The Conductor Speaks: Week One

By Jarrett Felix

Did you get your tickets? Because the etrain is making its weekly rounds. Here are some of my thoughts on the opening weekend in what is sure to be an exciting 2016 season. What were you most impressed with?

Train Stop #1: Chambersburg’s Enos Yeager meet is a quite the random distance (2.38 miles?), but it’s featured some excellent runners over the year including AA state champion Vinny Todaro, District 3 champ Dan Green and three time track state champ Zach Brehm. The fastest time in the past decade or so on the lay out was 12:12 by Brehm in 2014, defeating Dan Green (12:19). Well it was anyway. That is until PA’s newest star hit the course. Noah Affolder, now running for Carlisle after the move from New York, dropped an 11:49 to obliterate the previous course bests. Extrapolating that 23 second advantage over Brehm from 2.38 to 3.1 is worth about 30 seconds. Does that mean Noah Affolder could end up sub 15 at Carlisle’s home course later this year? Because that would be wild.

I broke down a full list of Enos Yeager times over the years on LXV+, but Carlisle did more big things behind Noah in this one. Sam Affolder, Noah’s younger brother, finished 2^nd in 12:20 followed by Isaac Kole (12:32) and Jack Wisner (12:46). Kole’s time is 6^th fastest in the last decade, just 2 seconds behind Todaro’s best and Jack matched his brother’s best time on the course as well (Matt finished 24^th at states in 2015 and won a mid penn title). Carlisle has some options at the #5 and #6 spot as well with Max Fiorentino and Tyler Hallman both under 13:15. I definitely like what I saw from Carlisle in this one and Noah Affolder is going to be one heck of a runner in 2016. Look out course records.

Train Stop #2: It’s interesting to me how every year people get so wrapped up in times. For my purposes I basically don’t pay any attention to times with two very notable exceptions. 1) I like to look at times on a year over year basis from the same course. 2) I like to look at gaps between runners in the same race including margin of victory, team spreads, etc. And that’s it. Some courses are more difficult than others, some are more competitive than others and, yes, some are shorter than others. It’s part of what makes the sport fun.

So we jump to the Northamption Invitational, and the champions David Endres and CB East. Endres ran 15:49 for the victory by 13 seconds over Avery Lederer of Penncrest. The top 4 runners were all either juniors or seniors and included a couple very skilled 800 runners in Hudson Delisle (3^rd, 16:09) and Matt Eissler (4^th, 16:11). Endres’s time is the fastest PA time in recorded course history (only the Severna Park duo last year broke 16 before) and ranks ahead of Will Alpaugh of Freedom who finished in the top 50 at states a year ago (he ran 16:08).

We also know that Endres was a top flight freshman in a strong program. He ran some excellent splits on the track, including sub 2 in the 800. Plus, in one interview, Jake Brophy implied that Endres would one day go on to break his state record. I’m not saying Endres is suddenly a top 10-15 guy in the state, but he’s going to be a force this season with a very realistic shot at a medal in AAA. And I think this race may be only the beginning for him.

As for the rest of the CB East squad, they showed some great depth in this race. They posted 6 runners in the top 16 and also swept the top 4 places in the JV race. They won the meet by 42 points over back to back state qualifiers, Easton, and look like they will be very competitive in the District 1 state qualifying conversation. It’s still a little early to judge, but this has to be an encouraging and confidence building start to their season.

Train Stop #3: So the Oakbourne relays takes an interesting approach to early season running. The scoring favors deeper teams as your top 8 runners matter, but we know that only 5 of those runners will actually be scorers when we get to the season. So I tried to estimate the top times from the meet and posted the results to LXV+. The fastest total time was posted by Nate Henderson who crushed back to back 4:49s. That was faster than GFS’s Nick Dahl who ran 4:51 and 4:55. However, Dahl ended up running away with the race on the second split while Henderson had to do some serious chasing on his second split.

Juniors Rusty Kujdych and Spencer Smucker both had solid openers with the 3^rd and 6^th fastest marks of the day. Also in the top 5 was Brandon Hontz from WC Rustin and Ryan Barton from DT West. You may have heard me talk a little about Downingtown West recently? Well the team made their first bid at a repeat championship with five of the top 20 total times. They also took the top 3 spots in the Junior Varsity race.

Although West proved they will still be a force, I’d say one of the most impressive performances came from Wilson’s top 3 runners. They also had 3 of the top 20 performers overall including #10 Jake Underwood. Wilson was one of the surprise state qualifiers out of District 3 a year ago and if they can develop some depth at the 4-5 spot (they had a strong JV performance from Peter Vicari) they should be in the mix in an already crowded District 3.

Train Stop #4: I’m not sure if I’ve gone on record saying this before, but I’m very high on Harbor Creek. The AA school from District 10 finished 2^nd at McDowell (tops in AA) and placed 4 runners in the top 15 overall, led by sophomores Ryan Starvaggi and Aiden Weber. However, their #5 runner was 79 seconds back of their #4. I expect that gap to drop going forward and, if it does, look out for HC as a top 5 contender in the team title race in AA.

Taylor Allerdice of District 8 usually is an afterthought in AAA. But after a solid 2015 showing, they return their top two runners Amadou Diallo and Tavonne Davis. They also placed two more runners in the top 13. However, like Harbor Creek, they had a big gap back from #4 to #5. Keep an eye on how this situation develops.

At the front, Connor Walsh of Cambridge Springs got the individual win with the Seneca duo of Phoenix and Donovan Myers taking #2 and #3. That 2-3 finish from the twins helped Seneca take the #3 spot in the team standings. They also had the best #5 runner in the meet with great depth through #7.

Train Stop #5:

Quick hits, ready go!

Lock Haven

Ethan Knoebel picks up the win in his invite opener. The sophomore was 5^th in the District 4 single A race a year ago and may be a state medal contender in that division this year. He was the #2 freshman in the state, placing 48^th overall. Tyler Holcomb, who will run out of AAA, finished second for Willaimsport in this race. He qualified for states a year ago as a sophomore.

Marty Uher Invittional

Mount Lebanon isn’t going anywhere just yet. After graduating their top 3, they defeated one of the up and coming AA squads in Greensburg Salem and showed a strong pack. Greensburg Salem did take 1-2 in the race with Mark Brown and Frankie King leading the way.

Big Valley

Isaac Davis, one of the top AA runners in the state and a really underrated XC runner. He proved how strong of a runner he was by dropping a sub 16 mark at the Big Valley Invitational and defeating 1:53 800m man Nick Feffer of State College by a second. Those times are very quick for this course (many other future state medalists ran in the 16 teens or so). Ian Gabig of Camp Hill finished 3^rd in a strong 16:21 and sophomore Owen Isham of State College showed that he should be on everyone’s radar with a 4^th place 16:25. State College picked up the win in convincing fashion, but Penns Valley, who finished 3^rd, looks like a sleeper team in A. For the record, State College’s junior Mitchell Etter ran a blazing fast 16:44 to win by over a minute and a half! 16:44 would have placed 6^th in the varsity race. If you add him into the mix for SC, they have a very strong top 4.

Cliff Robbins

Dallas rolls with 42 points and 5 in the top 16 team scorers (then 42 and 50), Zardecki wins, Borton the 5

Defending state champions Dallas look just as strong as ever, rolling to the victory. Jack Zardecki took the gold with a 16:52 and the team placed 5 runners in the top 16. Adam Borton, who placed top 30 at states last year, was their #5 runner, indicating that they have some real potential for medalists at all 5 spots.

Hornet Harrier

Chad Grundy picked up the win over Zac Tingley in a nice early season battle. I really like Grundy as a sleeper for this season. He was very strong on the track so it’s nice to see that success translate early to the grass.

Others

Jacob Hebda of Elizabeth Forward and Callahan Lennon of HG Prep each picked up strong invitational wins to start their seasons. Lennon is a returning medalist from Prep while Hebda is an up and coming District 7 AA contender. He finished 41^st in the WPIAL last year, just missing a state qualifying mark.