AA 800m
The Stage
A year ago, Kamil Jihad of Neumann Goretti and Tyler
Leeser came battling down the final straightaway in the quest for gold in the
open 800, only to have Rob Reichenbaugh of Freeport turn the tables on everyone
with an upset victory. The homestretch probably left a bitter taste in both
juniors mouths and now they will each have their chance for vengeance as Jihad
and Leeser enter as co-favorites in this event.
This match-up is three years in the making as, in the
blazing fast 2016 edition of this race, Jihad and Leeser both medaled in the
race with then bests of 1:52 and 1:55. Last year, neither could top that seed
as Jihad was forced into more of a front runner role while Leeser was doubling
off the 1600. Now both will be fresh (or at least fresher as Leeser may be
featured in the 4x8 finals) and will hold nothing back in their last chance at
a first state gold.
The Prelims
The 800 prelims are perhaps the most lethal heats in the
state meet. In order to qualify for Saturday’s final, runners must survive the
preliminary round by placing top 4 in one of the two qualifying heats. If they
don’t get one of these automatic spots, they must have one of the fastest four
times of the remaining runners.
With 14 guys packed together, sprinting for position,
things can get crowded. Experience and poise are always important at states,
but their value is almost double in an 800 prelim. I’ve got to give priority in
my projected qualifiers to the guys who I’ve seen deliver before in this same
spot. Ultimately, here’s the dozen advancers as I see them: Tyler Leeser, Tyler
Bailey, Griffin Sites, Kamil Jihad, Zach Tingley, Christian Tanner, Jake
Schneider, Liam Aro, Ben Reisenweaver, Sam Cunkelman, Sebastian Brudnicki and
Josh Yourish.
I really had a hard time piecing together this field.
There is a long list of guys with 4x8 duties to pair with their 800 prelims.
While I think that double is easier than the 4x8-16, it’s still not a walk in
the park against state caliber guys. You’ve also got guys with 16-8 doubles
factoring in, another tricky scheduling move.
Ultimately, I sided often with experience and picked some
guys from programs that have a strong recent history of showing up for this
meet (like Seneca and Boiling Springs) and then just jumped on the D2 bandwagon
as I learned a year ago not to underrate these guys.
The Finals
With all due respect to Tyler Bailey (who has had a
monstrous season to date), I think this race will be between Jihad and Leeser
for the title. Both guys have to really be locked in after last season and,
unlike Bailey, this race will be the #1 goal. In recent results, Leeser has
been the better of the two. He beat Jihad last year in this event (on the
double) and comes in with the best seed time, almost 4 second ahead of Jihad’s.
However, I’m not sure those seeds are comparable as Kamil didn’t run in a
district meet with the standards of D4. If Kamil has his best day, he’s going
to be hard to stop and his PR (1:52 low) is out of this world.
I suspect these two will battle early and things may end
up being close all the way to the line (especially if Leeser helps on the pace
early and Jihad can relax a bit more), but it feels like it’s going to be
Leeser’s year for the gold to me.
I’m very excited to see Bailey mix it up with these two.
I’m not sure how much he will have left after the 4x8, but sometimes guys get
an extra spring if they have a big carry early in the day to give them
confidence. Of course, you also see guys who already have golds not be able to
find that extra gear as the fire is a little bit diminished. The knife can cut
both ways. To me, Bailey has been good enough that he deserves consideration
for a top 3 spot and is worth mentioning as an outside contender for the win,
but he will have a very tough time getting by his district rival in Leeser who
has been a step ahead thus far in 2018.
I really like the season Griffin Sites has had this year.
He’s a pretty fearless guy with excellent top end speed. He dropped a nice PR
at districts and has good state experience (he excelled here a year ago and
enters as one of the top returners). I don’t want to put too much stock in the
District 4 times (they were lightyears ahead of the other districts because of
competition/weather/etc.), but you have to note the guys who are running fast
when it counts and will have the experience running fast times to be mentally
prepared for this sort of challenge.
Christian Tanner is my wild card. Seeing him race at the
District 9 championship was impressive and he flashed a lot more raw speed than
I thought he would have. This is a junior with XC hardware already in his
trophy case. It’s not unreasonable to guess he will add some track bling
sometime soon.
All that said, here’s who I’m giving my medal-winning
spots to:
8. Liam Aro 1:56.92
7. Josh Yourish 1:56.58
6. Christian Tanner 1:56.17
5. Zac Tingley 1:55.95
4. Tyler Bailey 1:55.50
3. Griffin Sites 1:55.14
2. Kamil Jihad 1:54.09
1. Tyler Leeser 1:53.16
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