District 1 Championship Preview

District 1 AAA

http://pa.milesplit.com/articles/240975/?page=5

District One is always tricky because a) they allow scratches so team’s enter basically everyone who has qualified and b) there are trails and finals to be concerned with. So these predictions will likely be terrible, but hey I’ll give it my best shot anyway. I’m a professional, dang it.

With the exception of the 3200 (which has no trials), I’ll give you my pick for which teams/individuals will qualify for the finals and then I’ll narrow it down to a top 8. I’m assuming that D1 will send 8 per event because that’s how they typically operate, but that could end up being optimistic (especially in the 32).  

3200m

Rusty Kujdych is the defending champion in this race and will enter as a heavy favorite. He’s clocked the best time in the district so far and is the reigning and XC and indoor state champion. Rusty also scratched out of the 1600 so you can bet all his focus will be on his marquee event. I would say this is a race for second, but last year we saw Will Griffen step up and nearly take an upset victory. Anything can happen when you are talking about the best guys in the state.

One of those best guys in the state is Henderson’s Spencer Smucker. He’s been mainly a miler in recent years but, after a 9:18 3200 at his home invite, it seems like Spencer is ready to try the longer event. He will bring a good combination of speed and strength to the event (has 4 XC state medals) and appears to be a safe bet for a state qualifying spot. He’s also entered in the 16 (which he might double up with), but I don’t think the trials in that race will take much sting out of his legs.

With Liam Conway expected to be a scratch, Tyler Rollins of DT West is the next highest seed. Rollins has past state qualifying experience, finished third at the indoor state meet for 3,000 meters and seems poised to deliver a big time at Coatesville. I think he rounds out a clear cut top 3.

Outside of that trio, it’s hard to pin down the state qualifying field. There are 16 guys between 9:34 and 9:42 (which is outside the SQS). Some of them are not a lock for this event (Brendan O’Toole, for example, is qualified in all 3 distance events) either. On paper, this doesn’t seem like a stacked group, but I felt like year’s past (particularly 2015) were similarly seeded and then those guys went out and blazed around the track for eight laps anyway. A few guys are going to have breakout races and my hope is that 8 guys go through to states out of this district.

So who is it going to be? Well, I’m crossing out Lewin and Forney (I think they go 16) and I tentatively am crossing out McKenna (I think he ends up pulling 4x8 duties, but I feel less strongly about this one). That makes my job a lot easier, but I still have to pick five guys.

No clue what O’Toole’s plan is as his range is crazy (has a great shot at advancing in the 32 or the 8). If he’s all in on this race, I like his chances of producing a big result. I’ll go with my gut and say he tries this event and gets one of the qualifying spots. I like Payton Sewall’s chances from DT West. I think he’s going to stick close enough to Rollins to get onto the podium. I’m also going to ride with Ryan Campbell. He’s making big progress with every race back and the kid has massive talent, but it’s never easy to qualify on a short window like this.

Rounding it out I’ll throw in Ben Bunch from CB West and Cole Walker from Unionville to finish the top 8. Walker did enough at this meet last year to make me buy in to his potential. Bunch could probably deliver a strong 4x8 leg if needed, but I see him delivering a strong PR performance in the longer event.

Watch for Ethan Koza as a big sleeper. Linus Blatz will be one of the most interesting wildcards of the weekend between this event and the 16 (and Owen J Roberts in general will be interesting to watch).

My picks (all advancing to states on time):

Kujdych, Rollins, Smucker, O’Toole, Campbell, Sewall, Walker, Bunch

4x800m

So I’m going to push through a few major names right off the bat to finals – CB West, Pennridge, CB East. I’ll talk more about them later. I would normally push Pennsbury straight through as well, but I do find it a little odd that Javier Linares is not listed on their 4x8 entries. I’m not sure if this means they will scratch the 4x8 the way they did indoors (when they didn’t have Scratchard) or I’m just reading way too much into this and they will be title contenders. I’ll slot them into the finals on pure upside, but it will be interesting to see how they shake out.

Pennsbury is the leader in the clubhouse of the “if they go for it, they’ll be a finalist” category which also includes Spring Ford (popped a very quick 7:56 and has a strong recent history of showing up in the clutch), Boyertown (their 7:57 was a long time coming and may just be the tip of the iceberg for this squad) and Owen J. Roberts (if you have Conway and Malmstrom on the squad, you don’t need much else to break 8 minutes). My gut says Spring Ford and Boyertown push their chips in for the 4x8 while Owen J holds out their two stars.

We also have some interesting teams from further down the performance list. Radnor at #19 and Penn Wood at #18 both have high upside. It seems like Penn Wood is an annual “breaks out at districts” type squad. Radnor may have individual goals that trump the relay.

CR South was awesome during the indoor season, but enters this meet with just an 8:05 seed. Which CR South will we get on race day? They have a game changer in Collin Ochs, but he may be better off focusing on the individual event (where he is quickly gaining steam). DT West has a team line up and even without some of their flashy names, has the pieces to put together a time under the SQS. I’m a huge fan of Haverford’s squad. If they load up the relay, they seem like a really dangerous sleeper squad.

One more interesting (but probably unlikely wrinkle) – is there any way that Rusty hops on the 4x8 alongside sub 2 man Matt Taylor and tries to drag his relay to the final? It seems unlikely, but was fun to mention.

In the end, here are my projected 12 finalists: CB West, Pennridge, CB East, Pennsbury, CR South, Spring Ford, Boyertown, Bensalem, Haverford, DT West, Penn Wood, Radnor

Once we get to the finals, I think this ends up a two horse race for the championship. As mentioned, I’m nervous about Pennsbury loading up the relay, but I’m confident we get to see a CB West vs. Pennridge show down. In recent weeks, CB West has emerged as the deeper team. They get a big boost from Jake Claricurzio starting to hit some elite level stuff and they have three guys who can give you a 1:55 or better depending on the day. My guess is they win the district title this weekend, but I haven’t decided about states just yet.

Pennridge is loaded on paper and if they throw out the Dimon-Brashear-Eissler-Eissler line-up, I think they can be close to their school record by season’s end. I’m not sure we see that line up during district week (Dimon has some other things that I think may keep him off this relay), but I still see this squad as a clear top 3 team in the district and potentially a gold medalist this weekend.

I like CB East’s team a lot. Their readjusted order for the conference championships really worked well. I think they are on to something and expect them to advance. I’ve bought in on the clutch factor for Spring Ford. The only potentially complicating factor is McKenna in the 3200 beforehand. I’m buying Haverford stock and think Boyertown is getting the job done as well. Bensalem has a ton of speed on that roster and I like their history excelling in this relay (plus they have one of the fastest seeds).  

If Pennsbury wants it, they’ve got that last spot (and are a top 3 squad). We will see if they load up. If not, watch for Penn Wood to do their thing and sneak into the state championships.

My picks (all the top 8 advance to Shippensburg on time):

CB West, Pennridge, Pennsbury, Haverford, CB East, Spring Ford, Boyertown, Bensalem

1600m

Again, we’ve got a tricky group of entries to skim through. Now look, there’s not a ton of downside here for guys to enter this event if their focus is the 3200. The heats aren’t usually super taxing (depending on scratches and doublers) and, if you make to the finals, you double your opportunities for a state qualifier. That being said, if your focus is the 800, I think it’s safe to bet you are scratching. So that should throw out at least Jonah Hoey, Matt Eissler, Jed Scratchard and Ethan Zeh. Plus, some guys will either load up on the 4x8 or use the opportunity to get an extra little bit of rest relative to the competition in the 32.

In addition, the 4x8-16 double is no walk in the park. The top guys can usually handle it (especially if the 4x8s can coast a bit), but every once in a while there’s a few guys who have a hard time and blow up.

OK, with all that in mind, here are my picks for the 12 guys to advance to the finals (this was not easy): Liam Conway, Evan Kaiser, Josh Lewin, Kyle Malmstrom, Zack Forney, Avery Ledererer, Spencer Smucker, Jacob McKenna, Linus Blatz, Zach Smith, Aiden Tomov, Frank Brown

The back half of the finals is going to be pretty wild. It’s really hard for me to speculate about how good guys will feel coming off that 4x8 (and which goes will double up 16-32).

In the finals, I think it would be a shocker to see anyone but Liam Conway holding the gold. He’s the indoor state champ and has the best seed time by far (especially if Jonah Hoey scratches for the 800 like I think he will). He’s tactically sound and seems like a safe bet to get the job done. That being said, he’s no lock (I believe Scarpill pulled the upset last year) and in a kicker’s race anything can happen.

Outside Conway, I think it could end up a struggle to get 8 guys under that SQS. I think a lot of guys will be tired from one race or another. This might be the event where we don’t have 8 guys advance to states. Now that I say that, we will probably have 12 guys under 4:24, but you see my point.

My guess for the autos is:

Conway, Lewin, Malmstrom, Forney, Kaiser

Then it’s tricky. I’m surprised I’m doing this, but I’ll say only those 5 advance to states. The wildcard may end up being Lederer or maybe Blatz (if he doesn’t run the 32). Brown, Tomov, Smith, McKenna or Smucker would all be easy picks if I thought they’d be fresh as well, but realistically I think only maybe Brown can’t be expected to be on their second race by this stage.

800m

It took me a while, but I think we’ve found the most stacked event in the district. We have 15 guys under 1:57 and it’s not crazy to imagine all 15 of them lining up for this race. Maybe the CB West guys don’t go for it if they are feeling invested in the 4x8-4x4 (last year they all scratched) and perhaps the OJR pair of Conway and Malmstrom prefer to focus exclusively on the 16 (Conway was a surprise scratch in the 800 last year, but this year I think he tries the double).

And that doesn’t even count the guys over 1:57 that I think have a great shot at advancing. I’m high on Sam Early from CR North, I wouldn’t sleep on Abington’s Josh Coleman and this kid Connor Hurst from Upper Moreland has been heating up too. Best of luck to everyone competing in this event and hopefully they keep the prelims small enough that everyone can stay on their feet.

This is going to be wild trying to sort out the finalists but here are my projections:

Jonah Hoey, Aidan Sauer, Matt Eissler, Collin Ochs, Liam Conway, Hudson Delisle, Ethan Zeh, David Endres, Jarnail Dhillon, Sam Earley, Jed Scratchard, Michael Clark

Geez, that was tough to type. I’m banking on the CB West guys not competing in this event, but if they do that’s bumping out some really talented names.

OK, now I need to bring this 12 down to 8?

Well, thus far this spring, Jonah Hoey has been the story. It wasn’t that long ago that his brother entered the district meet as a sophomore in the 1600 and left victorious. Now Jonah will enter this race as the favorite to keep things in the family. The only guy I can see giving him a challenge is Pennridge’s Matt Eissler, who is likely going to be on the double from a big carry in the 4x8. I’m a big Eissler fan and think he could pull this out, but I also have a habit of going with the fresh legs. I’ll take Hoey by a nose in what would be a huge victory for the sophomore. It sets up an outdoor states race where the two favorites for gold would both be sophomores (Hoey and Tyler Shue) which seems absurd to have event typed out.

My picks for the top 8:

Hoey, Eissler, Sauer, Ochs, Conway, Delisle, Clark, Earley

District 1 AA

http://pa.milesplit.com/articles/240975/?page=4

3200m

Jack Miller and Josh Jackson will start their first of what could be three individual races with the 3200 meters. The pair of Jenkintown runners will be heavy favorites as they are the only two guys under 10:30 (and they are sub 10). Both have also already pocketed XC state medals during this year. The tricky thing is that only one of these two guys is guaranteed a spot in the state meet, the other has to hit the time. So will they time trial together to both advance to Shippensburg or trade off events (they are also the two top seeds in the 1600). My money is on Miller to advance here (and I think he could make serious noise at states in the 3200) and I don’t think these guys will tire themselves out in this event – in fact Jackson may not even run it.

4x800m

Dock Mennonite has historically been the power of this event in recent seasons. They have the best 4x4 and 4x8 by seed and, with Jenkintown’s top two guys off the relay, it seems like Dock should roll to the victory in this four team field.

1600m

As alluded to previously, the Jenkintown boys will enter as heavy favorites in the 1600 just like the 32. Again, only one of them is guaranteed a spot at states. In this event, Jackson is only seeded at 4:39, a good ways away from the 4:31 time he would need to qualify for states if he were to finish 2^nd in this race. On paper, Miler has been the better miler this year, but who knows if this pair has a plan for getting both to states. I say Jack wins, but we may see Josh toe the line in a week out west.

800m

Miller and Jackson will contest their third race of the day, but this time they won’t be the favorites. Both Jenkintown guys are seeded at 2:03, but Ian Anderson of Dock and Michah Shaw of Phil-mont have clocked 2:02 this season and are the top two seeds. Shaw is the top returner from last year, having finished in 3^rd that spring. Anderson has a faster season best at 2:02 and has 50.99 400 speed, but he’s going to double up with the 4 and the 8 this weekend. That could lead to an upset by Shaw. For the official prediction, I’ll pick Anderson, but I gave Shaw some serious thought.

If Miller or Jackson can pull out the win, it could be the end of an epic triple. There is a short list of all timers who have swept the distance events at a district championship.