Projected State Cut Offs

These are my projections with scratches and conversions. Let me know if you guys catch any errors, repeats or have questions about my thinking behind the scratches. Note that this is just as estimate. I'm usually close but I never go 100% with accuracy. So stay tuned for the actual sheet that is sure to come out soon.

4x800m (16 Teams, SQG – 8:19.66, ET Projection – 8:14.50)

		School	Time	Date	w/ Conv	A/B
1	1	GFS	7:54.68B	11-Feb	7:54.68'	A
2	2	Pennsbury	7:57.11B	11-Feb	7:57.11'	A
3	3	State College	7:58.55B	11-Feb	7:58.55'	A
4	4	Carlisle	8:01.19'	15-Jan	7:58.79'	B*
5	5	CB West	8:05.34'	10-Feb	8:02.94'	A
6	6	LaSalle	8:06.05'	4-Feb	8:03.65'	A
7	7	CB East	8:09.03'	18-Feb	8:06.63'	A
8	8	Abington	8:07.79B	29-Dec	8:07.79'	A
9	9	Penn Wood	8:08.31B	4-Feb	8:08.31'	A
10	10	Seneca Valley	8:09.94O	18-Feb	8:09.94'	A
11	11	O'Hara	8:13.48'	4-Feb	8:11.08'	A
12	12	North Penn	8:13.99'	10-Feb	8:11.59'	A*
13	13	CR South	8:14.40'	10-Feb	8:12.00'	A
14	14	Shanahan	8:11.8hB	6-Feb	8:12.04'	B*
15	15	Radnor	8:16.78'	18-Feb	8:14.38'	A
16	16	Bensalem	8:16.90'	18-Feb	8:14.50'	A
17	OVER	DT East	8:16.95'	18-Feb	8:14.55'	A
18	OVER	Boyertown	8:17.11'	10-Feb	8:14.71'	A
19	OVER	DT West	8:17.39'	18-Feb	8:14.99'	A*
20	OVER	Mount Lebanon	8:16.39O	18-Feb	8:16.39'	A
21	OVER	Wissahickon	8:19.97'	10-Feb	8:17.57'	A*
22	OVER	Methacton	8:20.44'	18-Feb	8:18.04'	A
23	OVER	Cheltenham	8:18.56B	28-Jan	8:18.56'	A*
24	OVER	Ephrata	8:21.04'	4-Feb	8:18.64'	B*
25	OVER	Cumber Valley	8:21.94'	28-Jan	8:19.54'	A

History says we can expect little to no scratching for this one. So for that reason, I’m assuming everybody is entering a team and only the top 16 teams will be accepted. That being said, there’s some times that I think could run “B” squads and, therefore, may end up scratching. That would be Bishop Shanahan and O’Hara.

The #16 team is Bensalem, who dropped an 8:16.90 at Meet of Champs to pull out a clutch qualifying spot by just 0.05 seconds over DT East. I’m assuming that with 16 teams now being accepted, we will have two heats of this event. So that may mean the PTFCA accepts a couple extra teams. Personally, I think DT East, Boyertown and DT West could/should get in as they are all very close between 8:14.55 and 8:14.99. A 19 team final with one heat of 9 and one of 10 would be perfectly cool with me. Stick 10 in the fast heat and have the cut off an 8:10 to be a fast heat team.

That makes sense to me, but let’s see how it plays out.

Since 25 teams have the SQG, you could maybe have a two heat final with 12/13 in each heat and let everybody in. Would be nice to see Cumberland Valley and Ephrata get a shot. But I think 25 is just too big of a number for the PTFCA to do it.

Mile (20 Individuals, SQG – 4:31.73, Etrain Projected Cut Off – 4:30.77)

		Name		School	Time	Date	w/ Conv	Scratch?
1	1	Noah	Affolder	Carlisle	4:07.24B	11-Feb	4:07.24'	N
2		Josh	Hoey	Shanahan	4:09.26B	28-Jan	4:09.26'	Y
3	2	Sam	Affolder	Carlisle	4:13.45B	11-Feb	4:13.45'	N
4		Nick	Dahl	G Friends	4:14.68B	28-Jan	4:14.68'	Y
5	3	Tristan	Forsythe	W Thurston	4:17.13B	11-Feb	4:17.13'
6		Evan	Addison	LaSalle	4:19.25B	28-Jan	4:19.25'	Y
7	4	Phoenix	Myers	Seneca	4:18.96*O	12-Feb	4:20.56'
8		Nate	Henderson	McCaskey	4:20.05*	28-Jan	4:20.95'	Y
9	5	Brandon	Hontz	WC Rustin	4:23.40'	11-Feb	4:22.70'
10	6	Liam	Conway	OJ Roberts	4:23.54B	11-Jan	4:23.54'
11	7	James	Abrahams	Haverford	4:23.62B	28-Jan	4:23.62'
12		Ryan	James	O'Hara	4:24.71B	28-Jan	4:24.71'	Y
13	8	Eric	Kennedy	Kiski	4:23.14*O	12-Feb	4:24.74'
14		Joe	Cullen	Wyomissing	4:26.20'	11-Feb	4:25.50'	Y
15		Brendan	Price	LaSalle	4:25.55B	28-Jan	4:25.55'	Y
16		Matt	Eissler	Pennridge	4:25.75B	28-Jan	4:25.75'	Y
17		Gavin	Inglis	O'Hara	4:26.47'	12-Feb	4:25.77'	Y
18	9	Sam	Snodgrass	S Fayette	4:26.00O	18-Feb	4:26.00'
19	10	Josh	Higgins	C Valley	4:25.9HB	16-Feb	4:26.14'
20		Connor	McMenamin	Souderton	4:26.86'	11-Feb	4:26.16'	Y
21	11	Joseph	Cardie	Springfield	4:26.24B	7-Jan	4:26.24'
22	12	Matt	Scarpill	CB South	4:26.94'	10-Feb	4:26.24'
23		Spencer	Smucker	Henderson	4:26.57B	28-Jan	4:26.57'	Y
24	13	Colin	Mihalak	Coatesville	4:27.29'	18-Feb	4:26.59'
25		Seth	Slavin	PleasValley	4:26.04*B	7-Jan	4:27.64'	Y
26		Patrick	James	O'Hara	4:28.46'	11-Feb	4:27.76'	Y
27		Noah	Beveridge	Butler	4:26.19*A	21-Jan	4:27.79'	Y
28		Ben	Bumgarner	Waynesburg	4:26.33*Y	21-Jan	4:27.93'	Y
29		Ryan	Campbell	CR North	4:28.70'	10-Feb	4:28.00'	Y
30		Will	Griffen	Cheltenham	4:28.32B	29-Dec	4:28.32'	Y
31	14	Sam	Owori	S Valley	4:28.42O	28-Jan	4:28.42'
32	15	Mark	Brown	G Salem	4:27.13*O	12-Feb	4:28.73'	N
33	16	Eric	Kersten	Pennsbury	4:28.86B	7-Jan	4:28.86'	N
34	17	Sean	Brown	RCatholic	4:29.63'	18-Feb	4:28.93'
35		Jed	Scratchard	Pennsbury	4:29.65'	14-Jan	4:28.95'	Y
36		Hudson	Delisle	Quakertown	4:29.66B	7-Jan	4:29.66'	Y
37		Rusty	Kujdych	Neshaminy	4:30.44'	30-Dec	4:29.74'	Y
38		Matt	D'Aquila	L Merion	4:30.49'	10-Feb	4:29.79'	Y
39	18	Callahan	Lennon	HG Prep	4:30.16B	28-Jan	4:30.16'	N
40		Avery	Lederer	Penncrest	4:30.90'	10-Feb	4:30.20'	Y
41		Brendan	O'Toole	North Penn	4:30.44B	7-Jan	4:30.33'	Y
42	19	Ryan	Barton	DT West	4:30.62B	21-Jan	4:30.62'	N
43	20	Jacob	Shulte	Bishop McCourt	4:29.17*Y	18-Feb	4:30.77'
44		Bryan	Keller	CR North	4:31.07B	28-Jan	4:31.07'	Y
45	OVER	Stephen	Gray	S Lehigh	4:29.56*B	7-Jan	4:31.16'
46		Sam	Early	CR North	4:32.24'	18-Feb	4:31.54'	Y
47	OVER	Jarrett	Boyd	Freedom	4:31.54O	18-Feb	4:31.54'
48	OVER	Kevin	Dineen	HG Prep	4:31.70B	28-Jan	4:31.70'	N
49	OVER	Cameron	Binda	Greens Salem	4:30.25*Y	7-Jan	4:31.85'
50	OVER	Thomas	Matsumura	S Lehigh	4:31.91B	29-Dec	4:31.91'	N
51		Jack	Downing	Henderson	4:31.94B	28-Jan	4:31.94'	Y
52	OVER	Matt	O'Neill	Norwin	4:30.45*B	11-Feb	4:32.05'
53	OVER	Jonah	Powell	Grove City	4:30.76*Y	18-Feb	4:32.36'
54	OVER	Noah	Curtin	Mercyhurst	4:32.65O	18-Feb	4:32.65'
55	OVER	Kyle	Burke	Ab Heights	4:33.58'	11-Feb	4:32.88'

Mile is going to be interesting because of all the potential for relay scratches, 800 scratches and 3k scratches. I’ve got a ton of guys scratching out, but you will have to look and see for yourself whether you agree with each of them. This spot moves back and forth a lot during the season. But it appears some guys with the SQG will end up at home. However, coaches make sure you enter everybody who is close. You never know.

800m (24 Individuals, SQG – 2:00.13, Etrain Projected Cut Off – 1:59.10)

Overall	Proj	Name		School	Time	Date	w/ Conv	Scrath?
1		Noah	Affolder	Carlisle	1:54.72'	15-Jan	1:54.12'	Y
2	1	Ryan	Thrush	Brookville	1:54.43O	4-Feb	1:54.43'
3	2	Josh	Hoey	Bishop Shanahan	1:54.50B	7-Jan	1:54.50'	N
4	3	Sam	Affolder	Carlisle	1:56.32'	28-Jan	1:55.72'	N
5	4	Nick	Wagner	Penn Trafford	1:56.38B	7-Jan	1:56.38'
6	5	Joe	Cullen	Wyomissing	1:56.51B	21-Jan	1:56.51'
7		Jake	Claricurzio	CB West	1:57.35'	4-Feb	1:56.75'	Y
8	6	Peter	Cooke	Radnor	1:56.87B	7-Jan	1:56.87'
9	7	Matt	Eissler	Pennridge	1:56.89B	7-Jan	1:56.89'
10	8	Collin	Ebling	Pottsville	1:56.92B	7-Jan	1:56.92'
11	9	Hudson	Delisle	Quakertown	1:57.68'	4-Feb	1:57.08'
12	10	Luke	Everidge	Central Dauphin East	1:57.18B	28-Jan	1:57.18'
13	11	Christopher	Cameron	Wissahickon	1:57.37B	28-Jan	1:57.37'
14	12	Liam	Conway	Owen J Roberts	1:57.44B	28-Jan	1:57.44'
15		Ata	Shahideh	CB East	1:58.09'	4-Feb	1:57.49'	Y
16	13	Marc	Motter	CB East	1:57.55B	28-Jan	1:57.55'	N
17	14	Jed	Scratchard	Pennsbury	1:57.60B	28-Jan	1:57.60'	N
18		Nick	Feffer	State College	1:58.43'	28-Jan	1:57.83'	Y
19		Brandon	Hontz	West Chester Rustin	1:58.52'	10-Jan	1:57.92'	Y
20	15	Derek	Jones	Cathedral Prep	1:57.92O	2-Feb	1:57.92'
21	16	Kamil	Jihad	Neumann Goretti	1:58.61'	28-Jan	1:58.01'
22	17	Isaiah	Bailey	Penn Hills	1:58.15O	18-Feb	1:58.15'
23	18	Matt	Kraus	William Tennent	1:58.77'	18-Feb	1:58.17'
24	19	Frankie	King	Greensburg Salem	1:58.38O	18-Feb	1:58.38'
25	20	Logan	Yoquinto	Bishop Shanahan	1:58.41B	28-Jan	1:58.41'	N
26	21	Dennis	Manyeah	Penn Wood	1:59.12'	10-Feb	1:58.52'	N
27	22	Austin	Padmore	Milton Hershey	1:59.20'	28-Jan	1:58.60'
28	23	Daniel	Santiago	North Penn	1:58.75B	7-Jan	1:58.75'
29		Bryan	Keller	CR North	1:59.38'	10-Feb	1:58.78'	Y
30	24	Dave	Whitfield	Bonner	1:59.10B	28-Jan	1:59.10'
31	OVER	Robert	Dupell	St. Joe's Prep	1:59.16B	28-Jan	1:59.16'	N
32	OVER	Derin	Klick	Lebanon	1:59.25B	7-Jan	1:59.25'
33	OVER	Aqeel	Bacchus	Bensalem	2:00.04'	21-Jan	1:59.44'
34	OVER	Dylan	Binda	Greensburg Salem	1:59.55O	12-Feb	1:59.55'
35	OVER	Seth	Phillips	Mifflin County	1:59.4hB	19-Jan	1:59.64'
36	OVER	Jarnail	Dhillon	Upper Darby	1:59.71B	28-Jan	1:59.71'
37		Nathan	Henderson	JP McCaskey	2:00.40'	28-Jan	1:59.80'	Y
38	OVER	Zach	Ehling	North Allegheny	1:59.81O	14-Jan	1:59.81'
39	OVER	Calvin	Willie	St Joe's Prep	2:00.43'	4-Feb	1:59.83'
40	OVER	Austin	Howell	Pennridge	1:59.91B	28-Jan	1:59.91'
41	OVER	Donovan	Myers	Seneca	1:59.95O	7-Jan	1:59.95'
42	OVER	Brett	Zatlin	Great Valley	2:00.13B	21-Jan	2:00.13'
43	OVER	Michael	Clark	Methacton	2:00.13B	28-Jan	2:00.13'
44	OVER	Javier	Linares	Pennsbury	2:01.10'	10-Feb	2:00.50'	N

The 800 is crowded man. I feel bad. There’s so many fast guys and not only are they going to have sweat out the weekend, but they are also going to have to fight it out in some of the slow heats. This is going to be a crazy event come states. The big scratches to keep an eye on are the Affolders. No clue what they are doing. Claricurzio is another one up in the air. Pennsbury making it in for the DMR could lead to another scratch. I think the cut off ends up right around 1:59 flat but no guarantees.

3,000m (12 Entries, SQG – 8:59.43, Etrian Projected Cut Off – 8:57.30)

		Name		School	Time	Date	w/ Conv	Scratch?
1		Nick	Dahl	GFS	8:30.62B	21-Jan	8:30.62'	Y
2	1	Ben	Bumgarner	Waynesburg Central	9:16.14*O	12-Feb	8:41.14'
3	2	Nathan	Henderson	JP McCaskey	8:43.79'	11-Feb	8:42.99'
4	3	Rusty	Kujdych	Neshaminy	8:44.73'	7-Jan	8:43.93'	N
5		Evan	Addison	LaSalle	8:46.99'	7-Jan	8:46.19'	Y
6	4	Connor	McMenamin	Souderton	8:48.00'	18-Feb	8:47.20'
7	5	Seth	Slavin	Pleasant Valley	9:28.05"B	28-Jan	8:50.05'
8	6	Zach	Lefever	Ephrata	8:51.35'	11-Feb	8:50.55'
9		Will	Griffen	Cheltenham	9:30.41"B	28-Jan	8:52.41'	Y
10	7	Aaron	Pfeil	South Fayette	8:52.92O	18-Feb	8:52.92'
11		Ryan	Campbell	CR North	9:31.23"B	28-Jan	8:53.23'	Y
12	8	Noah	Beveridge	Butler	8:56.20O	14-Jan	8:56.20'
13	9	Sean	Rahill	William Tennent	8:57.30'	4-Feb	8:56.50'
14	10	Avery	Lederer	Penncrest	9:35.08"B	21-Jan	8:57.08'
15		Matt	D'Aquila	Lower Merion	9:35.14"B	28-Jan	8:57.14'	Y
16	11	Matt	Scarpill	CB South	8:58.00'	18-Feb	8:57.20'
17		Gavin	Inglis	O'Hara	8:58.09'	13-Jan	8:57.29'	Y
18	12	Brendan	O'Toole	North Penn	8:58.10'	4-Feb	8:57.30'
19	OVER	Ben	Bunch	CB West	8:58.72'	4-Feb	8:57.92'	N
20	OVER	Carlos	Shultz	Conestoga	8:59.39'	11-Feb	8:58.59'
21	OVER	David	Haines	North Pocono	8:59.43'	28-Jan	8:58.63'
22	OVER	Tyler	Rollins	DT West	8:59.67'	18-Feb	8:58.87'
23	OVER	Brian	Mass	CB West	8:59.68'	10-Feb	8:58.88'	N
24		Ryan	James	O'Hara	8:59.71'	13-Jan	8:58.91'	Y
25	OVER	Eric	Kersten	Pennsbury	9:00.62'	4-Feb	8:59.82'	N

The 3k is one of the few individual events that the PTFCA sometimes extends to let other guys in. We do have a couple guys currently left out who have hit the SQG. Some of these guys may scratch as well (which CB West guys are on the DMR? I’m not sure either are currently) so there’s a very outside chance they put in all the SQG guys. However, like I’ve said with the other events don’t get your hopes up.

The big event that should help with scratches is the DMR. Lots of top guys here overlap with the DMR. That opens the door a bit for people to squeak in.

DMR (12 Teams, SQG – 10:40.73, Etrain Projected Cut Off – 10:44.61)

		School	Time	Date	w/ Conv	A/B
1	1	Carlisle	10:21.45'	15-Jan	10:18.95'	A*
2	2	GFS	10:23.15B	14-Jan	10:23.15'	A
3	3	O'Hara	10:33.65'	18-Feb	10:31.15'	A
4	4	CB West	10:34.17'	18-Feb	10:31.67'	A
5	5	CR North	10:38.19'	4-Feb	10:35.69'	A
6	6	WC Henderson	10:36.1hB	6-Feb	10:36.34'	A
7	7	State College	10:36.3HB	16-Feb	10:36.54'	A
8	8	LaSalle	10:39.87'	18-Feb	10:37.37'	A
9	9	Lower Merion	10:38.0hB	6-Feb	10:38.24'	A
10	10	DT West	10:40.60B	20-Jan	10:40.60'	A
11	11	W Chester Rustin	10:43.46'	18-Feb	10:40.96'	A
12	12	Cheltenham	10:47.11'	18-Feb	10:44.61'	A
13	OVER	Pennsbury	10:45.14B	7-Jan	10:45.14'	A
14	OVER	Holy Ghost Prep	10:47.28B	29-Dec	10:47.28'	A
15	OVER	Boyertown	10:51.49'	18-Feb	10:48.99'	A
16	OVER	CB East	10:51.78'	10-Feb	10:49.28'	A*
17	OVER	Seneca Valley	10:52.72O	11-Feb	10:52.72'	A
18	OVER	Quakertown	11:00.65'	10-Feb	10:58.15'	A
19	OVER	North Penn	11:01.44'	14-Jan	10:58.94'	A*
20	OVER	Father Judge	11:02.08'	12-Feb	10:59.58'	A
21	OVER	Haverford	11:02.43'	31-Jan	10:59.93'	A

As expected, the meet of champs shook up the state qualifying picture. A few teams better their marks and others broke into the mix. In total, half of the qualifying teams ran the meet of champs including the last 4 teams to get into the meet. Pennsbury, who didn’t run at MoCs, appears to now be sitting on the outside looking in at the 13 spot. However, they and Holy Ghost Prep both have outside shots of getting into the state meet if they extend the field out to the 13-14 spots like they have in the past. As with the 4x8, I expect no teams here to scratch. And honestly, we are probably going to see most if not all of these team’s absolute “A” squads on race day.

Shout out to Boyertown for an awesome DMR performance at Meet of Champs. They sit at 15 and 18 right now in the relays, just barely out of both races. I hope they can get into one of these meets as they’ve been a terrific team this year.