Penn State, going 3:59.04. If you take off a few seconds for the fact that he’s running a 1600, and that it’s a relay split, I would think he’s capable of bringing this team home in around 3:56-57. I think the race between Georgetown and Penn State will be incredibly tight again, but I have to give Penn State the edge with their experience, which is why I think Georgetown will be third.

​Villanova: The last of my favorites, this ‘Nova team has yet to fully show their cards. What I do know, is their probable 1200 leg, Robert Denault, looked really, really good at Penn State this past weekend, running 3:58.25. The one downside I see to him, is that he doesn’t have a great 800 pr on record, so I’m not sure how his pure speed is. That being said, he ran 3:58. I think he will be just fine hanging with the big guns. Following him up could potentially be another 400 stud in Obadare who has run 46.2 in the open 400. They didn’t run him at Penn State though, so I have a hard time believing they would at NCAA’s. My guess is that they’ll stick with Urschel, who boasts a pr of 48.73. Following him is ‘Nova’s weakest leg, and biggest mystery, the 800. I think they will stick with Elliot Slade, who I’ve heard split around 1:49 at Penn State. However, they do have Ben Malone waiting in the wings. He ran 1:49 in high school, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up running the 800 leg for them. Either way, they don’t have the 1:47-48 firepower that a lot of other teams do, and I think that will really hurt them. They do have Jordy Williamsz on the anchor though, and that’s worth a lot. He carries a 3:56 pr, and if NCAA’s gets tactical, I think he is the biggest threat to Ed Cheserek. However, that’s the only way I see him threatening the front teams. I just don’t see this team as having the firepower on the first three legs to stay with the leaders, and I think Williamsz will have a lot of work to do just to get them back into fourth, which, for the record, is where I am prematurely predicting they will finish.

​So, there you have it. Those are the four teams I think are the favorites, listed in the order I think they’ll finish in. I’ll try to get the next post up in the next couple days, but I’m not making any promises. Things are pretty busy over on my end of things. Finally, just to wrap things up, I think congratulations are in order to anyone who managed to wade through all of that and get to the end. Thanks for reading, and let me know what you think. I’m sure you don’t all agree with me.