800m
The 800m is stacked with talent this weekend in what may be the last chance for a fast time for many runners. As of now, 7 runners that I have slotted to compete at the state championships are on the entry list. An additional three with times fast enough to get their ticket punched are on the itinerary as well.
Khai Samuels of Pleasant Valley heads the charge. He is currently ranked in the top 10 in the state and has produced perhaps the most number of sub 2 minute 800m marks of anyone in the state this season. That being said, he has been unable to drop time since his December breakthrough against Sauer at this same Lehigh Track and will look to turn things back around against this excellent field. Samuels will be joined by another breakout runner from Burdette, Brett Wolfinger, who has been quiet since his 1:58.99 in December. Wolfinger’s Quakertown teammate, frosh Hudson Delisle, just ran a 2:02 which could be a sign of fast times on the horizon for Brett.
Although those two come into the meet with the fastest season bests, I suspect few will be picking either for the victory. A combination of Alex Milligan, Grayson Hepp, Matt Wisner and Connor Holm likely share that distinction at this stage. Lost in all the craziness so far this indoor season has been the fact that Connor Holm is actually the top returner from last year’s 800m. He medaled indoors in the 800 and DMR and made the finals outdoors in the 1600m as well. Holm ran tough in the 800m back in December, but hasn't run an open 8 to my knowledge since. He could be ready for a breakthrough this weekend.
Grayson Hepp is in an interesting position for this race. He beat out teammate Nick Dahl at the Armory this past weekend in a 4:26, showing excellent strength and speed. He has also run 2:00 already this indoor season in the open 800m, with serious potential to drop time. The GFS boys are tricky to place for me looking ahead. Their mile teams were solid, but likely won’t be fast enough to get in the hot heat at states. Dahl was fantastic at Yale over 3k and Hepp seems most comfortable at 800m (despite excelling in the mile and 32 already). But the team has a very strong DMR and could really hurt their chances of a top spot with too many doubling pieces, especially in the later events (like the 3k). If Hepp runs something smoking at this meet, it’s tough to pass on the open 8 at states, but I get the feeling this weekend will be a final chance to get PRs before putting a completely fresh DMR on the track at states.
Alex Milligan has excelled at both mid-distances this year after a very strong XC season. He qualified for states in both the indoor and outdoor mile last year and that appears to be his favorite event. Forrest has been on record as hypothesizing that Milligan will try his hand at the 800m at states rather than the mile, and there’s certainly a chance if he drops a big time this weekend. I believe the State College Invite #3 is looming next weekend so it appears Alex will have a chance to showcase what he can do in both the 8 and the mile before he has to make a decision on states. Regardless, he’s very talented and arguably the favorite to win at Lehigh.
Matt Wisner has had an awesome indoor compaign this year. He stunned me early on when he ran 2:00 and now is fresh off a big time mile at F&M. Carlisle has had state qualifiers in the past who have never ended up on the starting line at PSU (Brehm, Kyle Hurston) , but I’m hoping that this year is different. I really like what Wisner has been able to produce so far this season and this race may provide his best competition. That’s a scary thought for the rest of this field.
Beyond these big names are a few interesting upset picks and sleepers. The best frosh of the year at 800m, Kamil Jihad, will be in his first big race since his breakthrough at Burdette in December. He has been solid in his other races, but has flown under the radar since his fast start. He will also be in the same race as freshman Liam Conway from Owen J. Roberts who was one of the state’s best freshman in cross country. Killian Nelson of Conestoga has shown excellent speed, splitting 1:57 already this year on a DMR according to sources. That instantly makes him a favorite in this race. Conestoga has been getting rapidly better every week and Nelson and co. could prove that with an impressive run today. Noah Falasco of Upper Merion dropped down to 2 flat in the 8 this past weekend and now returns to try his luck again. We saw Christian Sanders and Austin Cooper each make huge drops over the final weeks of the season (Cooper dropped down to 1:56 on the double last year and Sanders went from 2:00 to 1:53 in practically two weeks) so maybe Falasco is next in line.
Some other names to watch include Nick Mahon from Wilson (2:02 in some low key meets), Ethan Gatchell from Red Lion (2:00 on the double at Kevin Dare), Fletcher from Mt. Caramel,Yeger from Pennsbury and Josh Smith from Avon Grove.
Ultimately, this is a tough top five to predict. The winner of one of the slower heats may even end up the champion: there is enough depth and enough runners who are willing to really gofor it. Plus if too many are on the line in the fast heat, things can get crowded quickly in this short of a race on an indoor track. When the dust settles on this event, here is what I predict the results will show:
1. Matt Wisner, Carlisle 1:57.98
2. Alex Milligan, State College 1:58.06
3. Khai Samuels, Pleasant Valley 1:58.20
4. Killian Nelson, Conestoga 1:59.47
5. Nick Mahon, Wilson 1:59.98
No comments:
Post a Comment