AAA 3200m
The Stage
Here we go. I have no idea what order any of you guys
read these in (or in what order I will post them up), but in terms of the order
I wrote these bad boys in, this was my last one. I’m going to try not to cry as
I set the stage for the last state championship preview I’ll ever write for my
blog. Hopefully I’ve saved the best for last.
The biggest story in this race has to be Neshaminy’s
Rusty Kujdych. As a senior, Kujdych has been nothing short of incredible on the
track. He won a state championship in cross country, posting together an impeccable
record against the best competition in the area and qualifying for the
Footlocker Finals. During indoors, Kujdych smashed his previous best in the
mile and rolled to a state championship in the 3k with one of the largest
margins of victory we’ve seen. Now, much like Justified, he’s one leg away from
the Triple Crown.
We haven’t seen a Triple Crown winner since Jason Weller
(not to be confused with Jayson Miller) pulled off the feat in 2006-2007. We
haven’t seen a AAA XC State Champ win an outdoor state gold since 2009 (Jimmy
Tarsnane) and the last three XC state champs have finished no better than 8th
in the 3200. So Kujdych is fighting an uphill battle.
The good news is that last year Nate Henderson came
pretty close to that Triple Crown. He won the second two legs (a combo that
hadn’t been completed since Weller) and was second in XC. If not for the
arrival of all-time great Noah Affolder, the Triple Crown would have been his.
But there’s bad news too and that bad news is Noah Beveridge. The Butler senior
has been waiting patiently for his first state championship and after leaving
the last two dances with silver, he’s hungry for gold. Beveridge has run 4:12
and 9:09 this outdoors and likely contributed an impressive 4x8 split to the
Butler relay (he flashed 1:54 speed last year on at least one split).
For whatever reason, the Kujdych-Beveridge match-up
reminds me of a 2014 match-up between Tony Russell and Ross Wilson. In that
race, Russell was going for his own triple crown of sorts: he had won the XC
state title and the indoor mile meaning a 32 gold would give him three. Wilson
had been consistently topped by Russell, but on that final lap, Ross found
another gear and dug deep to finally knock off Tony in their last head to head
contest. In the process, Ross clocked an 8:56 to break a long standing state
record that seemed like it would never be broken (ironically, Ross’s record was
broken a year later). Maybe Beveridge can find that Ross Wilson-esque gear and
bring home the gold. Either that or Kujdych goes Secretariat on everybody.
Or, I suppose, neither of those could happen.
The Race
Believe it or not, there are other people in this race
besides the pair I’ve just droned on about for a few precious final paragraphs.
Interestingly, if you look at the performance list, you can see a lot of guys
with times closely packed together near these top two. District One has a
couple great runners from great programs in Spencer Smucker and Ryan Campbell.
Those guys sit at #3 and #4 in the seedings and are on the short list of sub
9:20 guys. Campbell is rounding back in to form at the perfect time, dropping a
big season’s best at districts and indicating he can be in the conversation for
ore in Shippensburg. Meanwhile, Smucker has found good success in his new event
and was the closest runner to Kujdych at the Henderson Invite 3200 earlier this
month.
Dan McGoey of North Allegheny deserves a mention. The
sophomore established himself as a prime time performer at this past fall’s
state championships. It was here that McGoey took third overall, behind just
Kujdych and Beveridge, and nearly even took down the reigning WPIAL champ in
the final straight. It marked the third straight year a sophomore placed in the
top 3 in the AAA state championship (a previously absurd concept by the way).
The last two guys? Sam Affolder (2nd in the 3200, 2nd in
the 1600) and Josh Hoey (3rd in the 1600). McGoey hasn’t shown quite
the same speed that these two have (they were 4:10ish milers), but it’s not
crazy to speculate he could place in the top 3 at another state championship
this spring like these two did.
McGoey is joined in the top 10 seeds by classmates
Christian Fitch (Fox Chapel), Cole Walker (Unionville) and Zach Leachman (Mars).
None of these three have hopped on the medal stand just yet, but they all have
a chance at bling in this race. I particularly like Fitch’s odds as he has been
an incredibly consistent presence in the long distance events recently which is
impressive for such a young talent.
Oh, by the way, the AA XC State Champ is in this race.
People may not realize (he’s seeded 23rd), but Isaac Davis of Jersey
Shore is in this field and you can bet he’s going to try and pull off the
upset. Davis has had by far his best season on the track which comes fresh on
the heels of a monster XC campaign. I don’t think people quite realize how good
Davis was during XC, particularly his 15:56 time at states (which came with a massive
margin of victory). He’s beaten Brendan Miller this year and has clocked 9:24
for 3200. I could see him dropping a big PR.
The District 3 champ, Andrew Foster, has scratched this
event to focus on the 4x8. That opens the door for Mechanicsburg senior Morgan
Cupp. Cupp was a stud during XC and has had some nice flashes of brilliance on
the track as well. The loss to Foster last week should act as some extra
motivation heading into the state meet, but he will need to get past that 9:30
barrier which has been blocking his path to date. Ian Miller of Manheim
Township, an indoor state medalist at 3k, seems like a potential sleeper from
that district as well.
Some other quick hits: I’m in Nate Price’s corner. I
think the General McLane junior would be in the state title talks if he was in
AA (like he is for XC). This race may be a bit too quick for him, but I think
the last medal spots are wide open. Carlisle has three guys in this race and LaSalle
has two. I never count out those programs at the state championships. The
District 11 guys sitting at #11 and #12 are good value picks in prediction contests
as well. The District has more than held its own in AAA the best few seasons,
most notably seeing Colin Abert nearly win a state championship in 2015 (to
bring things full circle, Abert would have been under Ross Wilson’s state
record, but Zach Brehm beat him to it with an 8:55.60).
OK, for the last time, here are my picks:
8. Jacob McKenna 9:24.00
7. Ryan Campbell 9:22.31
6. Morgan Cupp 9:21.70
5. Spencer Smucker 9:19.48
4. Dan McGoey 9:19.45
3. Isaac Davis 9:12.99
2. Rusty Kujdych 9:04.88
1. Noah Beveridge 9:04.25
I highly recommend watching the Wilson-Russell dual on youtube. It's an incredibly fun race to watch and Wilson shows exemplary heart in the final stretch. I agree that Beveridge pulls this off. I don't really believe in happy endings and I just can't see Kujdych taking the triple. But this might be my anti-Neshaminity bias as Rusty has continued to prove me a fool. He is a stud and I really hope he imagines himself winning this race. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGtRw_A3Roc
ReplyDeleteI really like 2 sophomores in the medals and I think Christian Fitch will break 9:20. He has been flitting under the 9:30s and has completed some impressive doubles. I think he sticks his neck in there and gets the better of McGoey.
As my last comment on an Etrain post I have to shoutout lastly my CRN boy Ryan Campbell. I really like the strides he is making and I think he runs similar to his 9:14 last year for a top 5 finish. CRN's distance program looks like it is about to fall apart and it is doubtful they will make states in XC next year (which would be the first time since 2006). I'd like Campbell to go out with a nice race to add a cap to what has been an awesome era of Cappeci's and Campbell's with many inbetween under Marringtons coaching.
That Wilson-Russell race was epic. I think Wilson would have settled for 2nd if Martin didn't pass him with 200 to go and get him going.
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