District 7 Championship Preview

District 7 AA

http://www.wpial.org/stuff/17-18/trk/trk%20ind%20final%20tfmm5heatsheet2col.pdf

4x800m

Riverside enters as the clear #1 seed in the championships, boasting a season’s best of 8:15.13. Other than this squad, there are no teams under the state qualifying standard (and no teams under 8:30) thus far. However, there are five spots up for grabs to these teams, meaning qualifying for Shippensburg may not be tied to a blazing time.

I’d bet on Riverside to take the win, given their success to date, but after this team things get pretty open. Winchester Thurston certainly has the potential to drop a massive time (they have 2 guys under 2 minutes on paper), but I’m not projecting their “A” team to take the track. That being said, we saw during XC that this squad is deep enough to punch a ticket to states anyway if they chase it at all. I don’t know exactly where they fit in, but I think they’ll be top 5.

Among my other picks are Shenango (liked their XC squad, they are among the leaders in this event with potential to improve), Freedom, Trinity Christian and Deer Lakes. In theory, if I have Winchester Thurston in, then I need one of those four teams to drop out. I’ll guess Freedom drops out, but I don’t love that pick as they’ve got some really talented pieces.

I’ll be honest, I don’t have much of a read on this event as things stand. I’ll mostly be watching this race to see which teams breakout and push Riverside (if any). That should tell us more about what to expect at states.

My prediction is: Riverside, Deer Lakes, Trinity Christian, Shenango, Winchester Thurston and then Freeedom being the first team out with a lot of potential to jump one of these squads if they have a big race.

1600m

It’s going to be the Tristan Forsythe show at the WPIAL championships. The senior is slated to run the 1600 and 3200 with hopes of leaving the meet with a pair of golds. First will be the 16 where Tristan enters as the defending state champion. His season best of 4:14 is well ahead of the next closest competitors and it wouldn’t be surprising if that’s how the final standings look as well. It doesn’t seem to me like Forsythe is likely to chase a fast time and I believe his kick is strong enough to roll to a victory. Maybe a low 4:20s type race.

Behind Forsythe, the battle for the remaining 4 state qualifying spots should be interesting. Forsythe’s teammate Gordon Pollock is seeded 3^rd based on his 4:30 1600 best, but he’s actually run much quicker for the full mile. I have to imagine the talk in the Winchester Thurston locker room is a 1-2 finish in this event and Pollock seems poised to get there. The biggest challenge for him will likely be Chris Kocent of OLSH. He’s run 4:29 and has been a consistent presence near the top of the WPIAL standings throughout his career (particularly XC).

The remaining two state qualifying spots are up for grabs. Ethan Stroebel is next fastest on paper (4:36), but there is a long list of guys who could knock him out of qualifying position. Some sleepers you may not be looking at too closely include Jonathan Asay and Michael Komaniak. Honestly, I’d be pretty surprised if the state qualifying group didn’t include a runner from Quaker Valley – my money is on Dan Ford. And could Sean Heintzleman make it three for Winchester Thurston? I don’t think that would be too crazy to see, assuming he doesn’t have 4x8 duties slowing him down.

Ultimately, I think only the top 5 will advance to states (cut off is 4:31.13 for non-automatics which may be too steep). My picks are Forsythe, Pollock, Kocent, Stroebel and Ford. Yes, that is very chalky of me, but I think that’s how it shapes up.

800m

As much as Forsythe is sure to grab headlines during this meet, WT’s Gordon Pollock has a chance to really make a name for himself as well. His recent 1:57.97 performance in the 800 makes Pollock the #1 seed in the event. He could be the favorite for the WPIAL championship. However, he will have to handle the 16-8 double, which is no easy task. I think that will open the door for Josh Yourish of Deer Lakes to take the title.

This race seems ripe for some breakout star. I have no clue who it could be, which is why I’m sticking to the clear favorites, but keep an eye out for a sleeper. Maybe it will be Aiden Brewer of Greensburg Salem or perhaps Ari Kendra of 4x8 favorites Riverside. Your guess is better than mine at this point.

Here’s my picks in this one: Yourish, Pollock, Kendra, Kott, Brewer.

3200m

There are few things better than a 3200 under the lights. The WPIAL championships distance events will close out with a late night 8-lapper to send the last five (at least) individuals to states. The cut off here is 9:48 which could end up coming into play (especially if Forsythe is aggressive with the early pace), but my gut says only the top 5 will advance out of this one.

Forsythe will enter as a big favorite with his two closest competitors also coming from Winchester Thurston’s gymnasium. For Forsythe, like many top guys, the state race is really his focus. Will he even contest this event at states? That’s my number one question. Heck, Tristan may not even contest this event at districts if he likes how the 16 goes (or maybe he jumps in to pace Routledge and Malone to the state standard). I’m guessing he runs the 32 to keep his options open (not sure what the easier event for him to win at states would be or if he would like to try the double) and he probably walks away from this race comfortably victorious.

Behind him, there will be some big pressure on the youngsters of Routledge and Malone. They have been spectacular so far this season, dating back to the fall, but the pressure will be on in this race with a state berth on the line. Trying to knock them from the top 5 will be Adam Hessler (super talented sophomore), Zach Gould, Ben Barnes (experienced and strong) and other sleepers (I like Lukas Dunaway as a potential party crasher). In the end, I think it’s going to be tight for that 5^th spot. Routledge seems quick enough to get in, but Malone, only a freshman, may have a fight on his hands for the final qualifying spot

Here’s my pick for top 5 and the full state qualifiers: Forsythe, Routledge, Barnes, Gould and Hessler. I think Hessler-Malone and potentially someone from the Dunaway-Liu-Asay tier of guys is the battle to the line for states.

District 7 AAA

http://www.wpial.org/stuff/17-18/trk/trk%20ind%20final%20tfmm5heatsheet2col.pdf

4x800m

It’s always difficult to project exactly which runners will line up for their respective 4x8s. In an event like this, where there are so many teams with high upside, it’s particularly agonizing. Personally, I think basically all the top squads will go for it in this event. The biggest question marks are Butler (do they run Beveridge?) and Seneca Valley (they haven’t seriously pursued this relay all year), both of which I think end up competing for the gold.

Mount Lebanon seems the safest bet for the victory. They’ve run 8 flat and they have the deepest stable of individuals. I really like what I saw from their relay indoors and its clear Nate Everhart is developing into a star. I’m in this team’s corner. I’m betting on sub 8 this week and then maybe sub 7:50 before the season ends. I think they are that good.

But Seneca Valley has the chance to be a buzz saw. If Owori, Ketler, Dixon and Bellack are on this relay, they may end up my pick to win states. Remember, that same crew last year were the district champs and rolled to 7:40s clockings in the prelims and finals at states. They also are the reigning indoor state champs in the DMR. I like this squad’s potential a lot and, if they load up the relay, think they will end up winning a second straight district title.

Butler has serious potential in this race as well. They were 6^th last year in 8:02, just missing states. This year, I think they come back with a vengeance. If Beveridge is running anchor for this squad, they should be under 8 minutes. It’s not a one man team (they have the potential to even make states without Noah like Seneca Valley did without Kolor a few years back) and they are likely hoping for gold in this event as well. It’s a confident bunch with good reason to be confident.

Then you have the always dangerous North Allegheny. They punched yet another ticket to states last year (8 flat for 4^th) and they are better on paper to start 2018. Zach Ehling is having a terrific season, they have a deep core with Phillips and Turkovich and a potential x-factor to throw in with McGoey. This is another team that seems destined for a sub 8 minute clocking in this race.

So those are four teams right there that could end up your automatic qualifiers. That brings to mind the SQS (8:02.04) which should be meaningful to more than one team. I personally think Norwin has a chance to pop off a big result. 8:02 may be too rich for their blood but, on paper, they are way better than the 8:18 seed. Indiana is one of my favorite relays as well. They ran 8:01 for 5^th last year and should be in a similar position this year. They’ve only run 8:11 to date, but sub 8 seems very, very possible for them. I think Branan could have a 1:55ish type day if they need it. And don’t sleep on Franklin Regional. They were a surprise state finalist last year and, although they lost a big piece in Provenzo, still have Matt Busche to provide a quality anchor split.

So who is getting in? Ultimately here are my picks: Seneca Valley, Mount Lebanon, Butler, North Allegheny for the autos with Indiana getting in on time. I wanted to pick more squads to advance under the SQS, but couldn’t quite bring myself to do it.

1600m

Last year, Le’Shawn Huff surprised the entire 1600 field with his narrow victory over South Fayette’s Sam Snodgrass. This year, Huff won’t be sneaking up on anybody. The defending champion has run 4:25 and 1:56 this year and is again among the top seeds. However, I think most would agree that a second straight victory for Huff would qualify as an upset. Snodgrass is back and ready to reclaim the title he was denied a year ago. The senior has already ran 4:21 this year which makes him the #1 seed. Cameron Binda owns a 4:22 best and was an indoor state medal winner. He qualified for states last year in this event and will not have 4x8 duties to worry about in 2018.

Two runners that will (likely) have 4x8 duties to worry about are Patrick Anderson and Sam Owori. Although these two are among the top seeds, they will have tricky doubles with the tight window between the relay and the mile. Owori struggled a bit with this double last year (he was 6^th in 4:32), but he’s gotten a lot stronger as a junior. I’m an Anderson fan and I think he could be a sleeper, but I’m not ready to throw him in the mix if he’s got a hard 4x8 leg in him.

This field has a long list of compelling participants. Greensburg Salem has added both Mark Brown and Dylan Binda to this field. Dylan is the surprise as he’s primarily been 800 focused so far, but a 4:26 time in his last outing indicates he may be ready for a transition. Brett Brady has run 4:23 and was an XC state medalist. He seems like a good bet to advance to states in this event given his credentials. A big sleeper could be Czar Tarr. His seed time blends in with the group at 4:28, but Czar was a top 20 finisher at states in XC and can pack a punch in the big moments.

This one was really tough for me to call. Only four guys have the SQS on paper (4:24.22), but it feels like this is a deeper field than that. Ultimately, my picks for the state meet are the following: C Binda, Snodgrass, Brady, Huff for the autos. Then I’ve got some internal debate going on the remaining spots. I’ll say Owori sneaks under the SQS and then at least one from the Brown-D Binda-Anderson group (my guess is only Brown, but I’ll be kicking myself if Dylan has a big day). So that is six guys in total for the state meet.

800m

Another awesome, wide open distance race at the WPIAL championships. The #1 seed is Mount Lebanon’s Nate Everhart which feels crazy to say as he wasn’t getting much talk until right up to the deadline. Nate memorably ran 1:57.23 a year ago, making him a state qualifier by the skin of his teeth. Now he has bigger dreams of not just one, but two district championships (counting the 4x8 in there). But the same dreams are likely in the mind of Seth Ketler of Seneca Valley. Ketler opted out of the 16 in favor of the 8 where he was a big early season winner with his 1:56.24 time. Ketler has been a monster after since his fantastic WPIAL XC finish and the guy could cement himself among the greats with a victory in this event.

Le’Shawn Huff suddenly became a title contender in this event. On the double, he ran a 1:56.7 which, ironically, may have given him better odds of qualifying for states in the 800 than in the 1600 (the event he won last year). Throw in past state qualifiers in this event like Matt Busche (1:56.92 seed), Nick Gabrielli (1:58.17) and Zach Ehling (1:57.12) and you’ve got yourself a hodgepodge of potential winners.

This one is really tricky to call and the state qualifying picture is very cloudy. Heck, event that slow heat (which includes 6 sub 2 guys by the way) is going to be something to behold. 

Here’s my best guess for how it shakes out: Ketler, Busche, Everhart, Ehling and then I think there will be another couple guys who get in by hitting the time – Gabrielli and Kostelansky. The Kostelansky pick may be bold, but I’m feeling the Butler vibe today. If Kendall Branan wasn’t in the 400, I’d have him in the qualifying picture as well, but that 400-800 double really scares me, especially for a sophomore.

3200m

I’m excited to see Noah Beveridge race the 3200 because he is one of our state’s best runners, but I’m not expecting anything crazy out of him in this race. In fact, I’d be less likely to pick him for gold in Shippensburg if he ran sub 9 than he doesn’t (thinking back to the Matt McGoey moment a few years earlier). I can’t wait for Beveridge-Kujdych so I’m hoping both guys don’t have any issues during qualifying and we get the match up. Other than that, I won’t be paying too much attention to Noah in this race.

Instead, the battle for the other state qualifying positions will consume my attention. Dan McGoey seems like a good pick to qualify. He’s not entered anywhere else, he was 3^rd at XC states and he’s got the #2 seed of 9:24. It’s crazy to think the guy is just a sophomore. But lost in the shadow of McGoey has been Christian Fitch of Fox Chapel. The sophomore has run 9:31 already this year and seems destined to follow in the footsteps of Ethan Martin and advance along to Shippensburg. He too seems locked in for this event and, although he can’t say he was 3^rd at states, Fitch proved in the fall that he could handle the big stage as he nearly snagged a state medal. I’m excited to see these two go head to head and hopefully both punch tickets to states. And oh by the way, another sophomore in Zach Leachman enters as the #6 seed and is a bubble contender to qualify for Shippensburg.

When all is said and done, I think the story of this race will be Cameron Binda. Not only do I think Binda is going to win the 16, I think he’s got the best chance of beating Beveridge in this race (it’s a small chance mind you, but a chance nonetheless). I feel like Binda has been sitting on a breakthrough or some time and this is going to be his coming out party. Sub 4:20 and sub 9:20 is possible.

I’m very interested to see if Sam Gatti has a surprise in him (maybe he and Steffey can work together to drop a big time) and it will be fun to watch guys double back from the mile and go for a state qualifying spot (Snodgrass is obviously the biggest name, but also Volk-Klos and Czar Tarr).

Again, the main question will be how many guys can hit the SQS and advance on time beyond the top 4. The mark to beat is 9:31.71 and last year on the top 4 got under it. If Beveridge is willing to shoulder some of the load and keep the pace quick, they may be able to sneak a couple extra guys to states. But with a 4:12 1600 PR and a huge match up looming in a week, I’m not sure he has a ton of incentive to keep it quick.

So with all this in mind, here are my picks: Beveridge, Binda, McGoey, Fitch for the autos and nobody else gets under the time. I took the longest look at Leachman for a qualifying spot, but guessed he would just barely miss (rooting for him to prove me wrong). Snodgrass obviously is also very much in the mix to get a spot, but I have him also just missing out.