12 Teams: Teams in Bold Accepted, Teams Italicized scratched
1 St. Joe's Prep 10:29.15'
2 Conestoga 10:29.74'
3 Pennsbury 10:32.15'
4 GFS 10:33.10'
5 Malvern Prep 10:36.29'
6 Downingtown West 10:40.74'
7 CB West 10:41.25*
8 CB East 10:42.73'
9 O'Hara 10:45.64*
10 Abington 10:46.32*
11 CR South 10:46.55'
12 LaSalle 10:46.64*
13 WC Henderson 10:48.16*
14 Twin Valley 10:48.30*
15 Penncrest 10:48.36'
16 CR North 10:48.38'
17 HG Prep 10:49.29'
18 Bensalem 10:54.18*
19 Avon Grove 10:54.20'
20 Upper Darby 10:56.08*
21 Radnor 10:58.03*
22 Altoona 10:58.99'
23 Bishop Shanahan 10:59.01*
24 Springfield DELCO 10:59.86*
25 Bonner 11:00.19*
26 Boyertown 11:00.67*
27 West Chester East 11:01.07*
28 Canon Mac 11:01.60'
29 Wissahickon 11:02.13*
30 Masterman 11:02.75*
The DMR is going to be an incredibly exciting event at states, but there is also a lot of drama swirling with a week to go before the big dance. Many of the schools it's obvious that they are going to be loading up a DM at the state champs (GFS, Conestoga, Malvern Prep, etc.) because they are not in qualifying position in the other relay and have shown no signs they want to be. Meanwhile, CB East, LaSalle and O'Hara (and suddenly Abington) are three teamst that I go back and forth on where they will throw their chips. As of now I've thrown all three squads into the scratch pile, but a lot can change in the final week.
To prove that these squads are serious about the DMR, they would have to think about loading it up at MoC. O'Hara has loaded their MoC DMR the past few years and then opted for the 4x8 at states to let guys chase individual accolates. Then at Nationals, they load up their "A" squad DMR and chase All-American status. I haven't seen much to indicate we aren't in for that same treatment here, allowing James to go after the state title in the 3k.
LaSalle and CB East are both trickier. CB East is a big giant question mark for me. I have come around to the idea that Brophy may now be going mile at states, rather than the 3k, which opens up the door for a realistic DMR attempt. CB East has quietly been running awesome in this event, even without their big name legs. At MoCs they may drop something sub 10:30 and then they are right there in state title contention. Winning the 4x8 is going to be difficult (Pennsbury makes teams want to stay away the way they have been running) but they could win the DM. After this next weekend I could easily change my mind about CB East.
Same goes for LaSalle. They have been 1st and 2nd the past two years in the DMR, but they seem to be more focused on the 4x8 in recent weeks (and they have done quite well in this one, breaking 8 minutes). LaSalle could be dangerous in the 4x8, but I think they'd be better at the DM. Grant is turning into an All-Star and they have multiple options for the 1200m leg. The flip side of things, the 4x8 allows them to get 4 distance runners on the line at states (and they have a ton of quality distance guys) so it may be appealing. I know these guys were leaning 4x8 before the season started, but sometimes your squad changes the game on you. I feel the DMR is their best event, but for now they have shown me nothing to indicate they are going to flop.
Some other interesting developments. First, I believe DT West's boys Sappey and Hoey are not qualified for MoC in the mile. They didn't chase a qualifying time at Last Chance (opting instead for the 800m) which, to me at least, indicates they aren't concerned about holding their positions in the open mile. This squad is likely going completely fresh DMR at states and that makes them a dangerous squad. I think Stoga and GFS are both in play for that completely fresh DM attempt as well. Stoga to me is certainly a wildcard because they have three individuals who are all quite good. It's hard to argue that only one or two guys get's to go open and double back, it's really an all or nothing situation considering how well Nelson has been running. I think they are willing to make the sacrifice indoors and focus individually outdoors. GFS is a bit more of a wildcard. I don't see Hepp lining up for either open race, it's really just Dahl that's the question mark. He's just a soph and GFS has sacrificed in the past. Can you scratch an 8:44 guy out of the 3k in good faith? Maybe not, but I think it's in play.
Now let's take a look at the bubble teams. Avon Grove is obviously the most at jeopardy here. I'm already being a little bold by scratching O'Hara, LaSalle and CB East and I don't believe AG is qualified for MoCs in the DMR, meaning they may not have a chance to improve their seed time.
Meanwhile, I see a ton of teams lining up their "A" squad to chase the time. Look at all those teams currently down around 11 flat. West Chester East will likely throw a completely fresh squad out this time around and should get excellent competition. Spingfield DELCO and Masterman both can feel pretty good about going all out in the DM thanks to the efforts of JDL and Galligan in recent weeks (both guys are almost locks to get in for the mile now). Shanahan and Bonner are both going to likely go for it as well and both squads can roll.
CR North, CR South, WCH, Twin Valley and HG Prep are all in a bit of a danger zone. I'm thinking 10:48ish is your cut off time for states. Henderson is not qualified for MoC in the DMR I believe, so their time is locked in, but Prep will almost definitely give it their best shot to improve their seed. As for the CRs, I'm not sure what they are thinking. North tried to improve their time at Last Chance, but they couldn't do it. Meanwhile, Arita is no a bubble case at best in the mile and slowly slipping in the 3k standings. If he runs the DMR (first event at MoCs) he leaves himself tired for the individual events and possibly ends up with nothing for states (including the relay). I think North will roll with their current seed time and see what happens. South (and Twin Valley too) both could end up choosing the 4x8 after the dust settles. I like both teams in the DM and I'd be quite surprised if they got jumped by more than one team this weekend, so I don't think they need to run another DM to get in. But it's hard to leave too much to chance.
A few other wildcard facts of note. What will happen out West? Altoona looms as a potential star studded team in the DM with guys like Foust and George available. Plus North Allegheny has been fantastic in the longer distances and has likely guarenteed spots for all three of their big name guys at states. What about Canon-Mac or JP McCaskey? Could either of those teams give a fast DMR a shot?
The problem is, it's going to take sub 10:50 minimum to get in at this rate and how many teams are realistically within striking distance of that mark? Not too many. This field seems to be more up to how many of the top squads scratch out for the 4x8 and how many do not.
But much like the NCAA, I suspect we are going to see some serious DMR madness in this final week of the season.
Can a team qualify for the meet of champs at the track carnival?
ReplyDeleteI think the PTFCA sponsors the carnival so it's a separate meet from the TFCAofGP meets that the meet of champs is associated with.
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