Show Me The Money: 2017 Indoor Edition

By: Garrett Zatlin

It's the unofficial half-way point of the track season (maybe a little over) which means it's time for another 'Show Me The Money' article!

For those who have taken the time to read the contributors page, you'll see that I am an economics major who has taken an interest in the stock market. Naturally, I thought it would be a good idea to combine my two interests of running and financials to create this article. It's surprising how similar the process is for predicting the success of publicly traded companies and distance runners...

Here are some quick phrases you'll need to know before diving in...

• Bullish- There is a lot of confidence in the stock and the outlook for success is positive.
• Bearish- There are many doubts about the stock and the outlook for success is negative.
• Neutral- The stock not swinging one way or another. It is simply stuck at a point of no decision.

BULLISH: Sub-Four Milers

The 800 was the event of the year in 2016. The incredibly fast NCAA cut-off time and the number of individuals under 1:50 made it a legendary year to be a half-miler. But what we failed to recognize was the other event that also got faster: the mile.

By the end of the 2015-2016 indoor track season, the number of milers under four minutes was at a grand total of 35. That beat the 2011-2012 record of 33. Ironically, I listed milers as "Bearish" in this article last year.

As we come into another year of athletes progressively getting faster, we are actually ahead of the 2015-2016 halfway mark for the number of sub-four milers. 

At this point last year, 14 men had dipped under the four minute barrier while the other 21 earned sub-four marks throughout the rest of February. So far this season, we have 16 runners under the four-minute mark with a lot of top-tier milers still yet to run (think Edward Cheserek, Morgan McDonald, Sean McGorty, and Grant Fisher).

It's crazy to think that we may best last year's total without guys like Ahmed Bile, Clayton Murphy, or Tommy Awad. 

Side Note... Of the 16 runners that are currently under four minutes, Syracuse, Colorado, and Michigan each have three. Those three programs make up ~56% of the sub-four milers at this point.

BEARISH: Traditional DMR Schools
Is it just me, or have the DMR's been very underwhelming? At this point last year, we had three relays under 9:30.

So far this year? None.

Many programs that historically pursue the DMR no longer have elite anchors to drag their squad into NCAA's. Penn State no longer has Kidder, Oklahoma State no longer has Noelle, Georgetown lost Bile and Williams, Washington lost Yorks, and Villanova graduated Williamsz.

With so many top-notch athletes gone, I can't see the DMR being as competitive as it has been in past years. Do I think the relays will get faster as we enter mid-to-late February? Absolutely. However, don't expect the cut-off time to be anything like 9:30 like it was last year. I imagine it will be closer to 9:33-34.

BULLISH: Young Alum
On New Years eve, I wrote an article discussing how the future of our PA alumni was bright. So far, that theory has held true.

Around the nation, our alumni have been killing it. Let's start with Domenic Perretta who has been one of the most impressive freshman in the nation so far. The Nittany Lion recorded a time of 2:23 in his opening race of the season which led to a 1:49 performance and a 2:55 1200 split in a DMR. That's a lot of solid work for a true freshman.

Meanwhile, freshman Nick Wolk has been tearing up the track in Pittsburgh with outstanding times of 8:15 which was followed by a DMR split of 4:08. Could Wolk develop and become the super-star that Pittsburgh has been looking? So far it sure seems that way...

And how about Sam Ritz? After a cross country season dealing with injuries, the Columbia sophomore threw down times of 2:24 and 4:07.

That's just a small hand-full of underclassman names. That doesn't include other alumni like Andrew Marston, Casey Comber, Colin Abert, and John Lewis who have picked up where they left off last year.

BEARISH: Potential Oregon NCAA Qualifiers
For the past few years, Oregon has dominated the distance scene and has relied on their depth to earn multiple team titles at nationals. But this year is a little bit different. They still have Cheserek and a championship candidate in Maton, but will anyone else be able to qualify?

Haney has been struggling the past few seasons. He was absent for a good portion of this past cross country season and has only run in two races this season with a 4:09 mile and a DNF in the 3000 (both at the East-West Challenge). Last year he was in the discussion to win the national title in the mile. Now it's looking like he may not even qualify.

And Jake Leingang? He's no longer with team after transferring to North Dakota State. He was typically a threat to qualify in the 5000.

The rest of the squad is talented, but they are also incredibly young. Austin Tomagno, Jack Yearian, Jackson Metsler, and Mick Stanovsek have thrown down some very respectable times this season, but I imagine it will take another year for them to get into national qualifying fitness.

Additionally, Tim Gorman has run 4:01 and Tanner Anderson have run 8:02. Those are very solid performances, but as we get later and later into the season the NCAA qualifying times will only get faster and faster. These two would need to drop a lot of time in order to make it.

The next few years look positive for the Ducks, but they may not be able to defend their team title in 2017.

NEUTRAL: Altitude and Flat-Track Conversion Times
I recently had a discussion with some of my fellow blog contributors about the validity of altitude and flat-track conversions. It seems like more and more programs are beginning to take advantage of these conversions and they are showing in the NCAA standings.

Of the top 16 spots in each distance event...
-the 800 has 5 converted times
-the mile has 7 converted times
-the 3000 has 4 converted times
-the 5000 has 2 converted times

It's important to note that the top five times in the mile were all run at altitude and given conversions.

So how generous are these conversions? Does a 4:01 mile at 5400 feet really translate to 3:55? Some will say yes, others will say not quite, but I don't think there is any debate when I say that running at altitude is harder than at normal elevation. When I'm running at college, the elevation is about 2000 feet higher than at home and I can definitely notice the difference.

But are we now getting to the point where programs will seek to run at altitude in hopes that they can get a nice enough conversion? It's not a ridiculous theory when you consider that the top five times for the mile in the NCAA never actually broke four minutes.

But historically, some of these times have shown to be accurate. In 2015, no one took Cristian Soratos seriously when he was given a mile conversion of 3:56 from his original performance of 4:07. But people surely noticed when he won the UW Invite in an unconverted time of 3:55.

On the other hand, New Mexico's Elmar Engholm earned a converted time of 3:57 after running 4:03 in 2015. He has yet to break four minutes since then.

BULLISH: BYU 3k Runners
BYU isn't slowing down after their successful cross country season. So far, three Cougars have dipped under the eight minute mark (without a conversion) which is something that no other team can not boast at this time.

The biggest surprise of this bunch was seeing Clayton Young run 7:49 and make himself a heavy favorite to earn All-American. Rory Linkletter and Jonathan Harper were 7:58 and 7:59 in that same race.

As of right now, all three of these guys are in the top 16 of the NCAA standings and would automatically qualify for the national championship. Although those times probably won't hold, I imagine Linkletter and Harper will pursue faster times within the next week or two.

Let's also not forget that teammate Chase Horrocks currently owns a time of 8:05 which was run in early December. He could very easily dip under eight minutes with another two months of training under his belt.

BYU might be the deepest distance program on the track this year...

BEARISH: Established Stars
While some individuals have thrived and prospered in a new season, others have struggled. Let's start with Jefferson Abbey who has continued his poor streak of races from cross country. The Colorado State senior and former All-American has run times of 4:32 (mile), 8:35 (3000), and 2:01 (800) so far this season...ouch. It's tough to see a light at the end of the tunnel for Jefferson, but you hope that someone of his talent level is able to rebound sometime soon.

At Oklahoma, Jacob Burcham is struggling to get "back on track" after two brutal mile performances. The first being a 4:20 and the other being a 4:11. When you reflect on his breakout year in 2016 (in which he earned a mile PR of 3:57), you have to think that he would be able to qualify for the NCAA championships once again. But like Blake Haney, that may not be the case in 2017.

Others like Dylan Lafond, Henry Wynne, and James Gowans haven't struggled as much as Jefferson or Burcham, but they're not quite where they were last season when you consider a few unexciting performances so far this season.

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So what are your thoughts? Who do you think is about to have a huge finish to the season? Who is going downhill? What is still up for debate? A lot of those questions may be answered this weekend.