DMR Part 3

Well, Alex Wilson is tomorrow, so I guess I better finish this up today. I have already listed 8 teams I think will get in, so now I just need 4 more to fill out the field. Easier said than done. I ended up with 5 teams that I think have a legitimate shot at the last 4 spots: Columbia, Duke, Alabama, Texas A&M, and Virginia. Columbia, Alabama, and Virginia are all running at Alex Wilson this weekend, which gives them all a great chance. They’ll be in a fast race with teams like Indiana and Stanford, which I think will be a huge help and pull them along to fast times. Duke and Texas A&M are most likely going to have to try qualify the hard way, running by themselves at a slower meet. So, who do I think gets the last four spots?

First, I really like the team from Texas A&M. If they were running at Alex Wilson this weekend I would say they are almost a sure thing. They have run one DMR already this year, and they put Deon Lendore on the 400 leg. I don’t think they would do that at NCAA’s, but they have showed they aren’t afraid to do it to get in. I know I’ve been saying that the 400 leg doesn’t make a huge difference, but when you have a guy running a low 45 split it’s an exception to the rule. My guess is Spencer will run the 1200 leg. He’s got a good combination of speed and strength, as he showed with his 2:25 1k performance. I think he could run in the 2:54 range, which would be a bit off the top teams in the NCAA, but should be good enough to get them in. Hernandez has showed some real talent in the 800, running 1:48 which will probably be right on the edge of making NCAA’s. He should give them a really solid leg. Finally,Villareal will close it down. He ran 4:01 a couple weeks ago, and I think he’ll be able to pull off a 4:00 1600 split. Put it all together, and I think they’ll be in the 9:29-30 range, which should get them in.

The next team I see as a virtual lock is Virginia. They’ll be in a great race this weekend, and they have the pieces to run a really good time. Mike Marsella just barely broke 4 last weekend, but I think he’ll be on the leadoff leg, at least based on the DMR they ran early in the season. He should be able to stay with that top group tomorrow and run somewhere right around 2:53. After that they have a great 400 leg in Hazzard, who has run 46.6 in the open 400. I could see him handing off with the lead this weekend. Their 800 leg, Kiley, has been solid but not great. He boasts a 1:49.2 season best, which, while it’s not amazing, should be good enough. Finally, Kyle King will close things down for them. He only has a 4:02 mile pr, but he ran that almost a month ago. Since then he has run 8:00 for 3k, and I think he will be more than capable of bringing this team home in somewhere around 3:59-4:01, especially with the competition he will have this weekend. Put it all together, and I see them running right around 9:30.

This is where things get tough, because I think it’s really hard to separate these three teams. I have to give Columbia the nod for the second to last spot in though. They ran 9:35 at the armory about a month ago, and have improved a lot since then. Oh yeah, and their Flotrack workout looked sick. Anyway, I think they will lead of with Fish, who has pr’s of 4:02 and 1:48 in the mile and 800 respectively. That’s a pretty darn good combination of speed and strength. I think he should be right around 2:53-4 this weekend. Following that up they have a decent 400 leg in Boyd, who has run 48.6 for the open 400. It’s nothing special like Texas A&M and Virginia have, but I think it’s good enough to keep them in the race. Their 800 leg, Claflin, is the same type of deal. He has a 1:48 season best, which should keep them right in the race this weekend. Finally, Napolitano will anchor. He ran 4:00.6x at BU last weekend, so he should be able to bring this team home really well. I think this team will really benefit from running at Alex Wilson this weekend. They have some solid legs in the middle, but nothing special. I think it’s huge for those guys to have people to compete with, and that will ultimately be the difference maker. I see them running right around 9:30-31 this weekend and sneaking into NCAA’s.

Finally, it comes down to Duke and Alabama. I would love to see Duke make it. After all, they have a PA alum on their team, and I happen to be a huge Duke Basketball fan. That being said, I think they have too many weaknesses. I have yet to see a good 800 time from this team. Burton split 1:51 at the Armory a few weeks ago, but his open 800 is only a 1:53, so I can’t see him going much faster than that. Throw in the fact that they would most likely have to run by themselves to get the qualifier, and I just don’t see it happening.

Alabama has a really strong team, potentially. I’m a little bit worried though, because Anankwah is not listed on their DMR team for this weekend, and it’s been a while since I have seen a result from him. The good news, however, is that they still have a pretty solid 800 leg in Lahbi. Leading off will be Farnham-Rose, who ran 4:01 a couple weeks ago. He should be able to put in a strong 1200 leg, especially with the competition this weekend. Following him up they have a really good 400 leg in Gayle, who has run 46.9 already this year. He should be right in the thick of things when he hands off to Lahbi, who has run 1:48 in the open 800. He should be able to hang with, or at least close to, that pack this weekend, and put Airola in a good position. After that, all Airola has to do is hang with the top pack. If he can do that, he should run a really good split, and bring his team home in a time that will get them to NCAA’s. When the dust clears, I think they will be sitting right around 9:30-31, and will sneak into NCAA’s just ahead of Duke.

While I don’t think any of these teams can score at NCAA’s, you never know. Last year Penn State came in with the top seed and finished second to last. Anything can happen, if you’re in the race. I think these teams will get the job done in the next couple weeks and get to NCAA’s. Once they get there, it’s just about racing. No worries about splits or what someone else across the country is doing. Just race.