by Jarrett Felix
Let’s
talk briefly about who it looks like is running what this weekend and what this
means for the state qualifying picture.
So I
haven’t seen an actual performance list, but I’m trusting my boy Dan Beck to
have the inside scoop. He highlights the following key distance entries:
Mile – Noah Beveridge, Sam Snodgrass,
Sam Owori, Matt O’Neill
800m – Isaiah Bailey, Nick Wagner, Zach
Ehling, Frankie King, Dylan Binda
3,000m – Aaron Pfeil, Casey Conboy, Trey
Razanauskas, Cameron Binda (it says Dylan, but I’m assuming this should be his
brother)
So what
does this mean? Well for starters, Noah Beveridge’s performance could dictate
what event he wants to run at states. His 8:56.20 is currently 11th
in the state (#7 with scratches) and his mile slots him at 25th.
However, if he runs in the low 4:20s he could jump into the top 10 in this event
pretty quickly. I’d certainly say Beveridge is the favorite, but there is a
nice group of up and comers to challenge him.
One of
those is Sam Snodgrass who has run 4:26 for 1600 meters this year. That puts
him just behind Beveridge in the state standings. He’s 28th on the
rankings right now (20 are accepted to states) so he may be looking to bolster
his position to make sure he gets into states. Similar case for Sam Owori who
has run 4:27 for 1600. I’ve got both those guys getting in as things stand when
scratches come into play, but a 4:24ish type time would help both sleep at
night.
Matt O’Neill
has run 4:30 for 1600 so he’s another bubble guy (I have him as the #2 guy out
as of now). O’Neill had a monster XC regional run and could pull out something
impressive under similar post season circumstances.
As of
now, the 800 is a blood bath and things are only going to get more stacked
after this weekend unfolds. As of the typing of this post, we’ve got 43 guys at
the SQG and very little scratches in the mix. That means sub 2 guys like Binda,
King and Ehling are all on the bubble. Bailey will need a faster time to get
into the hot heat, but I think he’s safe to get into the meet at 1:58.72
(although I suppose you never know). Nick Wagner looks like he will make the
hot heat (he’s 5th in the state), but a big win at these
championships would give him some much needed momentum as he looks to spring a
state championship upset at PSU.
In the 3k,
only Aaron Pfeil (at 9:03) is within striking distance of the SQG as things
currently stand. That being said, Conboy has run under 9:20 for a 3200 before
so you know he’s got the talent. Trey Razanauskas had a huge day at WPIALs
during XC and could maybe duplicate it. Binda has shown strong mile prowess and
may be ready to pop a big 3k. As things currently stand, someone will need to
pop off something in the 8:57-8:58 range to get to PSU.
There
was no mention of the relays, but if you consider a team like Seneca,
Winchester Thurston, Seneca Valley, Greensburg Salem or North Allegheny all
those teams have strong contingents. As of now, Seneca Valley is #14 in the
4x8. Only 16 teams will be accepted to states (apparently) so they are far from
safe as things stand. SV is also at #14 in the DMR, where only 12 teams are
scheduled to be accepted. They ran both relays hot last weekend so they may be
content to ride it out and see what happens. Hopefully, we get at least one
western team into the state meet. It just makes more sense that way.
Youngstown Meet #4 (https://www.scribd.com/document/339527193/YSU-4-Accepted-Entries#from_embed)
Some
key entries for this one …
800m –
Ryan Thrush, Billy Lott
1600m –
Billy Lott, Zach Case, Jonah Powell, Logan Lukonic
3200m –
Harrison Keenan, Joey Buehner, Tristan Forsythe, Logan Lukonic
There’s
a few state long shots in these events, most notably Billy Lott and Logan
Lukonic in the 1600. Lott has run some solid marks, hovering around the 50-60
mark in the state at times. If he catches the right pace and has a big day, he could
maybe sneak down to 4:30 and punch a ticket. Lukonic has run 4:31 this year and
gone head to head with Eric Kennedy (who is now in the 4:23 range). Logan has a
chance for a huge day.
Thrush
is already the two seed in the 800 and among the top seeds in the 400. He’s
running both at this meet. It’s going to be interesting to see how he handles
the double as it could give us some insight into what schedule he will be
attempting at state. Does he preference in event? Does he think he can double
both effectively?
Tristan
Forsythe is coming off a fantastic run in the mile at Millrose. If he runs a
solid 3k, he will almost certainly give the mile-3k double a shot and see how
he fares in both events. He’s have to run about 9:32 for 3200 to get himself in
the state conversation for 3k (35 second conversion). The wild card would be if
Forsythe runs down in the low 9:20s, he could conceivably like his odds better
in a somewhat wide open 3k instead of a match up with the Affolder boys in the
mile. I doubt that happens, but it’s something to keep in the back of your
mind.
TFCAofGP Meet of Champions (http://pa.milesplit.com/meets/254662/results/497185/raw#.WKcI1DsrKUk)
Alright
East Coasters, your time has come. This meet is always a ton of fun. Especially
because the DMR is the very first event. So right from the start, we’ve got
teams gunning it for SQGs in perhaps the most up in the air event of the state
championships (at least at states 6-12). With State College running under
10:40, the pressure is turned up that much more for teams to work to the low
10:40s on race day.
My
tentative guess is LaSalle, Cheltenham, CB West and O’Hara will run “A” teams
in this event and set themselves up for states. As of now LaSalle is #7,
Cheltenham is #13, West is #15 an O’Hara is #16. Lower Merion could give this a
shot, but they are in the sub 10:40 club and should be safe (it would take a
crazy weekend to knock them out and even still, the PTFCA might feel compelled
to extend the field an extra few spots). O’Hara, the two time defending champs,
will have the spotlight on them.
The
wildcards are teams like Boyertown, CR South, Quakertown and Father Judge. All
of these teams have shown flashes of potential and each of run top 24 marks in the
state this year. I think one of them pops a sub 10:50 time, but don’t ask me
who. Upper Darby is another team who always seems to show up at this meet and
pull out an SQG. Usually it’s in the 4x8, but maybe this year they hit on the
DM.
West
Chester Rustin, HG Prep and CB East are other teams who are currently in, but
may not feel comfortable with their seed. They are 10-12 as of now. HG Prep and
Rustin would likely be running in the slow heat based on seed times. I’m sure
Father Judge would like to see at least one of those teams involved as it would
give them a nice target to chase in that slower section (and I think HGP will
do it at the very least). CB East has a 4x8 to consider as well since they are
currently on the outside looking in for the top 16. They are one of the most
intriguing teams to me heading into this weekend and next. They’ve got none of
their projected relay guys in the open events this weekend so a DMR-4x8 double
is in play.
In the
mile, I’m excited to see Ryan Campbell and Jed Scratchard go head to head. I
don’t expect either guy to enter the state meet (although CRN isn’t running a
4x8 this week which means they only have one relay to worry about), but these
guys are both really talented. It’s a good match-up between speed based miler
and strength based miler.
Sean
Brown, Colin Mihalak and Brendan O’Toole are all milers on the bubble for
states. They should help keep this race fast and interesting.
The 800
is going to be a ton of fun. Out of the current top 14 guys in the state, we
have 5 guys entered. Most of those are bubble fast heat guys who could be climb
in or get knocked out of that top 8 this weekend depending on how things
unfold. Jake Claricurzio leads that group at 1:57.35 and he’s flanked by Cooke,
Eissler, and Delisle. Cameron (#13 currently) is going to run out of a slower
heat based on his seed (he’s #21) which could work out well. Some of the guys
around him include Jarnail Dhillon, Aqeel Bacchus, Matt Kraus and Cameron
Mitchell, all of which are sub 2 types.
I think
the guy to watch is Kamil Jihad. He’s #11 in the seeding, but will be looking
for a fast time to help set him up at states. Not sure what heat he will end up
in for this one.
There’s
a ton of bubble guys in this race as well. As mentioned, the 800 is absolute
madness right now and it could conceivably take 1:58.5 banked equiv to make
states. That makes for a super competitive race here at Lehigh (hopefully they
don’t pack the heats so these kids can actually race). Dennis Manyeah and Dave
Whitfield are 1:53 guys who will be in attendance. Bryan Keller is a really
strong 800 runner out of CRN who is coming on at the right time. He’s run 1:55
before. Plus, we have Brandon Hontz of WC Rustin who has been on fire as of
late.
This 3k
could be really fun. We get our rematch of Kujdych and Addison from that
amazing Association meet a few weeks back. We also get a rematch of the CB West
boys (Bunch and Mass), plus the key players from the very fast 2/4 association
meet (McMenamin, Rahill, O’Toole, Kersten). Then you have a great group of
bubble guys in Schulz, Paul, Derafelo and Borger, all of whom are under 9:10
and have the chance to hit the SQG if things break right.
Conceivably
we could have a 3k heat 2 with Scarpill, Lederer, and D’Aquila. That’s crazy.
Lederer and D’Aquila have already proven they can run fast (2 miles outside the
TFCAofGP) and Scarpill is coming off a terrific mile. These guys are going to
make for a 3k heat that should steal medals from the fast one. They’ve also got
guys like Anthony Harper, Ethan Koza, Jake Robinson, Jonathan McGrory and Matt
Maiale who have shown intriguing potential.
Ultimately,
this 3k should tell us a lot about McMenamin state title hopes as he gets to go
up against Kujdych in a District One Championship rematch. If Addison can throw
down an even faster 3k, what does that mean about his state schedule? LaSalle
will have some tough choices to make.
Speaking
of LaSalle, they and CB West are the top seeds in the 4x8. I’m not sure we will
see “A” teams from either of them, but even “B” squads from these schools are
SQG level. I think CB West has some 4x4 duties to go after so we probably won’t
see Claricurzio double back (triple back if he has DMR duties). A 3k-4x8 double
is essentially impossible for Addison under this schedule.
O’Hara didn’t
enter anyone individually, so I do expect them to attack the 4x8. If their DMR
has a mishap, they will need a fast 4x8 time to make sure they get a relay to
states. North Penn is interesting here as they’ve got many top individuals
entered in open events. I think they are comfortable that their 8:13 will get
them into states, but they won’t be in the fast heat (unless the field gets stretched).
Pennsbury also has a slew of individuals entered in open events so at the very
least this is a tired roster for them.
So what
I’m trying to say is this race looks pretty wide open. Remember when Upper
Darby won it from the slow heat a few years back over state title favorites
Bensalem? Maybe we see something like that this year. Could HG Prep do
something? What about DT East (I like this squad’s potential)? Or St. Joe’s
Prep? I didn’t see Duppell or Green entered in anything so maybe they want to
get after the 4x8? Of course their 4x4 is really strong as well so they are
more likely saving up for that. But the most likely team is CB East. They are
listed as NT, but I thought they had an 8:19ish on their resume from an
association meet? So they could end up in the fast heat before all is said and
done. East has two sub 2 guys and a couple other in the ball park. They could
run 8:05 or faster if everything clicks.
This race
should have big impact on the state bubble. Teams like Methacton, William Tennent,
DT West, DT East and Wissahickon could all take their shots here. Methacton
seems highly probably to be going after this race. I didn’t see their guys
entered anywhere else at a quick glance and they need a drop to get into states
(currently #20). They have the pieces to make it happen.
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