2/7 Indoor Standings

By Jarrett Felix

We are starting to get down to the wire with state championship qualifying so I figured, in addition to my usual indoor standings posts on LXV+, I’d attach a little bit of analysis to fill you in on my thoughts.

4x800m (16 Teams)

Currently we have 17 teams under the SQG, with Cumberland Valley the odd team out at 17. Since schools can enter both relays, odds are that none of these qualifying teams will scratch. Last year, we saw essentially all teams enter the relays they were qualified in and just run “B” squads if they weren’t going to run “A” teams. So I’d put money down that we see no scratches in 2017.

This event actually increased in numbers from 12 to 16, implying to me that they will now have two heats of the 4x8 at states. That’s an awesome sign for us distance fans and extends the opportunity to compete at states to a whole new section of athletes. In addition, I could see them taking a few more than 16 under the right circumstances. I may be optimistic, but I could see them going up to 20 teams without too much issue. If you are already having two heats, it’s not outrageous to fit 9 or 10 in each heat rather than 8. So if there are 19 teams that enter the state championship with the SQG, there’s a chance the PTFCA will just take all 19 teams. However, by similar logic, if there are 24 teams who enter with the SQG, they may just take 16.

But regardless of 16 or 20, there will be two heats. Assuming they do hold strong at 16, there will be only 8 teams in the fast heat. As of right now the bubble for the fast heat would be State College (#6), Abington (#7) and Penn Wood (#8). 8:08.31 by Penn Wood is the cut off. Looming behind them are teams like CB East (two guys well under 2 the past two weeks), Bensalem (cruised an 8:18 in early January) and North Penn (one of the most decorated programs in this event). Plus you have CR North, the reigning XC state champions, who ran in the 7:40s last spring. They are currently not even in the state qualifying window with an 8:22c seed. I gotta imagine at least one of those teams makes a serious run at the fast heat at states which could mean we get SC or Abington (the top 2 teams from outdoor states last year) in the slow heat.

Cumberland Valley sits on the bubble right now at #17. I didn’t see them on the entries for the Carnival so, unless they are running a meet at SC, it appears that CV may be stuck on their 8:19c seed time. On the flip side, District 3 bubble school Ephrata does have a 4x8 entered at the Carnival. They are currently #15 in the standings. The 4x8 is first, but Ephrata has all their individuals entered in big events later in the meet so it’s unclear if they will try to better their time or not.

Watch for William Tennent, DT East, Wissahickon and Upper Darby as teams that could make a big run at this in the last few weekends. Spring Ford and DT West are also intriguing teams who are both entered at the Carnival. And the #1 team on my list is CR South. They have a lot of potential to throw down an 8:17 kind of time.

Mile (20 Individuals)

The mile will always be interesting because of scratches. I’m betting on a bunch of them occurring. As of now, 25 of the top 35 on this list are potential scratches. That makes guessing where the cut off is very tricky. By my count, 37 guys have the SQG and my current projections put the state qualifying bubble right around that spot. Stephen Gray of Southern Lehigh is my current last guy in (4:31.16c), but he is far from safe. Just one flip from the LaSalle guys and he drops out. However, if things go well down the stretch, we could see a bunch of additional scratches. Like Nate Henderson if he qualifies in the 3k, Ryan James if O’Hara gets in for the DMR maybe even Brendan O’Toole if he stays in the 3k hunt.

The TSTCA’s final meet could be huge for this one. You have guys like Phoenix Myers, Sam Snodgrass and Sam Owori who I currently have slotted in the state meet but outside the fast heat. Then you also have guys like Cameron Binda, Eric Kennedy, Logan Lukonic and Mark Brown who are among the first 5-6 names out, but could definitely flip up a notch in the right race.

This field should be a hard line at 20. It’s one of the few events where they have not wavered. Last year’s cut off was 4:29.08.

800m (24 Individuals)

This has been the best event in the state through the first weekend in February. A total of 41 guys have run at or under the 2:00.13 SQG. By my current count, 14 guys who have the SQG and would like to run this event are not going to get in as of right now. Keep in mind that the previous two years, the cut off for this event ended up above the SQG: the only event that was above the SQG for two years in a row. So I guess people are making up for lost time.

Part of the problem is certainly that lots of dudes are running fast, but another part is that I don’t have a ton of guys projected to be scratches. Of the top 32 names, I’ve only got 3 guys listed as scratches and those aren’t necessarily set in stone. Sam Affolder is my top scratch, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him line up for this event. Jed Scratchard’s name literally has scratch in it so he seems like a good bet to dip out of this event to run the DMR-4x8 double for Pennsbury.

There are a few other guys who could potentially scratch down the stretch that aren’t currently on my list. It’s unclear what CB West wants to do with that DMR so Jake Claricurzio (currently #7 in the state) could be a scratch. CB East has a busy schedule on paper with a 4x8, a DMR and a 4x4 all currently qualified and sitting in medal contention. Marc Motter and Ata Shahideh would, if they stack them all, each be on all 3 of those relays. And bubble contenders in the 800 should be rooting for big days at the Carnival from the WC Rustin DMR and the State College DMR, as qualifications in those two events could make Nick Feffer and Brandon Hontz into scratches.

Perhaps just as interesting as the crazy fast state cut off (it’s currently at 1:59.16 but I expect it to dip into the 1:58s before all is said and done assuming the scratches hold up), is the heat cut offs. There are going to be 3 heats of the 800 with 8 guys in each section. As of now, the cut off for the fast heat is at around 1:56.8. The cut off for the second fastest heat is roughly 1:57.9. As of this moment, Kamil Jihad (1:52 PR) would be sitting in Heat 3 and Nick Feffer (1:53 PR) would be barely in Heat 2. I expect Jihad to make a jump over the final stretch of the season (he’s got PCLs, MoCs, Last Chance), but I think Feffer is perfectly content to pour everything into the two relays and skip the individual 800. He isn’t running it at the Carnival this weekend, but may take a stab at one more fast time at the last State College meet (especially if the Carlisle guys and Joe Cullen of Wyomissing swing by).

Currently sitting outside my projected hot heat as well would be Hudson Delisle of Quakertown, Chris Cameron of Wissahickon and Luke Everidge of CD East. Liam Conway (1:54/4:15) is also in that tier. I believe Everidge, Conway and bubble man Derin Klick are among the names projected to race this event at the Carnival. Outside my projected top 24 is also a bunch of TSTCA names including Donovan Myers, Zach Ehling, and Isaiah Bailey, all of whom have ran at least 1:56 in the open 800 before.

3,000m (12 Individuals)

The 3k still hasn’t gotten too crazy. The past two weekends we have seen a bit of a shake up as a slew of 2 milers were followed by a strong TFCAofGP 3k to bump the projected cut off down under 9 minutes. That has left O’Hara’s Ryan James and Conestoga’s Carlos Shultz currently on the outside looking in with a few weeks left to go.

This is an event that I could see being really influenced by the Carnival 3k results. Bubble guys like Colin Mihalak, Thomas Matsumara, Carlos Shultz, and Dominic Derafelo are all trying to flip from just out to just in. Nate Henderson doesn’t have a qualifying time yet, but was 3^rd at states last indoors. The District 3 contigent of Nate Kaplon, Ian Miller and Nick Norton hasn’t really had a chance to get in a race on this nice of a track with this level of competition. Zach Lefever and David Haines are both looking to bolster times that, while currently are safely in, could look a lot more precarious after the next few meet results coming rolling through.

The DMR bubble is also looming large. O’Hara has two guys under the SQG who would almost certainly scratch if their school makes it through in the DMR (they aren’t in right now, but are two time defending champions). CB West’s Ben Bunch has an outside chance of scratching for his team’s DMR if they plan to use him on anchor (they have a couple options). Butler (Noah Beveridge) has danced around the idea of DMR, while Lower Merion and Cheltenham seem very dedicated to it (both of their anchors seem like probable 3k scratches if their teams qualify). CR North’s recent explosion should knock Ryan Campbell out and LaSalle, always a strong relay school, is likely bringing Evan Addison onto the scratch list.

DMR (12 Teams)

The DMR has the toughest SQG in my opinion, as it takes 10:40.73 on a banked track to be under the guideline. Just 4 teams have hit that mark. And just 9 teams have even cracked 10:50 by conversion. Last year we had 22 teams under 10:47 by conversion at season’s end. So yes, I do expect things to heat up down the stretch. But where is it going to come from?

Well, the first wave of action should come at the Carnival this weekend. That’s the last chance for non TFCAofGP schools to realistically get a qualifier. But the TFCAofGP Meet of Champions DMR should also be super fast. Some teams at the Carnival include Cheltenham and Pennsbury (currently in), State College, Spring Ford, Kennett, Conestoga and Penn Wood (not qualified for meet of champs) and WC Est and WC Rustin.

In my humble opinion, unless you are GFS, Carlisle, CR North or DT West, you’ve got to run this DMR at least one more time to improve your seed. I think it’s going to get down around 10:45 at the slowest just based on historic precedent for this event. Maybe we are in a weak year, but it doesn’t really feel like we have those anymore. Just look at the crop of 800 and mile types who are under the SQG. We’ve got nearly 40 in both categories. I can’t imagine we won’t see a few teams put together line ups on fast tracks with spikes and attack the first event of the day at Meet of Champs.