State Breakdown: 3,000

By Jarrett Felix

We’ve talked mile, we’ve talked 800, now it’s time to round out the individual distance events with the 3k. This one should be a fun one given the speculation I’ve already seen. And for reference ...

2/2 3,000 State Rankings
2/2 DMR Rankings
2/2 800m Rankings
2/2 Mile Rankings
2/2 4x800m Rankings

The Event

This event will always get some scratches. The DMR and the 3k are actually closer than they used to be under the old schedule (because 4x8s are at the beginning), meaning the 3k-DMR double just got even harder. Guys tried it under the old schedule and they continue to try it under the new (Jake Brophy did it a year ago), but I’m sure Jake would tell you it’s a brutal thing to attempt.

In 2015, everyone who hit the SQG got into the meet was they extended the field up to 13 guys. Last year, the state was much faster. They let in 14 guys (they list 12 as the max on their site) and the cut off was 8:56.13. Only a couple guys (I believe 3) hit the SQG but did not get into the race.

If you look back at the amount of qualifiers before the maximum was put in place, you could see it fluctuates quite a bit. We’ve had over 20 guys run under 9 minutes and not scratch out of this event in the past. If you are a miler and are not on a DMR, there’s no downside to doubling back in the 3k if you have the qualifier so that cuts down on the projected scratches. My gut at this point says it will take right around 8:58-8:59 to get into states this year as I don’t see this being an absurdly loaded year. That being said, a lot can still happen over the coming weeks, especially in District 3 and District 7, two typical powerhouses who have been relatively quiet to date.

What Has Actually Happened So Far

Well what has happened so far is a similar story for Mr. Nick Dahl. The Germantown Friends Senior has been one of the top 3k runners in the state for the past three years. This year, he dropped an 8:30.62 at Yale. If he ran that exact time at states, it would make him the third fastest in recent meet history. The time is currently over 13 seconds faster than anyone else’s current seed.

However, I’d bet a good amount of UFC points that Dahl scratches the 3k for the third straight year. GFS seems pretty dedicated to pursuing that DMR title and, considering Carlisle is apparently going to double and triple everywhere they can, that DMR gold is very much in play if you handle yourselves conservatively. Plus, with Hoey looking like a scratch in the mile, Dahl may be the favorite in that individual as well.

Rusty Kujdcyh of Neshaminy has looked excellent so far this year. He’s picked up wins just about everywhere he has went and the junior is current #2 in the state after a fantastic duel with Evan Addison of LaSalle, winning 8:44 to 8:46. Kujdych is the man to beat right now in the 3k. This is his second straight season under 8:50, he won the District One Championships by a landslide, and he’s hungry for vengeance after the way his XC season ended.

As for Addison, I see him as a scratch similar to Dahl. He’s run some excellent miles, including a 4:19 victory this past weekend, and he’s also going to have DMR duty on a team with a strong history in that event. Add in the possible 4x8 obligations and his schedule seems a little too jam packed to squeeze in a 3k.

Seth Slavin is making a compelling case for himself as a state title contender. He’s been running in some fast fields on some fast tracks, but you can’t deny that he has been consistently producing some fast times. In over distance, Slavin has run 9:28 for a full two miles. By PTFCA conversions, that’s worth 8:50.0, but by most other metrics, it’s down closer to Kujdych and Addison’s times. Until Henderson punches a ticket, Slavin is the #1 returner in the 3k from last year’s state meet.

It’s actually been the year of the 2 mile in indoors. Out of the top 16 times in the state, 8 of them are conversions from either a 2 mile or a 3200. That’s pretty wild and pretty unprecedented. It goes to show you that A) Not a lot of out of state meets have 3ks and B) Our guys are flocking to out of state meets. Those two mile times have been pretty darn strong with Will Griffen, Ryan Campbell, Avery Lederer and Matt D’Aquila all running 9:35 or faster for the full 2-mile distance.

DMR qualifying should have a big impact on who ultimately ends up in this event. GFS, LaSalle, Cheltenham, CRN, Butler, Lower Merion, O’Hara, Coatesville, Carlisle and Henderson combine for 11 of the top 19 spots. All those schools are in the DMR hunt as of right now and whether or not they qualify could really swing where the cut-off ends up in this event.

What Might Happen Next

The top 3 finishers from this past year’s outdoor state championship have yet to dip their toes in the water of the 3k. That includes Sam and Noah Affolder and Nate Henderson, all of District 3. Henderson is the top returner from a year ago in this event and the Affolders-well, I think by now everyone has realized how good they are. These guys will swing the balance of power in this race. If one of them jumps in, they become the favorite immediately (assuming Dahl is a scratch), if not, this thing could be pretty wide open.

I know a lot of people have given Noah some consideration for gold in this event, but 1) that DMR is looming just after this event and with his teammates doubling and tripling around him, they could really use a lock down anchor to guarantee a top 2 spot. And 2) he’s running out of time to qualify. Right now, he’s only qualified in the 800 for individual events. He’s running the Mile at Millrose. And I assume he’s going to want to rest up some before that race as well as states. I just don’t think the 3k makes sense for him. I’m kinda sticking to that 4x8-8-DMR triple I outlined. I think similarly about Sam who seems like maybe a Mile-DMR double or Mile-8-DMR triple (that would be brutal) is in play.

I expect to see Henderson in a 3k sooner rather than later. His speed is there after an awesome 1600 performance, but I think his favorite events are probably still the longer stuff. With the Affolders and Dahl focusing on other things, I think the title could come down to Henderson and Kujdych. But I really like a few sleepers that I’ll talk about it in a sec.

Some other guys without qualifying times that should be in the mix are guys like Isaac Kole from Carlisle and Connor McMenamin from Souderton. We may also see a run from some big names out West. Maybe Tristan Forsythe jumps up and tries this event. Does Mark Provenzo run indoors? A state champ Noah Curtin? I’m really banking on a fast TSTCA 3k happening before the season is over and lots of guys dropping until the 8:50s as a result.

Remember the run we had on the 800 rankings last weekend? I outlined that in my 800 post before it happened (blatant brag). I feel like a 3k boom may be on the horizon as well, but I couldn’t tell you who it’s going to be. Give me your thoughts on this in the comment section.

Way Too Early Predictions

1.       I’m seeing lots of scratches. You can disagree with me if you’d like, but I see Dahl, Addison, Griffen, the O’Hara boys, D’Aquila, and the Affolders all as scratches when the dust settles. That leaves Kujdych and Slavin as the top qualifiers on paper with Henderson suspected to work himself into the mix.

2.       But I currently am not picking any of those guys to win. Yes, I’ve been playing this upset pick slow all post. You may have been wondering why I haven’t talked about three of the best dudes in the state this whole time? I think Noah Beveridge, Ben Bumgarner and Zach Lefever are going to be awesome down the stretch. At least one of those guys if not all three can definitely pop something fast and dip into the 8:40s prior to states. At states, I think a run in the 8:30s is not out of the question and that may be good enough to win.

3.       Don’t sleep on David Haines from North Pocono. The kid had a very nice XC season, but really took it to the next level with an unreal regional performance. Now he opens up with a very quick 8:59 in a smaller meet that a lot of guys probably missed. Remember his teammate Matt Kravitz won the outdoor 3200 last year over a strong group of guys with faster PRs.

4.       In terms of guys who haven’t qualified yet, I want to see if Isaac Davis from Jersey Shore races again this year. He was a force to reckoned with during cross country, he’s not afraid to get out and run hard and run fast, and he could definitely help make things interesting in a state final. If you add him to the mix with Henderson and Kujdych, I think we should see a fast pace. None of those guys are afraid of getting out hard and Henderson in particular is really good at pushing the middle-late part of the race with a gutsy surge. If someone like Affolder or Dahl did end up in this race, sub 8:30 would 100% be in play considering the strategies of the players in this race.