District 4 Predictions

AA

District 4 is a pretty solid district for AA and A. In AA they have runner named Simon Smith who is daring anyone to try and Stay With Me. I’m gonna go ahead and high five myself for that.

 

Smith is my pick to win this race and the question for me is really more geared towards how high can be place at states. The top 10 is loaded, as I have said many times, so Smith will have to take steps to distinguish himself this week. He will be up against a fairly quality field that includes the Mt. Caramel boys who will be chasing a top 5 finish in the AA state championships. Their leader is Nate Bartos who will try and outduel Smith for the title. Also worth watching is Amabile from Mifflinburg, Beiler from Selingsgrove, Bach from Lewisburg and Sweet from Sayre. Sweet is an excellent miler who is trying to make the transition to cross effectively. Bach is a young up and comer from the always strong program Lewisburg. I’m predicting a break out race for him at this meet.

 

Mt. Caramel is heavy favorites in my eyes to qualify for states. That’s bad news for the rest of the district because they are down to just 1 state qualifying spot this year. Lewisburg and the upstart team Warrior Run will try their best to pull off the upset, but Mt. Caramel has a ton of fire power out front behind Bartos and Moser that I’m not sure anyone can match. Fisher and Fletcher are strong 3-4 pieces as well. Warrior Run looked strong at Pre States with a surprise top 10 finish, but they are lacking the front running to really make a splash. Bach and Alico are both individual qualifying threats for Lewisburg, but that is likely the only way they will be getting a ride to Hershey.

 

1       Mt Caramel      55

2       Lewisburg

3       Warrior Run

 

1       Smith           Towanda

2       Bartos          Mt Caramel

3       Amabile Mifflinburg

4       Moser           Mt Caramel

5       Beiler          Selingsgrove

6       Bach            Lewisburg

7       Sweet           Sayre

8       Gavitt          Hughesville

9       Malafronte      Danville

10      Fisher           Mt Caramel

11      Alico           Lewisburg

12      Lewis           Milton

13      Leeser          Milton

14      Fletcher        Mt Caramel

15      Spaulding       Lewisburg

 

A

District 4 has carved out a nice niche in the newly formed A. Northeast Bradford won the first ever A state title thanks to a pair of stars in Williams and Jewett. This year, they have quietly become one of the favorites to grab yet another A title (especially if the D7 teams race each other into the group this week). They are set up to dominate this meet and even have an outside chance at a sweep if the South Williamsport boys don’t end up with 5 guys like last year (even though I believe they had a full squad at Paul Short). Garrett Smith did big things down the stretch for Bradford a year ago and is joined out front by Levi Upham, a key contributor to their 2012 state title squad. Allbaugh and Senns-Bishop are very solid 3-4 guys and Mosier and Horton each have the potential to be a strong 5 on a championship team.

 

Individually, Griffin Molino should defend his title without too much effort at the District Championships. The reigning state champ has already run under 15:20 this year at Paul Short and showcased brilliant closing speed at that meet as well. Very few runners have stepped forward as challengers for Molino in the A world and Molino can crush a few more runners confidence with a statement win against a few guys from NEB who will be medal contenders at Hershey. Watch out for the Schools boys from Wyalusing and Gleckner from Canton to try and help Molino break up the NEB pack.

 

1       Northeast Bradford      24

2       Wyalusing

 

1       Molino          South Williamsport

2       G. Smith        Northeast Bradford

3       Upham           Northeast Bradford

4       Allbaugh        Northeast Bradford

5       Gleckner        Canton

6       Senns-Bishop    Northeast Bradford

7       Schools Wyalusing

8       Woodruff        Wyalusing

9       Mosier          Northeast Bradford

10      Schools Wyalusing

11      May             Canton

12      Horton          Northeast Bradford (6)